Both Egypt and Sudan have hailed US President Donald Trump’s offer to mediate once again in the conflict over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), with the aim of “once and for all” striking a balance between guaranteeing the amount of water flow to the two countries while granting Ethiopia the right to generate a substantial amount of electricity from the dam.
Mohamed Hegazy, a former assistant to Egypt’s foreign minister, was optimistic that the offer may deliver positive results because it is based on a legally binding draft agreement reached via various negotiations rounds from November 2019 to February 2020 in Washington.
That agreement, he added, was a consensual one that may now need amendments or addenda, but it presents a basis on which the parties can build on.
According to Hegazy, the US is working to limit the risk of maintaining the status quo in a region whose security carries international importance. “Put simply, safeguarding the Red Sea, the Horn of Africa, the Gulf of Aden, and the strategic straits is vital for global stability. Therefore, reaching a legally binding agreement would spare both the region and the wider world from real danger,” he told Al‑Ahram Weekly.
Ayman Zeineddin, a diplomat and lawyer, appeared less optimistic about the possibility of an agreement, indicating that Trump’s intervention will likely not come without asking for a return. Besides, he explained, any gains that Egypt is likely to achieve through the offer may be withdrawn once Trump is out of power.
Many US politicians are not happy with Trump’s present policies, and they may annul them once he leaves office, Zeineddin said.
Various political analysts seemed to agree with Zeineddin that Trump will likely ask for a return. They base their arguments on the fact that Trump mentioned Egypt’s role in facilitating a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in the same letter that he talked about intervening on the GERD, a sign that he is linking the two issues.
In response to Trump’s letter offering to mediate, President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi said he valued Trump’s mediation offer. In a post on X, Al-Sisi affirmed Egypt’s position and concerns about the country’s water security in regard to Ethiopia’s building of the GERD.
He affirmed Egypt’s commitment to “serious and constructive” cooperation with the Nile Basin countries, in accordance with international law, in a way that protects shared interests and avoids causing harm to any party.
Sudan’s army leader Abdel-Fattah Al-Burhan also welcomed Trump’s mediation offer. He hailed Trump’s initiative as a step “to find sustainable and satisfactory solutions that preserve everyone’s rights.” he wrote on the X platform.
There was no comment from Ethiopia.
On Friday, Trump posted on social media a letter he sent to Al-Sisi, saying that “no state in this region should unilaterally control the precious resources of the Nile” in a way that harms downstream countries and warning that the dispute could escalate into a major military confrontation if left unresolved.
Trump’s proposal included allowing “predictable water releases” to Egypt and Sudan during periods of drought and prolonged drought as well as supporting Ethiopia’s ability to generate “substantial amounts of electricity” from the dam for domestic use and exporting the surplus.
Abbas Sharaki, a professor of geology and water resources at Cairo University, sounded optimistic about the US offer to mediate via an official letter with a proposal.
However, he highlighted the fact that Trump had used the phrase “water sharing”.
“The difference between Egypt and Ethiopia has been over the filling and operation of the dam rather than on sharing the water. If we discuss water sharing, other Nile Basin states may ask to be involved in the talks. Or Ethiopia may ask for these countries to take part in the negotiations,” he said.
Hegazi regarded Sudan’s reaction to Trump’s offer as positive as it shows that Sudan realises that Egypt’s stand is not only serving its local interests, but also those of the downstream countries.
“Khartoum realises that a breakthrough via negotiations is not only in the interest of Egypt, but also in those of Sudan, Ethiopia, and the other Nile Basin states,” he said.
This is not the first time that Trump has offered to mediate on the GERD. In July last year, he told reporters that his administration was “going to have that [issue] solved very quickly.” However, no further steps were taken.
The other attempt was during his first term in office when he invited the three countries for US-mediated talks in Washington in November 2019.
Although the three countries reached a consensual draft agreement after a few rounds of talks, the talks collapsed in the final session in February 2020 when Ethiopia withdrew asking for more time for internal consultations.
Ethiopia inaugurated the GERD in September last year.
Egypt regards the dam as a grave violation of international law and an existential threat to its water security. It fears that it will have severe effects on the Nile’s water flow.
Sudan wants coordination of the operation and refilling of the GERD reservoir to avoid unexpected impacts on its small dams. Sudan’s Roseires Dam, for instance, located some 110 km downstream, could be at genuine risk if Ethiopia makes large water releases without prior coordination.
The three countries have engaged in on-and-off negotiations for over 10 years to reach a legally binding agreement that will regulate the filling and operation of the dam.
During that period of negotiation, Addis Ababa has insisted on guidelines for running the GERD that are not binding and can be changed.
In a related development that illustrates the growing challenge of water scarcity in Egypt, Irrigation Minister Hani Sewilam said Egypt’s water demand currently stands at 88.55 billion cubic metres (bcm) per year, significantly exceeding the country’s renewable water resources.
He explained in an address to the Senate this week that Egypt’s annual water demand is divided as follows: 68.1 bcm for agriculture, 12.45 bcm for drinking water, 5.5 bcm for industry, and 2.5 bcm for other uses.
In comparison, he added, the country’s renewable water resources are estimated at 65.35 bcm per year, including Egypt’s 55.5 bcm share of Nile waters, 650 million cubic metres from desalination, 1.3 bcm from rainfall, and 7.9 bcm from deep non-renewable groundwater.
The ministry currently compensates for the gap by reusing 23.2 bcm of water annually.
Sewilam highlighted that per capita water availability has sharply declined, from 2,000 cubic metres per year in 1962 to below the water poverty line of 1,000 cubic metres in the 1990s and reaching around 500 cubic metres per year today.
Hegazi expressed the wish that resolving the water issue between the three countries via a legally binding agreement could pave the way in the next phase to an agreement for cooperation based on regional partnerships and cooperation in the fields of energy, trade, transport, and electricity networks and in other fields.
“Water cooperation will then be part of comprehensive regional cooperation that considers the interest of all the parties concerned,” he said.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 22 January, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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