Israeli officials gave an early warning to Western airlines using their airports this week that a “highly-sensitive situation might arise by the weekend”, according to media reports. Meanwhile, many international carriers have already been avoiding Iranian airspace completely. Some airlines cancelled flights to the whole region, even to and from Dubai. KLM, Air France, Luxair and others cancelled specific flights to various countries within the region.
In anticipation of Iranian missiles and drones targeting Israel in the case of war, shelters are being prepared for Israelis to resort to. As the threat of an Iranian counter-attack looms, homes in Israel with their own bomb shelters cost 10 to 20 per cent more than those without. All signs point to a real military build-up towards war on Iran, but the consequences are unpredictable. Except for Israel, almost all countries in West Asia are concerned about the possible American strike. Media reports said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented the Americans with evidence that the Iranians have “crossed red lines already set for them”.
Trump said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland that “Iran does want to talk, and we’ll talk.” Hours later, on his way home, he told reporters aboard Air Force One that the US was moving warships towards Iran “just in case” he wanted to take action. Trump added, “we have a massive fleet heading in that direction and maybe we won’t have to use it.”
Public statements from Iran indicate that the country is preparing for what a military commander described as “all-out war.” Last year, Israel attacked Iran while negotiations between Tehran and Washington were ongoing, mediated by the Sultanate of Oman. This ultimately means that talk of possible negotiations could have been a “diversion” from preparation to military action.
The US military periodically sends additional forces to the Middle East in times of heightened tension. But the Iranians remember how the Americans staged a major build-up ahead of launching airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities in June last year, along with Israeli strikes. Another military buildup was seen in the Caribbean towards the end of last year before the US launched military action against Venezuela and captured the country’s president Nicolas Maduro.
In response to the American military buildup and Israeli threats, Iranian officials are talking about preparedness and the use of “an arsenal not seen before” in retaliation for any attack by the US or Israel. Western media reports claim that China is supplying Iran with missile components and fuel, a claim China will always deny.
In a defiant and rather confident tone, Iranian military officials are being quoted by local media saying the country is “prepared.” Yahya Rahim Safavi, a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and a senior adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, said: “We are preparing for a fateful war with Israel. We possess weapons no one else has... The next war will end this conflict once and for all.”
Another senior military commander, Ali Abdollahi, warned that any attack on Iran’s territory or interests would turn US interests, bases, and centres of influence into “legitimate and accessible targets” of Iranian strikes.
Revolutionary Guards Commander Mohammad Pakpour confirmed that Iran was prepared for any possibility “including an all-out war”. An influential Iranian cleric warned that Iran may target US-linked investments in the region in retaliation for any US attack on the Islamic Republic. Mohammad Javad Haj Ali Akbari, an imam of prayers held on Fridays in Tehran before a large gathering, said, addressing the Americans, “the one trillion dollars you have invested in the region is under the watch of our missiles.”
Such threats are raising concern on the other side of the Gulf. A Gulf-based political analyst told Al-Ahram Weekly that “apprehension is rising” all over the region. “Even those countries that have long been at odds with Iran do not want to see chaos on their doorstep,” he said, referring to the mounting fear in the Gulf Arab states of an Afghanistan-like collapse in the Gulf.
It is not only the threat that fire on the other side of the Gulf might spill over on their side, whether through Iranians targeting American interests in the Arab countries or their proxies hitting oil-rich countries. There are more serious concerns about “the day after” and whether the Iranian regime will collapse or the whole state is left in chaos. Recent memories of Israeli and American military interventions leading to terrorism and instability are still fresh.
Giorgio Cafiero, assistant professor at Georgetown University and CEO of the Gulf State Analytics think-tank in Washington, wrote an article this week about Gulf concerns. He concluded: “From potential refugee crises and economic disruption to militia mobilisation and the rise of radical actors, the second-order consequences of conflict are widely seen as far more dangerous than the challenges posed by a constrained, yet intact, Iran governed by the Islamic Republic.”
Many analysts in the region and in the West note that attacking Iran, whether by the US or Israel or both, will not be as contained as the 12-day war of last year. The prospect of a wider conflict is serious and real, and escalation might have long-lasting consequences on the whole region. Trust in the US having a strategy to follow up on its action is deteriorating, with failed examples still vivid all around us.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 29 January, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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