The fate of the ceasefire in Gaza remains uncertain as efforts continue to locate the body of the last Israeli captive in the Gaza Strip, a condition Israel has set before moving to the second phase of the agreement that would require Hamas to hand over its weapons and allow an international force to deploy in the territory.
But according to Arab and Israeli political and media sources, progress on this phase remains elusive, not only because of the missing body, but also due to deep disagreements over the details of the next stage.
A central obstacle is the question of Hamas’ weapons. While the latter publicly states it is willing to relinquish its arms, it continues to manoeuvre around the issue.
Israel is also accused of manoeuvring both regarding weapons and the international force that is supposed to police Gaza, and it continues to oppose the deployment of troops from certain countries, including Turkey and Qatar.
Israel insists that the most critical element in the second phase of US President Donald Trump’s ceasefire plan is the disarmament of Hamas within a short, defined period, threatening to resume the war if this does not occur.
Despite the differing positions held by Israel and Hamas, and the lack of significant progress by the mediators, the issues of disarmament and the deployment of the International Stabilisation Force remain among the most urgent components of the plan.
According to US sources, several countries, including Indonesia, have expressed their willingness to contribute troops to the force, though its structure, command, and mandate remain unresolved. American officials expect “boots on the ground” at the beginning of next year.
Palestinian commentator Saniyeh Al-Husseini told Al-Ahram Weekly that prospects for moving into the second phase of the US plan remain “weak” due to the overall ambiguity surrounding Washington’s proposal, especially the security components, which she described as the most critical.
Al-Husseini said that handing over Hamas’ weapons is highly complex and closely tied to the challenges involved in implementing phase two of the plan. She added that Israel’s uncompromising approach and insistence on maintaining control, which she said is currently preventing meaningful progress, increases political fragmentation in Gaza and complicates negotiations with Hamas.
Gaza-based political analyst Mohamed Diab told the Weekly that the United States is seeking to address the weapons issue through intermediary proposals, using Qatar and Turkey to exert pressure on Hamas.
He said Washington’s aim is to resolve the matter without relying on an international force or giving Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu an excuse to resume the war under the pretext of disarmament. Diab pointed to a Qatari-Turkish plan proposing the temporary storage of Hamas’ weapons.
Meanwhile, Israel’s Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper has reported that Tel Aviv rejected a Qatari-Turkish proposal granting Hamas two years to hand over its weapons, insisting instead on a timeline of only a few months.
The proposal, discussed during regional efforts to stabilise the ceasefire, would see Hamas surrender heavy weapons under international supervision. Israeli officials argue that a longer timeframe is unacceptable and insist on strict, rapid monitoring to ensure the security of Israeli communities near Gaza.
The newspaper said Israel is also examining a plan to begin reconstructing a “civilian, Hamas-free model” in Rafah. Israeli security officials claim that 75 per cent of Gazans no longer support Hamas, although the movement is reportedly reorganising and consolidating power amid the security vacuum created by the fragile ceasefire.
Officials warned that Israel must maintain an independent operational plan for disarmament, rather than relying on what they describe as a “soft” American or international approach.
HAMAS READINESS: The Israeli report came after senior Hamas leaders in Gaza Khalil Al-Hayya and Bassem Naim said on Saturday that Hamas is ready to hand over its weapons to a future independent Palestinian state “after the end of Israeli occupation.”
According to comments reported by the Associated Press, Naim said the movement is open to discussions on “freezing or storing” its weapons as part of a ceasefire framework.
He stressed that while Hamas retains the right to resist, it is willing to negotiate a weapons arrangement within a political process leading to statehood. He suggested a long-term truce lasting five to ten years during which such negotiations could take place.
“We are very open to what can be done with the weapons,” Naim said. “We can talk about freezing, storing, or depositing them, with Palestinian guarantees, during a ceasefire.”
When asked whether an international force would disarm Hamas, Naim said such a mandate would be unacceptable. He said Hamas would allow the force to monitor the ceasefire, report violations, and prevent escalation, but not to carry out tasks inside Palestinian territory.
Naim also revealed progress in talks between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority (PA) on forming a technocratic committee to administer Gaza’s daily affairs. He said both sides agreed to appoint a Palestinian minister originally from Gaza but currently serving in the West Bank to lead the body.
Hamas officials told AP that the minister is likely to be Health Minister Majed Abu Ramadan.
Diab said Hamas’ recent statements signal a shift in tone, particularly its use of new terminology such as “freezing” or “storing” weapons, likely reflecting pressure from mediators seeking a formula acceptable to all sides.
According to Israeli media, the second phase of Trump’s plan will dominate the agenda during Netanyahu’s visit to Washington at the end of the month, where he is expected to meet Trump, Vice President J D Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth.
Netanyahu said earlier this week that the international force planned for Gaza “will not be able to carry out the essential task” of disarming Hamas. He said Israel expects to enter phase two after retrieving the last Israeli captive’s body.
“We have completed the first phase in Gaza and are approaching its end,” Netanyahu said. “One hostage, Ran Joeli, remains. After he returns, we expect to move into the second phase, which will be as difficult as the first, if not more.”
He said the next phase involves “disarming Hamas and disarming Gaza,” while the so-called third phase will focus on “deradicalisation.”
Netanyahu also said he would discuss “ending Hamas rule in Gaza” with international leaders, calling it essential for the future of both Israelis and Palestinians.
On the West Bank, he said the current situation will remain unchanged for the foreseeable future, adding that political annexation remains under discussion and may be decided during his meeting with Trump.
According to Yedioth Ahronoth, US officials favour “decommissioning” Hamas’ arsenal by placing weapons out of service and in storage, while Israel demands complete disarmament. Israel fears stored weapons could be reclaimed.
Washington is also considering a Turkish role in Gaza, supported by senior US envoys such as Tom Barrack, despite strong Israeli opposition.
Al-Husseini told the Weekly that the differences between Washington and Tel Aviv are temporary and rooted in diverging goals not in the underlying strategic alliance. She said the US seeks stability in Gaza to advance reconstruction and economic projects, while Israel is prioritising the elimination of Hamas and wants to take its time.
“The dispute is not over control itself,” she said, “but over how long it will take to achieve it.”
Diab concluded that the US holds significant leverage over Netanyahu and that Trump is personally invested in advancing to the second phase of the ceasefire before the year’s end.
He said Netanyahu’s planned visit to the White House on 29 December reflects efforts by the US administration to convince him to move forward or at least to delay demands for immediate disarmament.
He added that while a full return to war is unlikely, Netanyahu may adopt a “Lebanese model” in Gaza by exerting continuous pressure to restrict Hamas’ operational capacity.
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