Strategic Balance was issued not as a ceremonial institutional publication, but as an attempt to explain the logic that has guided Egypt’s external policies over the past decade, and to clarify how Cairo has navigated a world increasingly defined by conflict, polarization, and the weakening of international rules.
The decision to publish such a work reflects an awareness that foreign policy today is shaped not only through closed-door diplomacy, but also through the ideas that frame how states explain themselves to partners, critics, and their own public.
This choice is significant.
States rarely pause to systematize their foreign policy reasoning while crises are still unfolding. More often, they allow actions and positions to accumulate without offering a unifying explanation. The release of Strategic Balance suggests that Egypt recognizes a persistent gap between how its foreign policy is practiced and how it is interpreted abroad. Individual decisions—whether on Gaza, Libya, Sudan, or relations with major powers—are frequently read in isolation, detached from the broader strategic context in which they are made.
The book seeks to address that gap by offering a coherent narrative that links Egypt’s positions across regions and crises, and explains why Cairo has consistently resisted sharp alignments, sudden reversals, or ideologically driven foreign policy choices, even under considerable pressure.
Explaining Policy in an Age of Global Disorder
It has become increasingly misleading to assess foreign policy without reference to the global environment in which it operates. The post–Cold War order, for all its flaws, rested on assumptions of relative predictability. Rules were imperfect but recognizable, institutions retained influence, and escalation carried tangible costs.
Much of that framework has eroded.
Conventional war has returned to Europe, great powers increasingly bypass multilateral institutions, and conflicts in the Middle East remain unresolved for decades. International law is invoked selectively, often subordinated to political convenience.
Strategic Balance does not attempt to defend this order. Instead, it acknowledges its decline and explains how Egypt has adapted to a system it no longer considers stable or equitable.
File Photo: Egyptian President El-Sisi's Speech at the “Egyptian Family Iftar” during which he laid the foundations for strategic balance.. Photo courtesy of the Egyptian Presidential website.
At the core of the book is the concept of “strategic balance,” repeatedly emphasized by President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi as the foundation of Egypt’s foreign policy.
The term is carefully framed. It does not imply neutrality, passivity, or indecision. Rather, it reflects what El-Sisi has described as policies governed by “clear national determinants, foremost among them safeguarding Egypt’s national security and pursuing comprehensive peace based on justice.” In practical terms, strategic balance is about preserving room for maneuver in an international environment where rigid alignment can quickly turn into strategic vulnerability.
The book makes clear that this approach did not emerge from abstract theorizing. It was shaped by experience.
The upheavals that followed 2011 exposed the consequences of state collapse across the Arab world. Where institutions weakened or disintegrated, armed groups filled the vacuum. Foreign intervention multiplied. Borders lost meaning. For Egypt, these developments were not distant events, but direct security challenges. The rise of militias, extremist organizations, and transnational threats forced Cairo to reassess long-held assumptions about regional order. Later global crises reinforced this reassessment.
As El-Sisi observed in an international forum, recent conflicts revealed “the inability of the international system to deal fairly with crises, and its increasing reliance on selectivity and double standards.”
Strategic Balance as Statecraft, Not Neutrality
File Photo: Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty delivers his country’s address at the UN General Assembly meetings in New York. Photo courtesy of Egyptian Foreign Ministry.
This diagnosis shapes the book’s reading of Egypt’s Arab environment.
Strategic balance is presented as a practical response to instability rather than an abstract doctrine. The text repeatedly emphasizes the centrality of the national state as the basic unit of stability. Where the state collapses, the book argues, chaos becomes self-perpetuating. Egypt’s foreign policy has therefore prioritized preserving state institutions, even while acknowledging the need for reform and political inclusion. The alternative—state dismantlement under the banner of change—has repeatedly produced prolonged conflict rather than stability.
The Palestinian cause occupies a central place in this framework. The book treats it as a defining issue for regional order, not a tactical file shaped by circumstance. Egypt’s position rejects attempts to reduce Palestine to a humanitarian emergency detached from its political roots. Following the outbreak of the Gaza war in October 2023, Cairo opposed approaches that confined diplomacy to temporary ceasefires or aid arrangements.
El-Sisi was explicit: “There can be no real stability in the Middle East without a just and comprehensive solution to the Palestinian issue.”
An Egyptian Red Crescent (ERC) truck carrying supplies and aid to Gaza via the Rafah border crossing. Photo courtesy of ERC.
At the same time, the book stresses that political clarity did not come at the expense of humanitarian responsibility. Egypt coordinated the largest share of aid deliveries into Gaza, facilitating the entry of more than 70 percent of the humanitarian assistance that reached the Strip. This dual track—political firmness alongside sustained humanitarian engagement—was deliberate. Egyptian officials repeatedly warned against allowing humanitarian relief to substitute for political action. As the book notes, Cairo sought to prevent “a political cause from being reduced to a permanent humanitarian crisis.”
The international dimension of Egypt’s approach is also central to the analysis. The book details Cairo’s engagement with the United Nations (UN) and before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) as part of a broader effort to reassert the relevance of international law. These moves were not symbolic. They were intended to challenge the erosion of legal norms and reinforce the principle that occupation, collective punishment, and forced displacement cannot be normalized.
