In recent years, the Sahel area of Africa has witnessed escalating tensions and a state of instability that threatens the future of the entire region. This situation raises serious questions about what lies ahead amid complex security and political challenges.
Chad has suffered from internal turmoil since the assassination of former president Idriss Déby in 2021. The transitional period that followed has been marked by institutional fragility, public unrest, and growing opposition, all amid rising armed attacks.
Mali has become a classic example of a state struggling to emerge from crisis, with ongoing internal conflict, foreign interventions, successive military coups, and the spread of terrorist groups in the north and centre of the country.
In Niger, the 2023 military coup further complicated the situation in a country once considered one of the West’s most reliable allies in fighting terrorism in the region and opening the door to regional and international tensions.
Similarly, Burkina Faso’s recurring coups and security vacuum have enabled armed groups to expand and terrorise local communities. Collectively, these developments place the Sahel’s future at a critical crossroads, demanding urgent re-evaluation of support mechanisms and stabilisation strategies before it is too late.
According to the 2025 Global Terrorism Index, the Sahel countries dominate the list of the world’s most terrorism-affected states. Six African nations from the region rank among the top ten globally. Burkina Faso topped the list with over 1,500 deaths from terrorist attacks in 2024 alone, averaging 14 deaths per attack and double the 2023 average.
Mali ranked fourth globally, followed by Niger in fifth place, both registering sharp increases in fatalities. Nigeria, Somalia, and Cameroon also made the list.
The surge in terrorist activity in the Sahel cannot be separated from the region’s deep-rooted structural crises. Extreme poverty, lack of development, ethnic divisions, and repeated political coups have created fertile ground for armed group expansion.
Groups like the Jamaat Nasr Al-Islam wa-Al-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State (IS) exploit institutional fragility and security gaps, especially in rural areas. Their operations are financed by illicit economic activities, such as drug-trafficking and kidnapping for ransom.
The Sahel is one of the world’s most active regions for armed groups with diverse ideologies, affiliations, and funding sources. Prominent among these are the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), the Jamaat Nasr Al-Islam wa-Al-Muslimin, and Boko Haram. Formed in 2017 through the merger of several local factions, JNIM is now a dominant Al-Qaeda affiliate with extensive influence in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
IS operates through two main branches, one in the Sahel and the other in West Africa, with a strong presence in Mali and Niger. In Nigeria, Boko Haram continues its long-standing insurgency, despite internal splits. These groups use a variety of violent tactics including bombings, armed raids, and kidnappings to expand their influence and exploit local grievances and ethnic conflicts to establish footholds.
Mali in particular is experiencing growing internal and external tensions under the military leadership of Interim President Assimi Goïta. His regime recently dissolved all the country’s political parties and suspended political activity under the pretext of preserving public order.
Externally, Mali’s relations with neighbouring Algeria deteriorated significantly after Bamako accused Algiers of downing a Malian drone, prompting both countries to recall their ambassadors and close their airspaces. These developments highlight the fragility of Mali’s political and security situation, pushing the country further into regional isolation and raising fears of broader instability across the Sahel.
Niger is also grappling with mounting security and political tensions, making it one of the most unstable countries in the Sahel. The number of terrorist attacks surged to 101 in 2024, with 930 fatalities, 499 of them soldiers, revealing the immense pressure on national forces.
The July 2023 coup exacerbated internal instability, creating a power vacuum exploited by jihadist groups like JNIM and IS, especially after the withdrawal of US forces in August 2024. The threats are not only external as internal military unrest has also emerged, most notably at the Termit Base, where mutinying soldiers detained senior officers to protest against poor conditions and delayed pay.
Burkina Faso has become the deadliest hotspot for terrorism worldwide. In 2024, the country recorded 1,532 deaths from terrorist violence, accounting for one-fifth of all such deaths globally. Despite this, the government achieved a relative reduction in attacks and casualties in the latter half of the year by implementing stricter security measures, particularly following the August 2024 massacre in Djibo that claimed 200 lives.
However, conditions in the north remain dire. Djibo remains under siege, facing critical shortages in food and medicine. Human rights concerns have also surfaced, with credible reports accusing government forces and pro-government militias of executing 100 civilians from the Fulani ethnic group in March 2024.
These accusations raise fears of ethnic conflict escalating in a country already torn by institutional weakness and fragile social cohesion.
Chad is witnessing escalating security tensions following the announcement of Mohamed Idriss Déby’s victory in the Presidential elections in May 2024. The opposition rejected the results, accusing the government of electoral fraud, which led to sporadic protests and clashes with the security forces.
Internally, political and ethnic divisions are deepening, warning of broader unrest if immediate de-escalation measures are not taken. Regionally, tensions have intensified between Chad and Sudan’s ruling Military Council, as Khartoum accuses N’Djamena of supporting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that are engaged in a bloody conflict with the Sudanese Army.
The Sahel region stands on the brink of a major security and political crisis. With terrorist threats on the rise, state institutions crumbling, and internal fractures deepening, the region faces a perilous future. Without urgent and comprehensive intervention from both local and international actors, the Sahel risks spiralling into deeper chaos and prolonged instability.
The writer is a political researcher in African affairs.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 29 May, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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