The two countries may have different long-term objectives for Sudan, but sources agree they are both determined to achieve the same short-term goal: a humanitarian truce at the very least.
“The problem in Sudan is deeply layered and cannot be understood solely in the context of the current fight between the Sudanese Armed Forces [SAF] and the RSF,” said Mohamed Morsi, former head of the Sudan and East Africa desks at the Egyptian foreign service.
But the pursuit of a ceasefire, or even a humanitarian truce, still requires an end to that conflict, which started two years ago, Morsi added, as well as some bridging of the gap between the positions of the leaders of both the SAF and the RSF, respectively: Abdel-Fattah Al-Burhan, and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti).
“This is for now, but in the long-term matters have to be addressed in a deep way, which means that state institutions, including the army, cannot be put on a par with the RSF, which is basically a militia with no real substance except greed for money and power,” Morsi said.
Informed government sources said Egypt and the US are struggling to achieve a ceasefire, with the cessation of hostilities enabling the opening of humanitarian corridors to allow the people of Al-Fasher — victims of an 18-month RSF siege as well as the atrocities of the last two weeks — a safe exit and sufficient aid. Cairo has been receiving representatives of the SAF, RSF, and other involved parties.
On Monday Amani Al-Tawil, the top expert on Sudan at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, posted on Facebook that Egypt might be hosting a direct meeting between Al-Burhan and Hemedti. According to multiple government sources, the meeting could take place in the presence of Massad Boulos, the US president’s senior adviser for African, Arab, and Middle Eastern affairs, who is currently in Cairo. Boulos was already in town heading a US delegation in dialogue with Egyptian officials when Al-Fasher fell to the RSF, bringing the military escalation and humanitarian crisis in Sudan to the top of the agenda. Both sides of the dialogue stressed the urgent need for an immediate and lasting ceasefire.
Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, who headed the Egyptian side, reiterated Egypt’s firm stand on preserving Sudan’s unity, stability, and national institutions. He highlighted the efforts Cairo has exerted in the framework of the Quad (the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt) to reach a humanitarian ceasefire, to be followed by a permanent ceasefire in every part of the country, to pave the way for a comprehensive political process.
Only two days before the events in Al-Fasher, the Quad had held a meeting in Washington in which representatives of the SAF and the RSF participated. Informed sources say the meeting in the US capital was highly inconclusive despite the US pressure, however. But the same sources insist that both the US and Egypt are committed to continue working on a humanitarian ceasefire that could open the door to the end of a war that had left millions dead, displaced, or brutalised.
The UN has warned that the humanitarian situation in Al-Fasher is catastrophic, with thousands displaced and aid deliveries blocked. The International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor’s office voiced “profound alarm and deepest concern” over reports of mass killings, rapes and other suspected war crimes. “These atrocities are part of a broader pattern of violence that has afflicted the entire Darfur region since April 2023,” said the office of the ICC prosecutor in a statement. “Such acts, if substantiated, may constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity under the Rome Statute,” the founding text of the ICC.
According an Egyptian government source, “We need to act fast. There is no telling what the volume of the humanitarian disaster in Al-Fasher is, and the sooner we have this humanitarian truce the better.” But this requires having the regional players who support both the SAF and the RSF on board, the source added. “We might draft a deal, and persuade the representatives of Al-Burhan and Hemedti to agree to it, but the whole effort could collapse if the regional players, both in Africa and the Arab world, didn’t agree to it.”
The conflict of the regional parties, he explained, is not so different from that of Al-Burhan and Hemedti: it is about power on the one hand, and wealth on the other. Those who support the RSF are keen to control the gold mines and other valuable minerals, while those who support the SAF are convinced a country with so many ethnic components and tribal conflicts can only be stable if it is run by a strong central regime with a monopoly on the use of arms. “The fact that the balance of power of these regional forces does not tip in favour of one side or the other has contributed to the perpetuation of the war,” the source went on. “Without a compromise it is hard to see how the conflict can be resolved.”
According to both a Cairo-based Sudanese source close to SAF quarters and an informed Egyptian source, the increase in supplies of arms to the RSF during the last few weeks enabled the militia to take control of Al-Fasher on 26 October. With such supplies available to the RSF, the powers supporting the SAF are in a situation where they need to act fast.
This week, international organisations issued reports highlighting the worsening famine in Al-Fasher and the town of Kadugli, in the southern part of South Kordofan province, which has also been besieged by the RSF for the last two months. Kordofan is a strategic hinge between Sudan’s Darfur provinces and the Khartoum-Riverine heartland to the east. Since the RSF took control of Al-Fasher, over 36,000 civilians have fled Kordofan. Both the SAF and the RSF are vying for Al-Obeid, a strategic spot in the north of Kordofan.
In March, the UN described the situation in Sudan as “the world’s worst humanitarian crisis”. According to UN figures, more than 40,000 people have been killed since the outbreak of war. However, aid groups say the true death toll could be many times higher. The fighting has driven more than 14 million people from their homes and fuelled disease outbreaks.
“It is a top priority for Egypt to act to reach a humanitarian truce today before the war takes an even more devastating toll on the lives of Sudanese people,” Morsi said. “For Egypt, Sudan is an issue of national security — actually a top national security issue; Egypt cannot allow Sudan to remain in havoc, and this is why it is very involved in the settlement negotiations.”
* A version of this article appears in print in the 6 November, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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