A key lesson in analysing international crises is that we should try to filter out all the noise that distracts from the objective facts and the balances of power. This is especially true of situations at the threshold between war and peace and approaching the brink of humanitarian catastrophe, where the factors shaping a conflict in progress or about to erupt need to be seen clearly.
Over recent weeks, the world has been holding its breath as the US and Iran edged closer to all-out confrontation, with the US deploying an array of naval and non-naval forces in the Arabian Sea, while Iran prepared military manoeuvres near the Strait of Hormuz.
At the time of writing, nearly a week ago, the question of war and the hope for peace are still up in the air. Mediators from the Arab and Islamic world are desperately trying to steer both sides back to the negotiating table to hammer out differences peacefully over a complex agenda that includes Iran’s nuclear programme, the unilateral sanctions against the country, Tehran’s relationship with its proxies, and Washington’s embrace of the Israeli positions on Gaza, Iran, Lebanon, and every other contentious issue.
Meanwhile, in response to pressure from Congress, the US Attorney General has released 25 million files related to Jeffrey Epstein. This controversial figure – who was born in Brooklyn, New York, on 20 January 1953 and who died by suicide in his cell on 10 August 2019 at the New York Metropolitan Correctional Center at the age of 66 – had no connection whatsoever to international politics, let alone to the current brinkmanship between Washington and Tehran. Yet the noise precipitated by the publication of that huge trove of documents, and the deluge of reportage surrounding it, is overshadowing the events in the Gulf.
True, the Epstein case was never totally absent from the media during that time. However, its current monopolisation of the media landscape, social media platforms, and every outlet for conspiracy theories – among which is the theory that the release of the Epstein files was deliberately timed to obscure the major truths of the international order in the Trump era, with its breathless shifts from the attack against Venezuela to the attempted annexation of Greenland to the military buildup in the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea, and Gulf preparatory to overthrowing the “mullahs” in Tehran – has created a deafening din.
This was not driven solely by the story of that figure who infiltrated the upper crust of the “Big Apple”, mingling with Manhattan billionaires and socialites, and then their global counterparts: the wealthy princes, politicians, and business magnates who flew to New York to attend UN sessions or monitor their assets on the world’s leading stock exchange in the US’ economic capital. His primary trade was access to underage women, and he plied it in the most opulent settings: luxury palaces, islands in seas of phosphorescent blue, and fountains of the finest wines.
Stories of this sort titillate human curiosity, and in our social media age, the gossip they stir can drown out the explosions of war – especially when scandal reaches the doorsteps of the likes of President Trump, former president Clinton, and Prince Edward. This type of phenomenon is not new.
In this case, however, there is an aspect of deliberation to it: first, Congress’ insistence on disclosing all the material detailing the jet-set social relations and private gatherings, and second, the extraction and global dissemination of names, regardless of how far removed they may be from the source of scandal. The result is a process more akin to muckraking than to the search for truth sought by legislators and defenders of freedom-of-information laws.
One is reminded of a similar case dating back to the early 20th century around the time of the Bolshevik Revolution, when the collective imagination was captured by the monk Grigori Rasputin, whose sexual and hypnotic influence over the Russian imperial family endowed him with an aura of sanctity and spiritual power.
A more recent scandal obsession surfaced following the end of the Cold War, at the time of the disintegration of Yugoslavia: “Monica-gate”, involving president Clinton and the White House intern Monica Lewinsky.
As loud as the Epstein-related noise may be, it will not stop the forces of nature in international relations from proceeding along their path. Nor will it keep human wills from clashing, whether on the battlefield or at the negotiating table.
Accordingly, the mediators will have to block out the noise, and once they do, they will face various intractable issues shaping a very tense and volatile negotiating environment. Not least is the fifth Gaza war, with its regional extensions and ongoing hostilities in Gaza and Lebanon.
On top of this comes the US fleet taking up position to support Iranian protesters and Iranian manoeuvres at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz to counter it. All this has created a state of apprehension and fear of itchy trigger fingers amid a complex and nerve-wracking environment in which the two sides’ priorities are miles apart.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 12 February, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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