The negative impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) are making themselves felt. Two weeks after its inauguration, Sudan issued a red flood alert citing rising water levels along the Nile’s two main tributaries of the Blue and White Nile.
Nader Noureddin, a professor of water resources at Cairo University, explained that the alert means that the water in the Nile Basin has risen to the level of 14.5 to 16.5 metres, which could cause a mild flood and one that can be absorbed by agricultural land without causing soil erosion.
However, another one-metre rise in the water level could cause a devastating flood.
“The situation is the result of a man-made error that can be solely ascribed to Ethiopian policies,” he told Al-Ahram Weekly, explaining that because the GERD reservoir is full and Addis Ababa needed to urgently release some 15 billion cubic metres (bcm) of water to release the pressure on it, this has caused the present floods in Sudan.
The situation could become more dangerous if Ethiopia continues to release large amounts of water, he said.
Ethiopia claimed on Monday that the GERD has helped to lessen the floods that have hit Sudan.
Ethiopian Water Minister Habtamu Itefa Geleta said that the flooding in Sudan could be from the White Nile. If the GERD had not been in place, he said, the damage could have been devastating.
“The GERD played a significant role in reducing the catastrophic effects of the flooding,” Geleta said.
However, Noureddin said that this week’s floods have proved that these claims are not true. Ethiopia insisted on fully filling the dam during the rainy season between July and mid-September, and this had caused pressure on the dam, he said.
This was a mistake because water was supposed to be gradually released through 13 turbines that were originally planned to be installed. But in reality there are only eight turbines, of which only five are partially operating, meaning that not enough water can be released.
Addis Ababa resorted to opening the flood gates of the dam without sharing the information with Sudan as a result, even though both countries revealed a few months ago that they had signed an agreement to share information on the dam, Noureddin said.
The sudden release of water had led to excessive water flow into Sudan this week, he explained.
The Sudanese Irrigation Ministry warned early this week that the water level has been high for four consecutive days as dams in the area have discharged excess water. It urged residents in various provinces to remain vigilant as flooding may affect their houses and agricultural land.
Egypt has reiterated its firm stand that it will not accept Ethiopia’s unilateral measures on the GERD.
In his address to the high-level debate at the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York this week, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty accused Ethiopia of endangering the lives of millions of people in Egypt and Sudan through its unilateral actions on the GERD.
He denounced Ethiopia’s “destabilising unilateral policies” in the Horn of Africa and the Eastern Nile Basin regions.
He highlighted that Egypt remains open to judicial and arbitration mechanisms under international law. “We are fully prepared to address the matter before judicial and arbitration mechanisms, should there be a sincere intention to submit the matter to these frameworks, which, in reality, has never existed” on the part of Ethiopia, he said.
One of the options available is for Egypt to resort to international arbitration by submitting a complaint to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) or the International Water Tribunal on the grounds that the GERD violates the UN Watercourses Convention of 1997 on the equitable use of rivers and the avoidance of significant harm.
The UN Watercourses Convention calls for the equitable use of water in international watercourses but links this to various factors including the social and economic needs of the watercourse states concerned, the population dependent on the watercourse in each state, and the availability of alternatives, of comparable value, to a particular planned or existing use.
All these factors can work in Egypt’s interest.
Rakha Hassan, a former assistant to Egypt’s foreign minister, noted that international arbitration requires the consent of all the involved parties. He said that they must all agree on arbitration in principle and on the condition and steps to be taken during the process.
“That can take a lot of time and effort,” he said.
According to Addis Ababa, it will never accede to international arbitration. Hassan said that in the Declaration of Principles signed in Khartoum in 2015 between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan Article 10 stipulates that if the three countries are unable to resolve a dispute on the GERD through consultation or negotiation, they may jointly refer the matter for mediation or the consideration of their heads of state or government.
Diplomacy is still the first option before Egypt as “the art of the possible,” Hassan said.
Egypt has raised the GERD issue in various international venues. It has always adopted the firm stand that it will not accept Ethiopian unilateral measures regarding the GERD. It also points to the fact that the Nile is an international river that should be governed according to international law, he said.
A diplomat who preferred to speak anonymously believes that diplomacy and negotiations are still a reliable option for Egypt on the GERD. He pinned hopes on a more supportive role from Sudan, “given that it saw the negative impact of the dam on the ground this week.”
Egypt may also try to rally support from the African Union (AU) and the UN to establish a binding agreement on the operation of the GERD and one that commits Ethiopia to releasing enough water during drought periods.
While Egypt has not been affected by the latest release of water from the GERD reservoir, the real challenge, said Noureddin, will be in times of drought and in Ethiopia’s insistence on unilaterally managing the dam.
It has insisted on filling the Dam to its full capacity of 74 bcm rather than sufficing at 50 to 55 bcm, which is enough to generate electricity until the next flood season, Noureddin said, adding that the electricity grids that are supposed to transfer electricity generated by the dam either domestically or to other neighbouring countries like Sudan and South Sudan have not been built.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 2 October, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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