Egypt central bank raises 2026 external debt service forecast by $1.3 bln

Doaa A.Moneim , Monday 10 Nov 2025

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) has increased its estimate for Egypt’s external debt service in 2026 by $1.3 billion, bringing the total to $29.18 billion, up from $27.87 billion previously, according to the CBE’s latest External Position of the Egyptian Economy report released on Sunday.

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The report noted that principal repayments are expected to reach $23.79 billion, an increase of $1.1 billion, while interest payments are projected to rise by $250 million to $5.4 billion.
 
It indicated that Egypt repaid around $30.1 billion in the first nine months of FY2024/2025, including $24.3 billion in principal and $5.8 billion in interest.
 
The CBE attributed the overall increase mainly to a $6.8 billion rise in principal repayments, while interest payments fell by about $500 million during the same period.
 
Egypt’s external debt-to-GDP ratio climbed to 44.5 percent by the end of March 2025, compared to 38.8 percent at the end of June 2024.
 
Total external debt rose to $156.7 billion by March 2025, up $3.8 billion from June, driven by a $3.3 billion increase in external borrowing.
 
By the end of September 2025, total external debt increased further to $161.2 billion, with short-term debt representing 19.2 percent of the total, up from 17 percent three months earlier.
 
Egypt’s external financing requirements are expected to rise over the next two fiscal years before easing, reflecting the economic impact of regional instability, according to the latest data published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Egypt.
 
Egypt’s external financing needs are projected to increase from an estimated $25.9 billion in both FY2025/2026 and FY2026/2027 to $30.4 billion, before declining to $27.5 billion as pressures subside.
 
The fund also revised upward its estimate of Egypt’s financing gap for FY2025/2026 from $5.2 billion to $8.2 billion, citing increased external obligations and tighter global liquidity.
 
For FY2026/27, the gap is projected to nearly double to $6.1 billion, compared with an earlier estimate of $3.2 billion.
 
An IMF mission is expected to arrive in Cairo during November for discussions related to the completion of the fifth and sixth reviews of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) loan programme.  
 
Global credit rating agency S&P Global Ratings upgraded Egypt’s long-term sovereign credit rating to B from B- in October for the first time in seven years, citing ongoing economic reforms, improving growth prospects, and stronger external accounts.
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