The “order” established 80 years ago at the end of World War II has ended, its passing lamented by no one except those who benefited from it.
The quotation marks around the word “order” are deliberate. They are meant to highlight how this word has come to mean something beyond its original meaning of “system.”
A system is “a set of interconnected elements that together form a whole, with all the components working together in an interconnected manner according to certain principles, mechanisms, and procedures.” Given how they have functioned in practice, it was quite generous to apply such a definition to the arrangements designed and put into place by the victors in World War II.
The victor not only writes history, but also attempts to shape the future. It forges treaties and conventions and creates institutions to implement them while advancing the notion that anarchy is the only alternative.
The victors in World War II, led by the US, did just that. Some welcomed the rules and arrangements that had been put in place while others complied under pressure. Then the game of nations continued because stopping it would mean a return to war.
The winners in the different rounds of the international political and economic competition reaped the benefits, while the losers counted their losses and licked their wounds. Then the developing nations acquired a knack for the game and began to win one round after another. Since the mid-1990s, the centre of gravity of the global economy began to shift steadily eastwards, breaking free from the longstanding Western moorings to which it had been tethered since the First Industrial Revolution.
The methods for identifying the location of the world’s economic centre of gravity (WECG) vary, but generally they rely on variables such as relative contributions to global GDP, rates of economic growth, investment volumes, shares of international trade, and technological innovation and development capacities.
Increasingly sophisticated studies have tracked the shift of the WECG, such as those produced by economists Jean-Marie Grether and Nicole Mathys in 2009 and Danny Quah in 2011 who further developed their approach. These studies measured economic variables – including the ratio of rural to urban areas to GDP – in almost 700 locations identifiable by geographical coordinates. International research centres, building on these studies, have shown how the WECG has steadily moved eastwards, driven by investment in education, high value-added production, and financial resources.
The remarkable economic growth achieved by China, the countries of Southeast Asia, and India has brought significant increases in income and reductions in poverty. In 2020, China celebrated the eradication of extreme poverty – the first of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) – and India soon followed in 2024. The Chinese and Indian middle classes have expanded considerably and now enjoy the fruits of the development accomplished over the past three decades. These countries’ growth was not achieved by following the rules of the post-World War II game.
Meanwhile, the middle classes in Europe and the US have shrunk. This was demonstrated by economists Branko Milanovic and Christoph Lakner in their now-famous “elephant curve” – as they dubbed a graph that illustrates comparative levels of income growth and distribution worldwide from 1988 to 2008.
The studies mentioned above speak of the profound economic shifts that are reshaping the global economic balances and, consequently, the geopolitical balances of power. These shifts are manifested in the tension between the growing ambitions of the emerging powers and the determination of the traditional powers to cling to the positions they have held since World War II.
The deterioration of the middle classes in the West is expressed by mounting discontent. In Europe, they are experiencing the erosion of the excellent healthcare, education, social support and other benefits of the welfare state they have enjoyed for decades, while for many in the US the “American Dream” of prosperity has faded.
The Western middle classes have come to realise that the progress they have experienced may not be passed down to future generations, and their sense of foreboding has been exacerbated by recurrent shocks since the global financial crisis, with mounting debt and growing disparities in income and wealth distribution being seen across the Western world.
These developments have formed the fertile soil for populism, racism, and xenophobia, together with a resurgence of the extreme right. Across the West, parliamentary and presidential elections, the accuracy of which are beyond question, have reflected a loss of trust in traditional institutions and leadership.
While many see the “disruptions” associated with US President Donald Trump as being a definitive break with the past, I maintain that they can only properly be understood in the context of the rapid changes taking place in the world. The case of President Trump is the result of a situation that preceded his rise to power and will continue after his term has ended. The means and style of handling this might change, but the substance is fundamentally the same: the post-World War II era, inclusive of its various alliances and arrangements, is over.
The crucial question now is what the countries of the Global South should do in response. The first step is to understand clearly the nature and potential repercussions of the unfolding reality. If not, we may end up clutching at straws.
Some might cling to the hope that the current temporary freeze in the trade war and tariff confrontations will revive the international markets. Others might believe that the US midterm elections will apply the brakes to the current trajectory in US policy or that the presidential elections that follow will reverse the direction and return things to how they were before.
Such hopes can be dangerous when informed only by daydreams and wishful thinking.
I will turn to what the countries of the Global South should do in a forthcoming article.
This article also appears in Arabic in Wednesday’s edition of Asharq Al-Awsat.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 15 May, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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