File Photo: A view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) ahead of its official inauguration ceremony in Guba. AFP
The Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation said Ethiopia has continued releasing large, uncoordinated volumes of water from the GERD, causing unprecedented volatility in downstream flows.
The ministry cited significant and sudden increases in discharge during September, including 485 million m³ on 10 September 2025 followed by spikes reaching 780 million m³ on 27 September.
Remote-sensing assessments also showed the reservoir level dropping by around one metre — equivalent to roughly 2 billion m³ of water released in addition to natural flood flows — before discharge levels fell back to about 380 million m³ on 30 September.
In the interest of transparency and ongoing monitoring of the Blue Nile, the ministry stressed that Egypt has repeatedly warned of the risks posed by Ethiopia’s “illegal, unilateral, and unregulated” management of the dam.
According to standard dam-operation practices, the reservoir level should have been gradually lowered from 640 metres to around 625 metres by the end of the hydrological year to maintain a safe buffer for hydrological variations.
However, the ministry said this did not occur. Instead, Ethiopia abruptly closed the emergency spillway on 8 October, causing daily discharge to plummet to around 139 million m³, then stabilise at an average of 160 million m³ until 20 October — equivalent to operating only half of the available turbines.
The ministry described this pattern as “hydrologically unsound,” noting that Ethiopia reduces outflows to maximise storage and raise water levels, then abruptly releases large volumes far exceeding operational needs, rather than discharging gradually as international best practice requires.
This, it said, reflects the absence of a stable, scientific operating plan for the facility.
Water levels in the reservoir subsequently re-approached 640 metres, and on 21 October Ethiopia again sharply increased discharge to around 300 million m³ per day by opening the emergency spillway — a measure designed only for exceptional circumstances. Average outflows remained around 320 million m³ per day for ten consecutive days.
Ethiopia closed the emergency spillway again on 31 October. Between 1 and 20 November, average discharge stood at roughly 180 million m³ per day — about 80% higher than the historical average of 100 million m³ for the same period — confirming the persistence of severe fluctuations in Blue Nile flows.
“These repeated actions reflect the absence of technical and scientific controls in the operation of the Ethiopian dam,” the ministry said, warning that such erratic management of a major structure on an international river poses risks to downstream countries and disrupts the safe operation of dams located immediately below GERD, which must take precautionary measures to absorb sudden variations.
Given the continuous 24-hour monitoring conducted by the Nile Revenue Committee — comprising experts in hydrology, dam operations, mathematical modelling, and remote sensing — Egypt has decided to open the Toshka spillway to release excess water and stabilise the hydraulic balance within its water system.
The ministry said the decision demonstrates Egypt’s advanced early-response capabilities based on real-time data and satellite imagery.
These developments have also delayed scheduled work to upgrade Toshka’s discharge capacity, as efforts had to be redirected to manage Ethiopia’s sudden and unregulated water releases.
The ministry reassured the public that Egypt’s water system remains fully secure and efficiently managed, with the High Aswan Dam continuing to serve as the country’s primary safeguard against hydrological shocks.
It affirmed the state’s commitment to professional management of the water sector to meet all national water needs and protect Egypt’s interests.
In early October, Egypt accused Ethiopia of endangering millions of lives downstream by recklessly managing its giant Nile dam, after sudden water releases triggered floods that submerged villages in Sudan, adding that Ethiopia’s dam management “lacks the most basic principles of responsibility and transparency” and was carried out in violation of international law.
In previous statements, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty stated that the lack of coordination on GERD operations was a contributing factor to the severe flooding in Sudan, while negotiations over the dam’s management remain at a standstill.
Egypt sent a letter to the UN Security Council on 9 September denouncing Ethiopia’s inauguration of the GERD as a unilateral step that “violates international law” and undermines regional security.
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