Since beginning operations in Egypt in 2012, the EBRD has financed 206 projects worth more than 13.5 billion euros, with nearly two-thirds directed to the private sector. Investments span renewable energy, transport, financial services and infrastructure.

Growth trends
 

• EBRD regions, including the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Central Asia, and Emerging Europe, grew by 3.3 percent in H1 2025, up from 2.8 percent in 2024.
• The Southern and Eastern Mediterranean, including Egypt, led growth with 3.6 percent in H1 2025.
• Regional growth is forecast at 3.7 percent in 2025, before easing to 3.2 percent in 2026.
• Egypt’s real GDP growth is expected at 4.8 percent in 2025, rising to 5.3 percent in 2026, supported by easing inflation, stronger foreign exchange (FX) liquidity, private sector activity, infrastructure investment, and a rebound in tourism and exports.

Inflation and trade
 

• Inflation in EBRD regions ticked up in late 2024 on fiscal expansion and demand pressures.
• US tariffs on EBRD-region exports rose from 1.4 percent to 4 percent in early 2025.
• In Egypt, inflation dropped sharply from a 38 percent peak in mid-2023 to 12 percent by August 2025, thanks to improved food supply and a more stable currency.
• The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) has cut interest rates by 525 basis points since early 2025, with scope for further easing if disinflation holds.

Geopolitical and economic challenges
 

• Growth is under pressure from geopolitical tensions, fiscal constraints, and competition from China.
• Public debt and debt-service costs remain high in countries including Egypt, Jordan, and Ukraine.

Currency, reserves, and investment
 

• The Egyptian pound has stabilized since the March 2024 float, buoyed by FX inflows from remittances, tourism, and state asset sales.
• Foreign reserves have climbed to $40 billion; the current account deficit narrowed to 2.5 percent of GDP in FY2024/25.
• Egypt’s asset monetisation and privatisation programmes are drawing renewed foreign interest, particularly in energy, logistics and manufacturing.
• Reforms under the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Extended Fund Facility (EFF) are progressing, including fiscal consolidation, subsidy reform, and improvements in competition policy.

Risks and challenges
 

• Key risks include regional geopolitical instability, global commodity volatility, and slow structural reform.
• Egypt’s public debt remains high at 88 percent of GDP, but is expected to decline gradually with fiscal discipline and stronger nominal growth.

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