With the commencement of the wheat harvesting season, the silos of Egypt’s Ministry of Supply received 60,000 tons of wheat from farmers. The ministry expects to receive four million to five million tons of local wheat, with the price per ton hovering at $288, a good rate considering that the international price of a ton of wheat has declined since late 2024 and now ranges between $250 and $260.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation expects that total domestic wheat production in 2025 will reach 10 million tons, driven by an expansion in cultivated areas now exceeding three million feddans, and enhanced yield efficiency per feddan due to reclamation initiatives and improved infrastructure and irrigation systems.
“The dispute surrounding US tariffs and retaliatory measures has led to a decrease in global wheat and corn prices,” said Mohamed Ali Ibrahim, a professor of transport and logistics economics and founding dean of the College of International Transport. “This trade conflict fuels uncertainty around international commerce,” Ibrahim said.
Egypt imported 14 million tons of wheat throughout 2024. The uptick was caused by rising domestic consumption, population growth, and lower global wheat price. Ali expects this trajectory will persist, especially with decreased global prices and indications of the onset of a global economic slowdown.
US Department of Agriculture reports suggest relative stability in global pricing, barring minor fluctuations, due to rising global wheat inventories as a result of increased production by key global suppliers in 2024, thereby expanding global supply.
The Future of Egypt for Sustainable Development Authority “has secured contracts to import 1.2 million tons of wheat since November 2024,” Hossam Al-Garrahi, vice chairman of the Supply General Authority for Commodities at the Ministry of Supply, and acting head of the Internal Trade Development Authority, told the media. Al-Garrahi said that “negotiations are underway to import 1,484 million tons over the next two months as part of Egypt’s efforts to reinforce its strategic grain reserves.”
Hussein Abu Saddam, head of the Farmers’ Syndicate, is optimistic about this wheat season because farmers were content about the delivery price which the government announced early, in October 2024.
Moreover, by the time the wheat cultivation season had begun in November last year, exchange and inflation rates were stable, which helped control production costs. The timely announcement of the pricing structure reassured and motivated farmers to cultivate wheat this year, Abu Saddam explained. “We expect the wheat supply season to be highly successful and satisfactory to all — farmers and the government,” he said.
Abu Saddam commended the Ministry of Finance for its commitment to pay farmers within three days of delivery. This successful model of cooperation between all parties is indicative of a positive 2026 season, he added.
However, Emad Al-Saei, a transportation and logistics expert, voiced concern over the broader picture of global commodity price hikes due to tariff tensions between China, the US, and the European Union. Al-Saei said that in the short term there will be a dip in global prices mainly due to China’s refusal to buy US wheat as part of its retaliatory measures. China is the largest importer of US wheat, especially soft wheat, and the US Department of Agriculture projects a 16 per cent drop in China’s imports of American wheat for 2025-26.
Al-Saei warned that in the long run, trade conflicts may spark another wave of global inflation, increase costs for end consumers, and further disrupt supply chains. Fluctuating wheat prices may impact procurement deals starting from the third quarter of 2025, he added.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 8 May, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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