The US has had 47 presidents since it declared its independence on 4 July 1776, secured its liberation from British colonial rule in 1783, and concluded the confederal experiment (1781-1787), which was crowned with the ratification of the federal constitution in 1787. When this constitution went into effect in 1789, the US elected its first president, George Washington, who served from 1789 to 1797.
Donald Trump’s first entry into the White House in 2017 marked the beginning of a new phase in US presidential elections, introducing a new type of president that is likely to persist for some time. Trump’s second inauguration on 20 January 2025 has been the single most influential factor to shape global affairs since then. His norm-shattering approach has disrupted international trade and revived the 19th-century “Monroe Doctrine”, aiming to secure US hegemony over the “Western Hemisphere.”
Until the dawn of 2026, Trump had stressed the pursuit of peace, even in such complex crises as Gaza and Ukraine. US airstrikes against Iran and Yemen were assumed to be exceptions: not intended to usher in lasting militarisation, but rather to catalyse shifts in regional political situations. As the US approached its 250th anniversary, it appeared to be entering a new era shaped by international accommodations and linkages between the great powers aimed at organising zones of influence and managing the state of the world.
The US invasion of Venezuela shattered all such assumptions. Suddenly, Washington shifted from containing migration and narcotics through economic and military pressure to direct and open occupation. It proved unwilling to engage with Venezuela’s new leadership, represented by Vice-President Delcy Rodríguez and her cabinet, which was drawn from the ruling party. Nor did it shoe in the opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Machado. Instead, it chose to reorder the Venezuelan state according to the vision of Trump and his ruling circle – a vision that most likely involves a prolonged occupation.
Although the “Venezuelan experiment” is still in its infancy, US political analysts agree that the invasion of Caracas is the prelude to a new American phenomenon: the revival of “imperial” force and long-term colonial occupation to reshape and control states and societies.
Washington has more than hinted that its next targets are the invasion and annexation of Greenland, which is ostensibly vital to US “national security,” and military strikes against Iran and Columbia on the pretext of mistreating protesters or narcotic trafficking allegations. Cuba is probably high on the list. Since the 1960s, Havana has frazzled Washington’s nerves by inspiring a succession of “socialist” governments in South America.
As for the implications of this situation for the Arab region, responsible governments must be prepared for what lies ahead in the new year. The region is teeming with failed states controlled by militias and standing on the brink if not already in the grips of civil war. In such fragmented conditions, sects and factions no longer put their stock in national identity as a key to state cohesion. Instead, they imagine that disintegration and disruption can bring about all sorts of eternal bliss. By contrast, mature Arab states with robust national identities who have been spared militias and civil war present an alternative: a national vision with its sights on a time-bound horizon for entering the global race for modernity, advancement, and excellence.
These states rallied around the principle of regional stability with the AlUla Declaration, which crowned the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit in January 2021. That landmark declaration opened channels of communication facilitating the reestablishment of normal and stable relations with Qatar, Turkey, and Iran, while deepening the strategic bonds among Arab states that chose reform as their path to progress.
They understood that attaining the goals of reform necessitates higher levels of coordination and coalition-building around agreed-on strategic objectives and tactical aims. These countries subsequently achieved a measure of success in securing international recognition of the Palestinian state, while intensifying Israel’s international isolation and moving from a devastating Israeli war against Gaza, Lebanon and Syria towards a ceasefire framework. The hope was that this would bring about a moment of respite and allow the provision of assistance to Palestinians so that they can secure a seat at any forthcoming negotiations.
There are many lessons we can draw from the previous phase. The external threat is not hidden or unclear. It is open – especially from Israel which, in its pursuit of a “Greater Israel”, seeks to reshape the region through annexation, settlement expansion, military pressure, and igniting wars with regional actors. What we need is greater mobilisation of academic and scientific resources focusing on US-driven transformations especially as regards Europe’s growing marginalisation and Israel’s impunity for its aggressions against fragile areas already riddled with volatile sectarian, ethnic and regional divisions. To engage with Washington in the coming phase, the Arabs must draw on all their available assets so as not to let hard-won achievements go to waste.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 15 January, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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