The report, Building on Momentum: From Promise to Progress?, captures the discussions of the Middle East Consultation Group (MECG), a track 1.5 dialogue that brought together current and former policymakers, diplomats, and regional specialists. Its overarching message is measured but clear: the region may be facing a narrow yet potentially meaningful opportunity for diplomatic movement, even as big structural risks continue to cast long shadows over prospects for stability.
The MECG initiative was launched in December 2024 amid persistent regional turbulence following the 7 October 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel and the cascading conflicts that followed.
The report’s foreword explains that the group was conceived as a confidential forum for candid exchange at a moment when official diplomatic channels were under what it describes as “extreme pressure.” Rather than negotiating agreements, participants were tasked with reflection — probing the underlying political and security dilemmas that recurrent crises have left unresolved for decades.
Consultations extended over twelve months, from December 2024 through December 2025, spanning multiple international venues including Cairo, Amman, Abu Dhabi, Doha, Munich, New Delhi, Washington, DC, as well as a retreat in the Bavarian Alps. Participants reflected a broad geographic and political spectrum. The group included Israelis and Palestinians alongside figures associated with Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Representatives connected to multilateral institutions — among them the United Nations, the European Union, the League of Arab States, and the Union for the Mediterranean — also contributed to the discussions.
Central to the group’s deliberations was the Gaza Peace Plan endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2803 (2025). The agreement reached in October 2025 is portrayed as a pivotal, if fragile, turning point. According to the report, the plan halted a cycle of escalation, facilitated the release of Israeli hostages, and alleviated humanitarian suffering in Gaza. Yet MECG members repeatedly underscored the precariousness of the moment, warning that implementation gaps, mutual mistrust, and shifting domestic political priorities could quickly erode the gains achieved.
The publication makes clear that debate within the MECG was neither uniform nor detached from the region’s wider tensions. Many participants reaffirmed the two-state solution as the principal reference framework for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Others, however, questioned whether evolving realities on the ground require a reassessment of traditional paradigms. Alternative concepts — including confederal arrangements and rights-based approaches prioritizing equality, security guarantees, and freedom of movement — were examined. Despite these divergences, the report notes broad agreement that the absence of any credible political horizon would likely intensify instability rather than contain it.
Empirical support for the analysis was provided through Arab Barometer surveys commissioned specifically for the study. Polling conducted between August and December 2025 across Israel, the Palestinian territories, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, and Syria offers insight into regional public attitudes. Among Palestinians in both Gaza and the West Bank, the most frequently preferred outcome remained “two states, Palestine next to Israel based on the 1967 borders,” with support levels higher in Gaza. Israeli responses appeared more divided, though a majority of respondents indicated support or strong support for the Gaza Peace Plan itself — a finding the report interprets as reflecting public fatigue with prolonged confrontation.
Beyond Gaza, MECG discussions devoted sustained attention to Lebanon and Syria, described as occupying a “strategic crossroads” in the Levant. In Lebanon, the November 2024 ceasefire with Israel and UN Security Council Resolution 2790 are framed as stabilizing but incomplete steps. Survey data cited in the report suggest Lebanese citizens prioritize reconstruction, strengthening state authority, and addressing disputes linked to the Blue Line and Shebaa Farms. Participants emphasized that Lebanon’s recovery trajectory remains closely tied to governance reform and economic stabilization — challenges that predate the latest conflict yet have been sharply intensified by it.
Syria’s political transition following the December 2024 ouster of Bashar al-Assad is presented as another critical inflection point. Arab Barometer findings referenced in the publication indicate relatively high levels of optimism among Syrians regarding the new transitional leadership. The lifting of most US and EU sanctions during 2025, coupled with increasing Gulf interest in reconstruction investments, is viewed as creating potential economic momentum. MECG members nevertheless caution that sustainable recovery will depend on inclusive governance, institutional rebuilding, and credible mechanisms for transitional justice capable of restoring public trust.
Participants also highlighted risks that could complicate Syria’s transition, including the enduring presence of armed non-state actors and Israel’s expanded military posture in southern Syria. A January 2026 joint statement involving the United States, Israel, and Syria is cited as evidence of evolving security coordination, though the report avoids projecting definitive conclusions regarding its long-term implications.
On regional cooperation, the publication advances a dual narrative. The Middle East’s demographic profile — particularly its large youth population — is characterized as a latent driver of economic renewal and social transformation. At the same time, entrenched conflicts, low levels of regional economic integration, fragile multilateral mechanisms, and persistent mistrust among states continue to inhibit collective initiatives. The report references examples such as the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum and bilateral Israel-Jordan cooperation as evidence that pragmatic collaboration remains feasible when anchored in shared technical and economic interests.
Economic pressures dominate public opinion across surveyed Arab societies, where respondents most frequently identify the economic situation as the principal national concern. Corruption, governance challenges, and internal instability follow closely. MECG members argue that any durable regional security framework must address these domestic stressors alongside geopolitical rivalries and unresolved territorial disputes.
Methodologically, the Arab Barometer surveys underpinning the analysis employed probability-based sampling and face-to-face interviews across most countries, with Israel surveyed through a nationally calibrated online panel. Adjustments were introduced in Gaza to account for large-scale displacement, aiming to preserve representativeness under exceptionally difficult field conditions.
Consistent with the MECG’s consultative mandate, the report concludes without categorical prescriptions. Instead, it stresses the importance of sustained political engagement, resource commitments, and accountability mechanisms capable of reinforcing fragile diplomatic openings. While acknowledging that dialogue alone cannot resolve entrenched conflicts, the publication presents structured exchange as a stabilizing instrument at a time defined by volatility, polarization, and rapidly shifting regional dynamics.
With its editorial deadline set in late January 2026, Building on Momentum offers a snapshot of regional debates at what participants describe as a historically sensitive juncture — poised between cautious optimism and recognition of the Middle East’s long record of disrupted transitions and missed opportunities.
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