As time rushes forward, each new year passes faster than the previous ones. When has January slipped to February, leaving us settled in our old routine? We need to slow down, view our global landscape, evaluate our human progress.
How is 2026 faring? Is there war or peace? The world needs to know.
They say “much talk of peace but many threats of war” captures the climate of the global landscape of 2026.
The world is experiencing a declining peace, rising threats, higher level of armed conflict than any time since WWII. Who said so? The Global Peace Index (GPI), the world’s leading measure analysing global peacefulness across 163 nations, covering 99.7 per cent of the population based on 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators. If they analyse trends in peace, then they must know.
Analysts warn that 2026 is projected to be even more volatile, with potential for “forever wars” and increased drone AI warfare. Those high-risk zones for escalation include the Taiwan Strait, Russia, NATO confrontations, and primary among them is the Iran-Israel proxy battle. The landscape seems busier and the geoeconomics confrontation emerges as the top global risk of 2026.
We had great hopes and dreams of 2026, with talks of peacemakers, unifiers, ceasefire and Board of Peace — a year of rest and calm, some stability and security. The outlook, based on projections, is a complex mix of ongoing wars amidst much talk of diplomacy and lukewarm desire for peace.
What a heavy-laden month January has been, starting the year with such adverse global actions. Rather than move forward, we go backward, delaying our bright resolutions for peace and happiness.
So, on our global landscape, which are the hottest spots of heightened risks? Let us count the ways.
Early in January, the US military captured Venezuela, arrested its president, Nicolas Maduro, and his wife, and seized 30 to 50 million barrels of oil, giving Washington unprecedented influence over Venezuela’s oil sector — which holds the world’s largest proven reserves. Is that possible? Under international law, it is illegal and a gross violation of state sovereignty. The world may be shocked, but it was done without restraints. How do other Latin countries feel as they sit uneasy, fearful for Columbia, Mexico, and Cuba — not to mention Greenland.
The Middle East is a powder keg, ready to explode in every direction. The fragile ceasefire of 25 October 2025 between Israel and Palestine had little desire to cease the fire. Israel never ceased its violations and its casualties. As of 1 February, 32 were killed, reaching 509 Palestinians killed since the first phase of the supposed peace process. January launched phase two, ignoring the implementation of phase one. Such are the present treaties: insincerity, duplicity, and hypocrisy.
Iran is the primary hotspot on the landscape with a US “massive armada” stationed in the North Arabian Sea/Gulf ready to strike within close range. Why? The US president deployed the “beautiful armada” with its missile destroyer in order to force Iran into a new nuclear deal. It was understood that Iran’s nuclear facilities were obliterated in June 2025. What more does he want? Maybe an “all-out war” is Iran’s response.
Suddenly the world is in a dangerous place. The sight of the “armada” has contributed to the unrest of the global landscape as diplomacy has been replaced by coercion.
The landscape is still seething in a world marked by old wars, old conflicts, and lingering risks of more imminent wars and seemingly unreachable peace.
Still raging is that old war of Ukraine and Russia, with no immediate end in sight. Maybe a ceasefire is in the works, but to no effect. Russia is already in possession of approximately 20 per cent of Ukraine’s territory. While Ukraine refuses to cede more territory and other restrictions, the war continues.
Other areas are haunted by the memories of hate and conflict, as the past and present coexist. Despite an outward appearance of peace, underlying tensions and trauma remain — in Yemen, Myanmar, Haiti, Taiwan, and other spots in the world.
We are reminded of the 18th and 19th centuries, eras of imperialism by the British, Spanish, Dutch, French, and others. While colonial rule is largely ended, some analysts have concluded that invaders disrupted the stability of whole continents.
We still have military interventions in a world of democracy, intended to put dread in our hearts, violating international law, creating a fundamental shift in the global security status.
This is the “age of the strongman”, a 21st century global trend, challenging democratic principles. Some claim democracy is already dead, which would be catastrophic, since so far it is the safest protection of individual rights. The irony is the elite still rule, even in a democracy.
As of 2026 the global state of war and peace still hangs in the balance. Peace, much as is seemingly desired, remains volatile and deeply uncertain. Too many conflicts threaten to escalate, while diplomatic efforts are half-hearted and unsentimental.
If “there’s a will there’s a way,” we find no will, we see no way.
It is time to reread the monumental work of Leo Tolstoy, an unflinching portrayal of war’s brutality. “War is not courtesy,” wrote Tolstoy, “but the most horrible thing in life.” Away from its glory and heroism, he presents the battlefield “as a place of chaos”.
War and Peace should be studied by those “strongmen” — those leaders of the 21st century.
“Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee/ Agreed to have a battle; For Tweedle Dum said Tweedle Dee/ Has spoiled his nice new rattle.”
Lewis Carrol (1832-1898)
* A version of this article appears in print in the 5 February, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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