The text links this effort to renewed international momentum on Palestinian statehood, reflected in recognition decisions by several European states.
Managing Regional Crises Through Deterrence and Diplomacy
Egypt’s handling of its immediate neighborhood follows the same strategic logic. The book highlights an unusual convergence of crises along all of Egypt’s strategic frontiers—Libya to the west, Sudan to the south, and Gaza to the east.
In such circumstances, foreign policy becomes inseparable from national security. Decisions taken beyond Egypt’s borders have immediate consequences at home, whether through migration flows, security spillover, or economic disruption.
The head of the Egyptian GIS, Hassan Rashad pose for an image with Commander-in-Chief of the Libyan Armed Forces Field Marshal Khalifa Abu Al-Qasim Haftar ahead of their meeting.
In Libya, Egypt’s approach is presented as restrained but firm.
Cairo rejected both military adventurism and political disengagement. Its objectives remained consistent: preserving Libya’s territorial unity, preventing foreign domination, and supporting a Libyan-led political process. The declaration of the Sirte–Jufra line as a red line in 2020 is explained as a deterrent aimed at halting escalation rather than provoking conflict. At the time, El-Sisi stated that Egypt would not allow “chaos or terrorism to threaten Libyan unity or Egyptian security.”
The book also underscores Egypt’s role as a platform for dialogue.
Cairo hosted political, constitutional, and military talks while insisting on Libyan ownership of the process. This reflected a broader belief that externally imposed solutions rarely endure, and that foreign intervention often prolongs conflict rather than resolves it. Libya, in the book’s telling, became a test case for how strategic balance can combine deterrence with diplomacy.
Sudan presented a different challenge but elicited a similarly calibrated response.
Egypt supported political dialogue and ceasefire initiatives while absorbing the humanitarian consequences of the conflict. Hosting large numbers of displaced Sudanese and providing access to essential services was treated not merely as an emergency response, but as part of a broader stability calculation. The book emphasizes that humanitarian engagement and security considerations are not separate agendas, but deeply interconnected.
Relations with the Gulf are presented as another pillar of strategic balance.
The book stresses that Gulf security is inseparable from Egypt’s own security calculations. This explains Cairo’s involvement in securing maritime routes in the Red Sea and Bab Al-Mandab, as well as its close coordination with Gulf partners during periods of regional tension. Economic cooperation receives equal attention. Major investment projects and institutional coordination mechanisms are described as long-term stabilizing tools rather than short-term gains.
As El-Sisi has repeatedly stated, “Sustainable development is the strongest safeguard against instability.”
Beyond the Arab region, the book frames Egypt’s relations with Africa, Europe, Asia, and the United States as an exercise in diversification rather than realignment.
Cairo has sought to expand its partnerships without abandoning existing ones. In Africa, this has taken the form of development cooperation, infrastructure projects, and institutional engagement, particularly through regional organizations.
In Europe, cooperation has centered on energy security, migration management, and regional stability. In Asia, Egypt has engaged emerging powers pragmatically, without expectations of rapid shifts in global leadership.
Relations with the United States are described as a strategic partnership managed through dialogue rather than dependency or confrontation. The book avoids idealizing the relationship, acknowledging differences while emphasizing continuity and mutual interests. This reflects the broader philosophy of strategic balance: managing disagreement without turning it into rupture, and cooperation without surrendering autonomy.
A distinctive contribution of Strategic Balance lies in how it implicitly situates Egypt among a broader category of “middle powers.”
While the book does not use the term explicitly, its logic mirrors the strategies adopted by states that lack the capacity to dominate the international system but refuse to be marginalized by it. Like other middle powers, Egypt seeks to influence outcomes through diplomacy, coalition-building, and agenda-setting rather than coercion.
Strategic balance, in this sense, becomes a method for maximizing influence without overstretch.
The book also acknowledges the risks inherent in this approach. Strategic balance requires constant calibration. It demands institutional coherence, disciplined messaging, and the ability to absorb pressure without overreacting.
In a polarized world, resisting alignment can itself attract criticism from competing camps. The book does not deny these risks, but treats them as preferable to the long-term costs of dependency or entanglement.
The concluding sections broaden the discussion to multilateralism, counterterrorism, and the evolution of Egypt’s diplomatic tools. Commitment to multilateral institutions is presented as a matter of realism rather than idealism.
For states that do not command overwhelming power, international frameworks remain essential safeguards against unilateralism. On terrorism, the book advances a comprehensive approach linking security measures to ideological confrontation and development policy.
As El-Sisi has argued, “Terrorism is not only the act of those who carry weapons, but also of those who fund, arm, and provide political or ideological cover.”
Ultimately, Strategic Balance does not claim to offer a definitive roadmap for an unsettled world. Its value lies in explaining how Egypt has sought to preserve rational decision-making amid uncertainty.
It presents restraint as strategy rather than weakness, and engagement as necessity rather than choice.
In doing so, the book offers insight into how a major regional state is adapting to an international system where stability can no longer be assumed, and must instead be continuously managed.
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