Segura-Ubiergo made the remarks during a seminar hosted by the Egyptian Center for Economic Studies (ECES) ahead of the IMF mission’s visit in October for talks on completing the fifth and sixth reviews of the country’s $8 billion loan programme.
He said inflation had eased from nearly 40 percent in 2023 to 12 percent today, while foreign reserves, tourism revenues, remittances, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows have strengthened the external position.
He praised fiscal discipline, stronger revenues, and reforms that cut customs clearance times from two weeks to one, with a plan to reduce that further to two days. Similar progress in tax and construction permits, he argued, could improve Egypt’s competitiveness rankings.
Segura also stressed the importance of expanding social protection programmes such as Takaful and Karama until jobs are created, emphasizing that the IMF “does not recommend raising prices but rather supports continued disinflation.”
In June, the IMF cut Egypt’s growth forecast for FY2025-26 to 4.1 percent, citing delays in structural reforms.
Privatization push
Segura underlined that Egypt’s privatization programme should not be measured only by fiscal revenues but by its ability to open space for the private sector under the State Ownership Policy launched in 2022.
“What matters most is not just the proceeds but allowing the private sector to take the lead,” he said, calling for faster progress on state-owned IPOs and highlighting sectors such as tourism and manufacturing as key growth drivers.
On the global outlook, he warned that uncertainty, trade tensions, and geopolitical risks complicate economic management worldwide. While easing inflation and calmer financial markets are positive, he said, limited fiscal space after the pandemic restricts governments’ ability to absorb new shocks.
“The key challenge now is to press ahead with reforms that boost productivity and create jobs,” he said.
Mixed signals in markets
Presenting ECES’s quarterly report, economist Omar El-Shenety of Zilla Capital highlighted sharp swings in global commodities: oil above $63 per barrel, gold at a record $3,845 an ounce, while iron prices fell on weaker Chinese demand.
He noted that interest rate cuts in the US, Canada and the UK boosted global equities, with Wall Street hitting record highs on AI-driven demand.
For Egypt, El-Shenety said that easing inflation and lower global borrowing costs have enabled the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) to implement gradual rate cuts.
Foreign reserves are close to $50 billion, backed by higher remittances, while the pound has strengthened to EGP 48 to the dollar. Still, he cautioned that a 4–5 percent gap between the official and parallel market rates requires close monitoring.
Reform priorities
Other speakers stressed the need to accelerate IPOs to re-energize the stock market.
Alaa El-Din Sabaa, Chairman of Basata Holding, stated that Egypt’s bourse requires new listings, particularly from state-owned firms such as Banque du Caire, to attract investors.
He noted daily turnover of about EGP 3.5 billion ($50–60 million) is far below Egypt’s economic weight, arguing the market has “a golden opportunity” if new major listings are introduced.
Former FRA Chairman Sherif Sami warned against reliance on gold funds, calling them “unproductive,” and urged innovative approaches to mobilizing remittances, citing models from India, Pakistan, and Morocco.
ECES Executive Director Abla Abdel-Latif, meanwhile, noted that progress remains fragile, citing the gap between official and parallel rates, as well as the exit of some companies despite improved macroeconomic indicators.
“Egypt needs genuine growth that reflects in jobs and living standards,” she said.
Egypt’s recent signs of economic recovery are being driven more by liquidity than by structural reforms, the head of El Adl Center for Public Policy Research cautioned.
While short-term indicators such as growth, inflation, and foreign reserves show improvement, the underlying drivers remain fragile, he said. The momentum is being supported largely by volatile capital inflows, remittances, and the temporary weakness of the US dollar, rather than by lasting gains in competitiveness or productivity.
He also cautioned that unless Egypt tackles core vulnerabilities, including debt sustainability, exchange-rate credibility, and the shift toward export-led growth, the recovery could lose steam once global liquidity conditions tighten.
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