On 17 May, Iraqi President Abdul-Latif Rashid and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohamed Shia Al-Sudani will host the opening session of the Arab Summit in Baghdad. It is one of the highest profile Arab congregations to be hosted in the Iraqi capital since the US-led invasion of March 2003.
Syrian flags are already raised in the streets of the Iraqi capital in anticipation of the second participation of post-Bashar Al-Assad Syria at the highest-level Arab meeting. Earlier this year, Syria’s Acting President Ahmed Al-Sharaa arrived in Cairo for an extraordinary summit on Gaza.
Al-Sharaa’s radical Sunni associations could cause problems given Shia-dominated Iraq was close to his ousted predecessor. According to an Arab diplomat in Cairo who spoke on Monday, there is “a possibility” that Al-Sharaa might choose to spare Iraq from any embarrassment and delegate Foreign Minister Ahmed Shibani to attend.
In the lead up to the Arab Summit, Al-Sharaa has held consultations — phone calls and meetings — with top officials in the Gulf states, including a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman and Bahraini King Hamad bin Eissa. Al-Sharaa also received a high-level Iraqi intelligence delegation in Damascus.
He was also expected to appear in Riyadh on 14 May for a possible encounter with US President Donald Trump who arrived in the Saudi capital on Tuesday for a regional tour scheduled to include the UAE and Qatar, and maybe Turkey for a possible Russia-Ukraine summit.
According to a regional diplomat, there have been preparations for “a new chapter in Syria-US” relations that include the gradual dropping of the sanctions imposed on Damascus during Al-Assad’s rule and some economic cooperation and security coordination. The expected shift will come against the backdrop of indirect and direct Syrian-Israeli talks on border security, the presence of militant resistance factions in Syria and the status of Syria’s Druze community.
The same diplomat said that whether Al-Sharaa attends the Baghdad Summit or ends up meeting Trump in Riyadh is not the issue. Syria is being fully integrated, in the region and internationally, regardless, as was demonstrated by Al-Sharaa’s visit to Paris where he met with French President Emmanuel Macron.
The participation of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in the Baghdad Summit has been confirmed. Unlike Al-Sharaa, Abbas is not expected to secure gains from either the Arab Summit or Trump’s talks in the region. According to the same regional diplomat, “what Arab countries want is an end to the devastating bloodshed in Gaza, a sustainable truce for the Israeli war and an end to the images of humanitarian disaster.” But when it comes to Israeli operations in the West Bank, he added, for the most part the Arab countries do not have much political energy or capital to spend.
Abbas’s wish to be recognised as the sole ruler of the Palestinian territories and his attempt to get the Arab Summit to denounce Hamas and other Islamist militant factions in Gaza have been mostly shrugged off by Arab countries which, according to the diplomat, want to restrict the focus to a post-Hamas management of Gaza. They are too overwhelmed with the humanitarian mess in Gaza to worry about the future of the Palestinian Authority or the political supremacy of Abbas.
The same diplomat added that after US involvement in direct talks with Hamas to secure Monday’s release of Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander, it is clear that pragmatism is the order of the day. With the help of Egypt and Qatar, the source said, Trump is currently pushing Israel for a deal that could lead to the release of more hostages and towards a sustainable truce.
The source notes that the direct talks that the US is having with Hamas, to the chagrin of both Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have proved the most successful way to secure the group’s cooperation.
He noted that the US also reached a separate deal with the Houthis in Yemen to end their attacks on commercial vessels passing through the Red Sea, away from any agreement to discontinue attacks on Israel.
In cooperation with France, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, the US is also working on “a package deal” to deflect Hizbullah in South Lebanon. The source added that the deal, which is being discussed against the backdrop of escalated Israeli strikes on alleged Hizbullah targets in the south of Lebanon, including north of the Litani River, is expected to cover Israeli-Lebanese borders, state control of Hizbullah arms, and perhaps a reduction of Hizbullah’s military capacity and a surge of investment in the Lebanese economy.
The source said that it is possible to think that at some point, not very far, “we could see serious talk” about some sort of Israel-Lebanon deal.
The future of Lebanon’s regional relations, especially with Syria and Israel, will be discussed on the sidelines of the Arab Summit. Meanwhile, Lebanon will get a resolution from the Arab Summit on the state’s right to be the sole holder of arms.
For the US and the region, diplomatic sources agree, the big prize is a new nuclear deal with Iran. Sources informed on the four rounds of US-Iranian talks that have taken place insist that progress is being made. According to a diplomatic source, who is based in Muscat that had hosted three rounds of US-Iran talks, a deal might not be around the corner but it is in the making. Iran, the source said, is seriously engaged in the details of the talks, an indication that despite disagreements in Tehran, a high-level decision has been taken to bring Iran in from the cold.
The same source said during a Gulf tour that covered Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi put forward reassuring messages about his country’s commitment to non-intervention in the affairs of neighbouring Gulf states and to a peaceful nuclear programme.
On Tuesday, following his meeting with Bin Salman that was concluded with the signing of the largest ever Saudi-US defence deal, worth $142 billion, in addition to a set of investment agreements and plans worth $600 billion, Trump said that Washington and Riyadh have become “closer than ever before”. Trump, who received a lavish welcome upon his arrival in Riyadh, also addressed investments, talking about future plans for closer cooperation between Washington and Riyadh and more Saudi investments in the US.
Later, in Riyadh, Trump was expected to hold a meeting with the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council at which Iran and Gulf security would top the agenda. According to the Muscat-based source, it is likely that economy and investments will be more of an issue for Trump’s bilateral talks in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha.
According to the Arab diplomat, matters of stability and security will take up a good part of the Arab Summit’s Baghdad declaration alongside the regular set of resolutions. It will address security in the Gulf, Red Sea, East of the Mediterranean and North Africa, amid growing concerns about another round of internal fighting in Libya. The diplomat cautioned, however, against expecting resolutions with an impact on the ground to manage conflicts in Libya, Sudan, or Somalia.
Whatever the impact of the Arab Summit, Iraq will have secured its image as a more stable country. The Iraqi government has allocated $150 million for hosting the summit and banned all demonstrations for its duration.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 15 May, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
Short link: