Ahead of the highly anticipated Iran-US talks to be hosted in Ankara on Friday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrived in Cairo on Wednesday for talks with President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi.
The visit comes as part of a two-stop tour that also includes Saudi Arabia, where Erdogan met with Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman.
Both the Turkish foreign and defence ministers, Hakan Fidan and Yasar Guler, are members of the official delegation with Erdogan in a tour that is described in the Turkish press as a bid to strengthen newly established regional alignments and to discuss key regional issues.
“There has been a growing space for close cooperation with Turkey and Saudi Arabia during the past few months on key regional issues,” said an Egyptian official.
He added that “for the most part” the three countries have been brought together by a shared vision for regional stability “that has helped everyone put the differences of the past few years aside and to work together for the sake of regional stability.”
A top regional issue that the three capitals are working on relates to US threats to conduct military strikes against Iran.
“Given the volume of the US military build-up, it is hard to exclude the possibility of an American strike. It seems possible, but there is always a way to try to avoid it,” the Egyptian official said.
“It would have unforeseen consequences on regional stability, especially if it caused the fall of the regime in Tehran in the absence of any serious and solid vision for the future of such a major country as Iran.”
Egypt, he added, favours a diplomatic exit from the current crisis and “is trying to advocate one as far as possible”.
Speaking off the record, diplomatic sources said that Saudi Arabia is highly apprehensive about the possible consequences of an American strike on Iran. According to one of these diplomats, leaks shared with American news outlets about a Saudi warning to the US over the possibility of an increase in Iranian military capacity should be read as a sign of apprehension rather than of incitement.
“A possible [US] military strike against Iran that would only weaken the regime [in Tehran] would make the Iranians more aggressive and more invested in pursuing a larger and more important military to the disadvantage of Arab Gulf neighbours who have never managed to fully dispel their apprehensions about a possible Iranian exercise of military power,” the source said.
The call for a deal between the US and Iran on Tehran’s nuclear programme is being led by the UAE. Addressing a panel at the World Governments Summit in Dubai on Tuesday, UAE Presidential Advisor Anwar Gargash said that the US and Iran need to reach an agreement.
“I think the region has gone through various calamitous confrontations. I don’t think we need another one,” he said.
Along with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Oman, and Pakistan, the UAE has been invited by Turkey to be present at the Ankara-hosted US-Iran talks on Friday.
Iran has expressed its willingness to negotiate in good faith and to give guarantees that it will not pursue nuclear military capacities. US President Donald Trump has warned of the “bad things” that could happen to Iran if a deal is not done.
However, the talks in Turkey will not just address Iran’s nuclear capacities. Other key issues on the table include possible facilities that Tehran could give to American oil companies to work in Iran and a commitment from Tehran to moderate the militants that work against the Israeli occupation of Arab territories, including Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hizbullah in Lebanon.
“It is clear where the balance of power lies today, and it seems very clear that the Iranians know that some smart concessions are in order,” said another diplomatic source.
Iran, he added, had realised during the 12 days of Israeli strikes last summer that under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Israel is willing to take risks if these could weaken or topple the regime in Tehran.
“Today, the Iranian [regime] knows very well that Israel is doing everything it can to get Trump to conduct heavy strikes against Iran that will not just topple the regime but also leave Iran in a state of disarray,” he said.
Luckily, he added, there are some in Washington who realise that the collapse of the regime in Iran does not serve US interests in the region.
“We really hope that the storm will pass peacefully because any war scenario would be really bad news for the entire region, including Egypt,” said the Egyptian official.
He argued that it would be hard to predict the “far-reaching” consequences of a US war on Iran, “including on the Bab Al-Mandab Strait and consequently on the trade through the Suez Canal,” he said.
“Clearly, whatever happens in Iran will have echoes in Lebanon and also in Gaza, which is still suffering the consequences of a two-year Israeli war,” the official said. “We have been trying very hard to get things moving on Gaza, and we just managed to get Israel to open the Rafah Crossing for people to pass from and into the Strip,” he added.
The official said that Egypt is still trying hard, along with the other two mediators, Qatar and Turkey, to “deal with” Israeli attempts to put constraints on the operation of the Rafah Crossing.
A US strike against Iran, he said, could mean that the Rafah Crossing, which started to operate on Sunday with fewer than 300 people passing from one side to the other, would be shut again when tens of thousands of Palestinians need to leave Gaza for medical treatment and other pressing reasons and tens of thousands wish to be reunited with their families in Gaza.
The official said that despite its awareness that an American strike on Iran is not off the table, Cairo is working to move forward with the second phase of the ceasefire that was signed in Sharm El-Sheikh in October last year after a 20-point plan proposed by Trump.
This includes preparations to allow for around 10,000 policemen affiliated to the Palestinian Authority to enter Gaza to help ensure civil security.
During his visit to Cairo on Sunday, King Abdullah of Jordan discussed with President Al-Sisi the management of the situation in Gaza following the composition of the Gaza Governance Committee that is presently operating from Egypt.
A press statement issued by Presidential Spokesman Mohamed Al-Shennawi said that President Al-Sisi and King Abdullah had stressed the need for the prompt and comprehensive implementation of the terms of the ceasefire agreement, including the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza “without restrictions” and the “swift commencement of early recovery and reconstruction operations”.
Al-Sisi and Abdullah, the statement added, had rejected any attempt to displace the Palestinians from Gaza and “all violations and arbitrary practices against the Palestinian people” in Gaza and in the West Bank.
According to the Egyptian official, both Egypt and Jordan, as well as Qatar and Turkey, have been calling on Washington to pressure Israel into cooperating on the implementation of the ceasefire deal, especially with regards to the entry of humanitarian aid.
He added that it is “expected” that this matter will be addressed by Steve Witkoff, the US envoy to the region, who held talks in Israel on Tuesday with Netanyahu and top Israeli security and military personnel.
This is the second visit by Witkoff to Israel in less than two weeks. The previous visit came ahead of an agreement on the operation of the Rafah Crossing. Witkoff will then head to Turkey for the negotiations on Iran, where Tehran will be represented by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 5 February, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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