It does not seem that either of Sudan’s conflicting parties has managed to secure the kind of overwhelming power that could end a war that has been unfolding for over two years in a favourable fashion.
“We cannot expect things to change in Sudan anytime soon. This would be highly unlikely,” said an informed Egyptian source. “The maximum we can expect is for both parties to refrain from trying to escalate in pursuit of new territorial gains,” he added.
He explained that this is not just about the hesitation of the allies of both the fighting factions in Sudan to lend the help required to secure a victory. It is also, he said, about the regional dynamics that makes it necessary for such allies to refrain from escalating a proxy confrontation in Sudan.
In April 2023, the war started in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and its former ally the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The rhetoric of both sides was about political differences, but political and security sources who spoke on the matter say that the conflict is more about power and the control of resources.
The core of the war is about regional alliances, they say, with conflicting regional powers trying to establish control in Sudan through this or that Sudanese faction. Egyptian sources have always insisted that they are not contributing to the hostilities between the SAF and RSF.
Egyptian officials have attributed their support for the SAF as part of a political doctrine that favours state institutions over militias. This week, top Egyptian diplomat Badr Abdelatty reiterated this position, adding that there is no way to equate a state institution and a militia.
The conflict in Sudan, in the words of one of the sources, is a fight for the country. It is, he added, a fight that comes with parallel battles in Yemen, Libya, and elsewhere. Today, he said, this fight is taking on a wider front as it has come to involve Ethiopia, Somalia, and the self-declared independent state of Somaliland.
The increased support that the SAF has been receiving from key regional players, the source argued, has helped it to cut down the military advances of the RSF in the west of Sudan, even though battles are still unfolding on key roads that connect Khartoum with Al-Fasher in west Sudan where the RSF has been stationed.
According to the same source, there are many channels of support that have been reaching out to the SAF which has denied the RSF the ability to maintain its military progress on the ground.
“The SAF had made some advances that have helped it to regain Khartoum after it was forced away from the capital to the east of Sudan,” he said.
On Sunday, the first passenger flight landed at Khartoum International Airport since the fighting started in April 2023.
According to a statement by the Sudanese Civil Aviation Authority, the flight is operated by national carrier Sudan Airways. It arrived from Port Sudan in the east of the country, where SAF leaders had been stationed since the beginning of the war.
Sudanese Prime Minister Kamil Idris was aboard the flight, according to the Authority.
According to UN statements, close to 1.5 million civilians have been regaining their homes in Khartoum since late last year, though this number only represents a fraction of the Khartoum residents who have been forced out of the city.
Overall, around 11 million Sudanese have been displaced, either internally or across the country’s borders, due to the SAF-RSF fighting. UN figures released this year said that the fighting in Sudan has created the largest displacement and hunger crises in the region.
Speaking off the record, a UN source who works on Sudan said that the return of the families to their homes in Khartoum is an indication that the fighting is coming close to an end. This is also part of the recognition of both the SAF and the RSF that neither is set to have an all-out victory, despite the external aid extended to both sides.
Neither the SAF nor the RSF accept that they will have to stop the fighting without either having the upper hand. But both sides know that each will continue to resist and to hold on to the territories under its control, he said.
According to a Cairo-based diplomat, “the war has not come to an end. There is no winner and no loser, but Sudan has been subject to a de facto division.”
The diplomat said that it is not clear how this situation will work in the long run, but for now both the SAF and the RSF will continue to control certain parts of the country and continue to battle over strategic areas.
He added that unless the regional powers decide they can reach an agreement on a political formula for the future of Sudan, this reality will continue.
“We have not seen the end of the war, and we have not seen the end of the atrocities against civilians, especially women who have been subject to shocking sexual violence,” he said.
“It is just that for now the war is slowing down.”
* A version of this article appears in print in the 5 February, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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