Since gaining independence in 2011, South Sudan has not enjoyed stability but has instead plunged into a cycle of political and ethnic conflict, particularly between the country’s President Salva Kiir and his Deputy Riek Machar.
Despite the signing of a peace agreement between the two parties in 2018, tensions have continued to rise, most recently with clashes in the Upper Nile State and arrests among the opposition, threatening a return to full-scale Civil War.
The crisis has been further complicated by the approaching elections, which have been repeatedly delayed, deteriorating conditions in neighbouring Sudan, and external interventions that continue to fuel the conflict. Ethnic strife between the Dinka and Nuer communities remains one of the most prominent sources of division, amid weak state institutions, ongoing fractures within the army, and the presence of armed militias.
The current situation places the unity government under immense pressure and raises critical questions about the ability of both local and international actors to prevent the country from sliding into another devastating war.
Although the rivalry between Kiir and Machar is not new, it resurfaced with renewed intensity following accusations by the government that Machar’s forces were involved in acts of violence through the so-called “White Army” militia, composed mainly of members of the Nuer ethnic group. The crisis reached a peak when these forces allegedly attacked a military barracks in the town of Naser, sparking violent clashes with troops loyal to Kiir in an event that rekindled memories of the Civil War between 2013 and 2018.
Machar then escalated his rhetoric after a number of his key allies were dismissed by the president, threatening to withdraw from the 2018 power-sharing agreement and demanding the reinstatement of two dismissed officials within a short deadline. This growing rift reveals the fragility of the alliance between the two factions and highlights the deep-rooted nature of the crisis, which is increasingly defined by ethnic rivalry between the Dinka and Nuer over power and influence.
The crisis in South Sudan extends beyond the internal political rivalry between Kiir and Machar, as regional and external factors further complicate the situation. The conflict in neighbouring Sudan is playing a significant role in destabilising South Sudan, particularly amid reports that the Sudanese Army is providing support to Nuer militias in the Upper Nile State in an attempt to expand its regional influence against its rivals in the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
These interventions suggest the growing risk of South Sudan becoming a proxy battleground for competing Sudanese factions, which could ignite new waves of conflict within the country.
At the same time, the historic rivalry between the Dinka and Nuer remains a central driver of violence, exacerbated by the presence of more than 60 other ethnic groups, making national unity an increasingly elusive goal. This social fragmentation, combined with the failure to unify the military and the repeated postponement of elections, reinforces a deeply polarised political climate and heightens the risk of a return to full-scale violence.
TURNING POINT: The situation in South Sudan is heading towards a dangerous turning point due to the intensifying political and military tensions between rival factions, especially in the wake of failed peace efforts and the ineffective implementation of existing agreements.
This has triggered serious concerns within the international community, as the UN and several Western countries have expressed fears of potential state collapse and institutional breakdown if the violence continues and spreads. The targeting of UN missions and the escalation of the conflict in strategic cities like Malakal have raised the likelihood of a full-scale war that could be extremely difficult to contain.
External pressure is mounting on President Salva Kiir’s government, with widespread condemnation of attacks on civilians and international facilities. In response, the African Union (AU) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) have mobilised to salvage what remains of the peace process.
On the humanitarian and economic front, the situation continues to worsen at an alarming rate. Millions of South Sudanese live below the poverty line and rely almost entirely on international aid to survive. Malnutrition, particularly among children, has become a growing crisis, while repeated floods and forced displacements threaten to decimate the country’s already fragile infrastructure.
The ongoing conflict with neighbouring Sudan and escalating tensions in the Horn of Africa region have compounded the challenges facing South Sudan’s fragile government. The influx of refugees and internally displaced persons is intensifying competition over limited resources, heightening social and communal tensions.
Economically, the persistent unrest has led to the collapse of the national currency and a dramatic surge in the cost of basic goods, with inflation reaching unprecedented levels. Crude oil exports, the country’s primary revenue source, have virtually come to a halt. This economic collapse could ignite widespread social unrest, adding yet another layer to the political and ethnic crises already gripping the nation and turning South Sudan into a regional flashpoint with no clear path towards peace or stability in the foreseeable future.
The crisis in South Sudan has sparked a wave of regional and international reactions, most notably Uganda’s military intervention in support of the government against what it described as an attempted coup. In contrast, the United States has adopted a cautious stance, withdrawing some of its personnel and warning of a potential collapse of the peace process. The AU and several Western countries have expressed concern over the targeting of the opposition, particularly following the house arrest of Machar, viewing such actions as threats to ethnic cohesion and regional stability.
In response, the IGAD and AU have launched a joint initiative aimed at pushing forward stalled negotiations. Meanwhile, discussions are underway regarding the potential prosecution of Machar, further heightening political tensions.
Amid the ongoing escalation in South Sudan, concerns are mounting that the country is heading towards a new phase of instability, threatening to undermine efforts made towards peace since 2018.
The writer is a political researcher in African affairs.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 15 May, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
Short link: