Winter cold might converge with summer heat, not because of climate change but because of rising temperatures in international relations. Literature and the arts have grasped this easily. So has philosophy, which has long engaged with contradiction, whether as a matter of logic or, as Marx argued, a driving force of human development.
In the arts, the idea is captured in George R R Martin’s A Song of Ice and Fire, which was adapted into the famous television series Game of Thrones. It is set in fantasy world not too different from Middle-earth in the equally renowned The Lord of the Rings series, based on J R R Tolkien’s trilogy. Both fictional planets mirror ours, with its myriads of contradictions and paradoxes shaped by primordial and modern challenges.
International relations scholars and intelligence experts must grapple with contradictions in realist policy – or Realpolitik – rooted in Thomas Hobbes’ vision of a natural state of perpetual “war of all against all”, and in Machiavelli’s advice to princes on how to navigate such a condition. This brings us to another “hot winter” in the Middle East, brimming with immense challenges for all – the first posed by nature itself. Winter has struck, inflicting the cruelty of the elements on the people of Gaza, while the Trump plan has yet to move beyond the first step of achieving a ceasefire.
This is because Hamas is unwilling to surrender its weapons in preparation for moving onto the next phase. It is also because Israel cannot bring itself to reduce the rates of killing and destruction in Gaza even as it opens new fronts of violence in Syria and Lebanon. These two countries were supposed to be candidates for peace with Israel. Yet, the former is now totally defenceless and wide open to attack, increasingly vulnerable to fragmentation in the north, south, and centre amid Israeli bombardment mixed with regional and sectarian conflicts. Meanwhile, Lebanon has the Hizbullah thorn in its side, refusing to hand over its arms to the state, which cannot be a proper state until it holds a monopoly on arms. Israel, of course, is seizing the opportunity to subject Lebanon to endless attacks, which Netanyahu sees as his path to reshaping the Middle East.
Another source of heat is Iran’s support for Hizbullah and Hamas, helping them maintain their arsenals and sustain the “resistance.” Most likely, Tehran is preparing for the day, which it hopes will not be far off, to exact revenge against the Jewish state. So it hints that its nuclear capabilities remain intact under the cover of its status within the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as defined by the Iranian parliament, not by the treaty’s articles pertaining to the inspection of NPT signatories’ facilities. Of course, Israel’s actual possession of nuclear weapons is an open secret. Nor has it signed the NPT, and it refuses to do so, believing this gives it the right to attack Iran when the moment comes. This will not occur unless the US is ready to join Israel. For the moment, that appears unlikely given the tensions between Israel and Washington. Moreover, Trump is still intent on pushing a ceasefire on the Gaza front, even as he escalates attacks on the Venezuelan coast, suggesting these military operations may expand inland. As all this unfolds, negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are putting peace in Europe at risk. Putin seeks the full submission of Ukraine while Europe trembles before the Russian bear.
The cries of “Winter is coming!” rang through the air in Game of Thrones, as the din of battle and bloodshed raged below. In our world, despite some ceasefire agreements and negotiating sessions, waves of heat creep across multiple arenas. The US, as busy as ever, has entered the Sudanese crisis, inserting a negotiating team much like other US teams and with similar formulas: a call for a ceasefire or at least a humanitarian pause to enable the delivery of food and medicine.
Yet, the heat also rises wherever peace proves elusive. Given the ongoing murder and destruction in Gaza, Palestinian opinion polls reflect a deep thirst for revenge on Israel, which under Netanyahu believes its time has come to subdue the entire Middle East one way or another. All he needs is to put an end to his corruption trial and the envoys will kneel humbly at his knees.
The Saudi crown prince’s recent visit to Washington was decisive and disappointing for Israel, given his firm insistence that normalisation will not occur without a clear pathway to establishing a Palestinian state. Israel makes no secret of wanting to have the Palestinian cake and eat it too. Winter is coming, bringing a scorching heat.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 11 December, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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