By early next week, a brief humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza is likely to be announced to allow for the handover of several Israeli hostages and bodies and the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza, according to two informed Egyptian sources.
The sources said there has been work on several scenarios for a ceasefire, some short-term, others longer-term and, following considerable US pressure, a two-to-three-week ceasefire should take place sometime mid-May, “provided that Israel sticks to what it says it is going to do,” said one.
According to the same sources, Washington pressed Israel to work towards a deal to come into effect ahead US President Donald Trump’s three-day visit to the region that starts on 13 May and will take in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar.
“Without this pressure, which is essentially associated with the Trump visit, things cannot move forward,” one source added.
He said any optimism over the ceasefire is strictly limited since it is likely to prove the calm before the storm, the storm being a multi-front war conducted by Israel, along with the US, that will include Gaza, Yemen, South Lebanon, and the south of Syria.
In recent days, Israel has launched repeated military strikes against Gaza, bringing ever more destruction, especially to the Strip’s crippled health system. In the meantime, the Israeli army says it is mobilising tens of thousands of reservists in anticipation of an upcoming military operation to almost fully reoccupy Gaza.
According to a UN source, there are fears that the bulk of the Gazan population will be pushed to a narrow enclave in the south. In a video posted on social media on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: “We’ll call up reserves to come, hold territory — we’re not going to enter and then exit the area, only to carry out raids afterward. That’s not the plan. The intention is the opposite.”
Israel’s plans to expand ground operations in Gaza come amid international warnings about the catastrophic health and food security situation in Gaza. Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) has warned that the Gaza Strip risks becoming a mass grave, not only for its residents but for those trying to help them. While the International Court of Justice (ICJ) has begun advisory proceedings on Israel’s obligations as an occupying power to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza, MSF said such legal steps will take time that the Palestinians do not have.
According to Claire Nicolet, head of the Emergency Desk at MSF, the situation in Gaza is catastrophic at every level, with Israel using aid as a weapon and negotiating tool.
Israel has also been intensifying its operations in the occupied West Bank, with military raids and house demolitions. Egyptian and Palestinian sources warn that Netanyahu is seeking the Gazafication of the West Bank, with an American greenlight.
Israeli operations and demolitions are essentially focused on the camps of Tulkarm, Nourashams, and Jenin. “This has been happening in parallel with the war on Gaza and started around the same time,” said the Egyptian source. According to the UN source, Israeli military operations in the West Bank and the types of weapons being used surpass anything observed for years.
The Egyptian source says the endgame for Netanyahu and his “extremist government” is clear, to evict as many Palestinians as possible and create space for more illegal Israeli settlements. He added that the Occupied Palestinian Territory is not the only front on which Netanyahu is escalating. Intensified military strikes have been taking place in South Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen “and it is likely that once the visit of Trump ends, we will see an increase in aggressive attacks.”
On Monday, Israel launched extensive military strikes on Hodeida in Yemen, the first such Israeli attack in over 10 months. They came hours after the Houthis, which have been targeting maritime trade to and from Israel for over 18 months in solidarity with Gaza, hit the outskirts of Israel’s Ben-Gurion Airport and warned international airlines from flying in and out of Israel.
Israeli strikes on Hodeida came as the US continued with the military strikes that the Trump administration started mid-March, targeting Houthi radar systems, air defences, ballistic launchers, and drone sites. On Tuesday, Israel escalated with strikes against the Sanaa International Airport. The strikes, which caused casualties and forced the airport to shut down, were not expected to be the last round of the Israeli retaliation.
The US has openly blamed Tehran for supporting the Houthis’ capabilities. According to a Muscat-based source familiar with US-Iran negotiations for a nuclear deal, Yemen, and the role of Houthis, has always been part of the talks. While the Houthis have pledged to continue attacks on commercial shipping to and from Israel in the Red Sea and missile and drone attacks on Israeli targets for as long as the Israeli war on Gaza continues, diplomatic sources say a new nuclear deal between the US and Iran could reign in the Yemeni group.
A fourth round of US-Iranian negotiations is scheduled in Muscat on Thursday. While the previous three rounds were described by the US and Iran as “positive and constructive”, it is not clear where the next round is heading given speculation over attacks that Israel launched in Iran without claiming responsibility.
“Neither Iran nor Israel will talk about it, but it is a kind of an open secret,” said the Muscat-based source.
This week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the Iranians “have to walk away from helping the Houthis, they have to walk away from building long-range missiles that have no purpose to exist other than having nuclear weapons, and they have to walk away from [uranium] enrichment”.
Rubio’s statement came shortly after US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth raised the prospect of an attack on Iran, especially for its role in Yemen: “We know exactly what you are doing. You know very well what the US military is capable of — and you were warned”. Hegseth is expected to visit Israel this week, ahead of Trump’s regional tour.
According to the two Egyptian sources, while it is hard to see a full-fledged war between Israel and Iran, attacks and counterattacks — either by proxy or directly — are likely to continue without anyone claiming responsibility.
As tensions with Yemen escalate, Saudi Arabia, which for the past two years has used its weight to suppress Houthi attacks on its southern borders, is considering its security options, including expanding cooperation with the US on Red Sea security. Informed sources say that some significant deals on this front might be signed, or at least initiated, during the Trump visit.
According to the Egyptian sources there are no easy answers to questions of Red Sea security and any plans need to take into consideration that an expanded US role in the region could herald a new round of hostile moves from radical militant groups, especially Somalia’s Al-Shabab that has been making advances during recent months.
For Egypt, whose Suez Canal revenues have been dealt a serious blow due to the Houthi attacks on commercial vessels, any further expansion of hostilities is a source of grave worry.
According to the Egyptian sources, Egypt is also worried about Israeli plans for Syria and Lebanon given Israeli attacks on south Syria this week, allegedly in support of the Druze who have suffered ethnic-based attacks, and on South Lebanon, allegedly to further incapacitate Hizbullah.
According to a former British diplomat, Netanayhu “is pushing for skirmishes with Turkey in Syria, expanding its war on Palestinians from Gaza to the West Bank to anger Jordan, and is already at odds with Egypt, ruining its attempts to push a Gaza ceasefire deal.”
The diplomat argued that it was Netanyahu who persuaded the US to launch attacks on Yemen, saying that “a wider Middle East war involving attacking Iran and probably dragging the US into the conflict would be perfect for” Netanyahu as it could help him stay in office “beyond his term that ends in October next year”.
Reported by Dina Ezzat in Cairo, Ahmed Mustafa in London, and Monjed Jadou in Gaza
* A version of this article appears in print in the 8 May, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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