On 4 January, the Israeli cabinet held a meeting to discuss its military plans for Lebanon and Gaza, and possibly also Iran and Yemen, according to leaks in the Israeli press. A follow-up meeting is expected on 8 January.
The meetings come against the backdrop of escalating violations of the ceasefire deals that Israel reached in Lebanon in the autumn of 2024 and in Gaza in the autumn of 2025.
On Monday, the Israeli occupation army launched strikes on southern and eastern Lebanon, alleging it was attacking Hizbullah and Hamas targets. Meanwhile, Israel has been escalating its attacks on Gaza, including on medical facilities.
International diplomatic sources working both in Lebanon and Gaza say that there has been a qualitative change in the nature of the targets that Israel has been attacking in Gaza and Lebanon, and particularly in the latter.
They attribute this change to what they suspect to be a nod of approval, if not a complete greenlight, that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was given by US President Donald Trump during a late December meeting in Trump’s residence in Florida.
“The statements that Trump made following the meeting are simply catastrophic,” said one of three international diplomatic sources who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly following the meeting that convened on 28 December.
In statements made after the meeting, Trump said that it would be “horrible” if Hamas fails to disarm, giving it eight weeks to do so.
“This threat came at a time when we were trying to move to the second phase of the ceasefire agreement to allow the International Stabilisation Force [ISF] to start moving into Gaza and to move on with bringing in a new Palestinian administration of apolitical technocrats,” said an Egyptian official who requested anonymity.
According to the ceasefire agreement on the two-year Israeli genocidal war on Gaza, which was announced in Sharm El-Sheikh in October amid a high-profile international presence, the first phase of the ceasefire was supposed to see the end of the fighting, the exchange of prisoners and hostages, and the smooth entry of humanitarian aid to Gaza. This became especially crucial with the advent of severe winter weather and the continued high levels of hunger and malnutrition.
“Honestly, we don’t think that Israel has honoured its part of the deal, and we have been pushing for better Israeli commitment on that front. But we are still working to move on with the second phase because we suspect that if we don’t, the ceasefire may collapse due to the continued Israeli violations,” the same Egyptian official said.
He added that the three mediators of the ceasefire, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey, are still trying “to save the ceasefire and to spare Gaza from another round of havoc that would come if Israel was to renew its war.”
However, according to the international diplomats who spoke to the Weekly, it is more likely that the focus of Netanyahu’s next military plan is Lebanon.
“I am not saying that he is not planning to attack Gaza again under the pretext that Hamas is not disarming or whatever, but for Netanyahu it is Lebanon first and Gaza second,” said a second source among the three international diplomats.
He added that Israel’s military escalation against Lebanon “is unlikely to include a massive ground operation. However, it could well go beyond the south of Lebanon, on the ongoing pretext that the Lebanese government has failed to fully disarm Hizbulah and that Hizbullah has been re-arming with the help of Iran.”
“If Israel starts another war, there are no guarantees that it will not attack Beirut,” he said. However, he added that the focus is south of the Litani River.
Early in January, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said that the government had arranged about 90 per cent of the required disarmament of Hizbullah. He blamed the continued Israeli violations of the ceasefire, including the continued Israeli presence on the ground at five points in south Lebanon, for the delays.
Following multiple Israeli strikes that hit north of the Litani River on Monday, the Lebanese government said that the attacks were undermining its efforts to make the state the sole holder of weapons in the country.
The Lebanese government is supposed to review the situation south of the Litani River this week and to agree on the next phase north of the river. According to informed sources, if Israel keeps striking Hizbullah, it will complicate the ongoing negotiations between the Lebanese government and Hizbullah on the gradual disarmament of the group and its integration.
Meanwhile, according to international diplomatic sources, it seems clear that Netanyahu is determined to have another round of military strikes against Iran, hoping that this time he will be able to induce regime change in the country.
According to the third international diplomatic source who spoke to the Weekly, regime change in Iran was the ultimate target of Israel’s 12-day war against Iran in June last year.
“The regime survived then, but it remains to be seen what could happen next, especially with the threats that Trump has been making against Iran following the Venezuelan affair,” the source said.
On 3 January, the US announced that it had conducted a military operation in Venezuela and captured former president Nicolas Maduro and his spouse and transferred them to New York where they will be facing trial on charges including drug-trafficking.
This was the first such operation since 3 January 1990, when US forces entered the US Embassy in the Vatican to capture Panamanian president Manuel Noriega and move him to the US to face similar charges.
Following the capture of Maduro, Trump made press statements warning several other world leaders to succumb to the will of the US or face the consequences.
The three international diplomats agreed that it would be hard to exclude Iran from the possible target list, even if the target is more likely to be Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rather than Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian.
They also agreed that it would be hard to overlook Trump’s warning to the Iranian leaders over possible US intervention if the authorities in Iran were to take violent action against the demonstrations that have been taking place in several Iranian cities.
The Iranian authorities have been increasing their arrests of the demonstrators. However, the same sources said that “for now” Trump’s focus is Venezuela and Colombia. Iran’s turn might come later, especially with the continuous lobbying by Israel “along with several other states” for action on Iran.
They also agreed that when it comes to Iran, Israel, and not the US, will likely take the first shot.
While neither the Iran-allied Hizbullah nor the Houthis in Yemen represent serious backing for Tehran today, the same sources agreed that Israel will want to inflict further harm on both groups ahead of any new round of missile strikes against Iran that may open the door to regime change in Tehran.
In Cairo, this gloomy forecast regarding regional stability has been compounded by dramatic developments in Yemen and Somalia that threaten open-ended warfare among local players and in a proxy context that involves Israel in both countries.
“Israel is looking for a strong foothold on the Red Sea, this much is clear,” the Egyptian source said.
Egypt has rejected the claimed secession of Somaliland from Somali that Israel has recognised as an independent state. It has also called on both Saudi Arabia and the UAE to pursue all necessary good offices with their allies in Yemen to help maintain “the stability and territorial integrity” of the country, as articulated in a statement issued by the Foreign Ministry following a meeting between President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi and Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan in Cairo on Monday.
“Our policy is not to take sides in order to avoid aggravating the conflict. Our policy is to call for consensus,” said the Egyptian official. He added that Egypt is fully on board with an Omani diplomatic go-between endeavour that has been in the works for some time.
On Monday, Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr bin Hamad Al-Bousaidi arrived in Abu Dhabi for talks on the Yemen situation. Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty had discussed the situation with Al-Bousaidi on Sunday. On Tuesday, he spoke with Abdullah bin Zayed, the UAE foreign minister.
“The message that we are trying to put across is that it is not in anyone’s interest to allow the situation in Yemen to get out of hand and that the security of the Red Sea should be managed by the states overlooking it,” the Egyptian official said.
He added that a possible exacerbation of the situation in Yemen and Somalia would be “a nightmare” for the Red Sea region, especially with the ongoing war in Sudan.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 8 January, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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