Although there are positive signs suggesting a possible return to the path of peace in Lebanon, the danger of a relapse still looms, which could once again draw the country, and the region, into war.
At the end of last week, the commander of the Lebanese army announced the “completion of the army’s operational control over the area south of the Litani River,” signalling that Lebanon has fulfilled its commitments under the ceasefire agreement between Hizbullah and Israel, brokered by the US in November 2024. This, despite Israeli claims that Hizbullah still maintains a presence along Lebanon’s southern border and is rebuilding its capabilities at a pace exceeding the Lebanese army’s efforts to dismantle its infrastructure and disarm it. The UNIFIL denied such Israeli claims.
The November 2024 ceasefire agreement established a monitoring committee to oversee the implementation mechanism comprising the Lebanese and Israeli armies, the United States, France and UNIFIL; it is chaired by a US general. In recent months, Lebanon and Israel have participated at a senior official level, adding a political dimension to the committee that was not included in its original framework.
On Sunday, the Israeli army carried out air strikes on Southern Lebanon, targeting what it described as “tunnels used to store Hizbullah weapons,” without presenting evidence to substantiate its claims. By the following morning, no confirmation was forthcoming regarding the number of fatalities and injuries. On the same day, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam met with the ambassadors of five countries: US Ambassador Michel Issa, his French counterpart Hervé Magro, Egyptian Ambassador Alaa Moussa, Saudi Ambassador Walid Bukhari, and Qatari Ambassador Sheikh Saud Al Thani.
President Joseph Aoun — the fourth consecutive military leader to assume the presidency, following Emile Lahoud, Michel Sleiman, and Michel Aoun — was keen not to let the Christmas holidays pass without delivering the messages he has become known for since taking office. He said that Lebanon’s three leaders — the Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, Salam, and himself — are committed to sparing the country any confrontation. “Diplomatic contacts have not ceased in order to avert the spectre of war,” he said, adding: “I tell you that the spectre of war has been kept away from Lebanon.” Avoiding a broader conflict — namely, an Israeli decision to launch a large-scale war on Lebanon on the pretext of Hizbullah’s disarmament — remains the most pressing objective at this stage.
Rabha Seif Allam, an expert on Lebanese and Syrian affairs at the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, said that Israeli pressure on Lebanon remains intense. “There is a constant threat of a comprehensive war if the government does not disarm Hizbullah,” she noted. She added that, despite Lebanon having fulfilled its obligations under the ceasefire agreement — the removal of Hizbullah fighters, weapons, and all forms of presence south of the Litani River, as stipulated in the accord — Israel has advanced a new argument, claiming that Lebanon has failed to fully disarm the group, a process that would in any case require a long time.
According to statements by Aoun to Lebanese television: “The circumstances that once justified Hizbullah’s weapons no longer exist; they have disappeared, and the army is now present.” He described Hizbullah’s arms as having “become a burden” on the party’s own constituency — a reference to Lebanon’s Shia community — as well as on the country as a whole. “No single segment of the population is obliged to bear this burden any longer; Lebanon as a whole bears its consequences,” he said. Aoun argued that the principle of exclusive state control over arms “is not related to Resolution 1701, but rather because these weapons have completed their mission and no longer play a deterrent role.”
Hizbullah fought against Israel from October 2023 until late November 2024. The war claimed the lives of thousands of Lebanese. The group emerged weakened, having lost its long-time secretary general Hassan Nasrallah, a large number of senior military and political leaders, as well as a substantial portion of its military hardware and experienced fighters. Hizbullah supporters do not hide the feeling they are facing a “dual threat”: Israel on the one hand and the new Syrian regime on the other, a perception that has reinforced their attachment to arms.
The new Syrian leadership under Ahmed Al-Sharaa and Israel are engaged in negotiations under US sponsorship. Damascus is demanding the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the demilitarised zone defined by the 1974 disengagement agreement that followed the October 1973 War, in addition to an end to Israel’s near-daily air strikes and bombardments on Syria. Following the fall of Bashar Al-Assad on 8 December 2024, the Israeli army occupied areas in southern Syria and carried out hundreds of air raids and artillery strikes targeting Syrian military infrastructure and hardware, stripping the Syrian army of its capacity for confrontation.
Since Al-Sharaa assumed power, extremist Islamist forces loyal to his rule have fought against Alawite communities along Syria’s coast, leaving more than 1,000 Alawites dead. The incidents were described by human rights organisations as “massacres.” Similarly, Sunni Bedouin tribes, with the backing of the forces of the new government, carried out campaigns against Druze communities in the south, resulting in the deaths of hundreds. Meanwhile, parts of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, and its countryside are seeing conflicts between the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and the Syrian army loyal to Al-Sharaa’s government.
Hizbullah fears a Syrian-Israeli understanding reached at its own expense. Hizbullah fought major battles against Jabhat Al-Nusra, Ahrar Al-Sham, and other groups formerly linked to Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State that, are now aligned with Al-Sharaa and his forces during the Syrian Civil War from 2011 to 2019. Hizbullah’s weapons have thus become both a domestic and a regional issue, and it is unlikely that much time will pass before their fate is clear.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 15 January, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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