The question of why Israel has decided to attack Iran may look a straightforward one, but in fact it is not, particularly when one tries to answer it.
At first glance, some analysts, who certainly have their own reasons for saying so, said that the main reason for the Israeli military attacks on Iran that started early on 13 June was to carry out a “pre-emptive strike.”
However, rather than being aimed at thwarting an imminent Iranian military attack on Israel, as claimed by Israel, these analysts said that the attacks were instead aimed at “pre-empting” any positive outcome of the US-Iranian talks scheduled to take place in Muscat in Oman on 15 July before they had even begun.
This was possibly out of fears that the US and Iran might reach an agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue that would not meet Israeli security concerns.
However, just hours after the Israeli attacks began, some Iranian sources accused Washington of being complicit in them. US officials issued statements acknowledging that Israel had informed them in advance of its intention to launch military strikes against Iran. They said that while Washington did not participate in or help in the attacks, it stands with Israel and would contribute to its defence if Iran responded with a counter-attack.
There are five main reasons behind the Israeli attacks on Iran.
The first reason is a jump forward, maybe even into the unknown, on the part of the Israeli government, aimed at preserving the unity of the Israeli internal front and prolonging the life of the current Israeli government and prime minister. This is being attempted through the initiation of a major military conflict in the region and is taking place in the light of the failure to decisively end the war on Gaza in a way that satisfies the Israeli public and fulfils the promises made by its government to both its citizens and international allies.
It comes amidst growing international pressure, even from some of Israel’s allies, to end the war on Gaza due to its mounting humanitarian toll and the unprecedented material devastation suffered by the Palestinian people. Launching a broad, direct, and deeper military confrontation with Iran that is expected to last longer than previous ones presented itself as an opportunity to cover up the impasse in Gaza and divert domestic and international attention away from what is happening in the Strip.
The second reason for the Israeli military attacks on Iran is the effort to swiftly complete what Israel had previously been doing over earlier months, carrying out sporadic strikes against Iran that had targeted on some occasions Israeli targets inside Iran and on other occasions Iranian targets abroad, as well as more sustained and severe strikes against some of Iran’s key regional allies, particularly Hizbullah in Lebanon, Hamas and other self-proclaimed Islamist political groups in Palestine (both in Gaza and the West Bank), some pro-Iranian armed Shia militias in Iraq, and, last but not least, the Houthis in Yemen.
Militarily, Israel has succeeded in inflicting severe damage on Iran’s regional allies, particularly Hizbullah and Hamas. The latest attacks appear to directly target Iran in an attempt to weaken its military strength and nuclear programme and portray it as unable to effectively respond to Israeli attacks. If this Israeli scenario succeeds, it could pave the way, whether immediately or gradually, for Iran’s removal from the Middle East balance of power as a counterpart to Israel, a position it has held since the victory of the Iranian Revolution in February 1979.
The third reason lies in Israeli estimates that the more time passes, the more Iran will advance, particularly qualitatively, in its military preparedness, arsenal development, and effective utilisation of technological advancements, including artificial intelligence, in support of its military capabilities.
From Israel’s point of view, this would make Iran even more dangerous to its national security. The same concerns apply to the degree of progress Iran’s nuclear programme might achieve over time. Israel assessed that launching strikes against Iran’s nuclear and military programmes and infrastructure now would better serve its interests and reduce, at least in part, the damages and losses Israel might suffer from an Iranian military response.
The fourth reason pushing Israel to attack Iran now is to thwart international and regional efforts aimed at reviving the Palestinian issue on the global scene. This includes moves by key Western nations to recognise an independent Palestinian state, among them France and other European countries, and serious efforts to convene an international conference under the auspices of the United Nations to find a just, comprehensive, and final settlement to the Palestinian problem based on the two-state solution.
These two tracks were closely intertwined. Israel appears to have succeeded in derailing this momentum, as French President Emmanuel Macron recently announced the postponement of the UN-sponsored international conference that was meant to discuss the two-state solution following the beginning of the Israeli attacks on Iran.
The fifth and final reason, even while acknowledging that other reasons might exist, is Israel’s desire to demonstrate, not only to its allies but to all international and regional parties, that it is the “strongman” of the region and capable of playing the role of regional policeman.
This role was last played by the late Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, before the end of his rule in 1979. Israel’s ability to play it has been enhanced by the so-called Abraham Accords, brokered and encouraged by the US during President Donald Trump’s first term in office, which normalised relations and ended the state of war between Israel and four Arab countries.
If Israel succeeds in asserting this role through its current actions, it will strengthen its strategic position in the region and make it a gateway to the outside world. This could yield significant gains, whether in benefiting from advanced technology cooperation with countries in the East and the West, joint scientific research with major world powers, enhanced trade and investment relations with global and regional partners, or the further development of Israel’s military capabilities.
Perhaps the five reasons mentioned above can help to clarify the motives behind Israel’s rush to launch its military attacks on Iran. However, we will still need to monitor how events unfold and how the military confrontation between the two countries develops in order to understand the course of events, begin to contemplate possible scenarios for escalation or resolution, and anticipate consequences and outcomes.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 19 June, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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