The edict issued by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to forbid nuclear weapons production is, therefore, now dead and will be buried with him in his grave.
Shia Muslims worldwide must follow the teachings of a knowledgeable scholar, or marja taqlid, for their religious teachings as long as he is alive.
When the maraj’ is dead, Imami Shias, who believe in twelve divinely ordained leaders or imams, in general, should choose another living expert in theology to follow for taqlid, or emulation.
Shia imams start with Ali ibn Abi Talib and end with Mohammad Al-Mahdi, who is in occultation and will return to bring justice.
Iran is the only country with Twelver Shiaism as its state religion.
This standard theological practice by Shias will now cast its shadow on the future of Iran’s nuclear programme, which was the central goal for the war that the United States and Israel have launched on the Islamic Republic.
The edict against the acquisition, development, and use of nuclear weapons was issued by Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, since 1989, dating back to the mid-1990s.
It was confirmed in a public announcement in October 2003 and followed by an official statement at a meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in August 2005.
Since then, Iranian officials have repeatedly argued that their nation, which has an ambitious nuclear programme, has no intention of making a nuclear bomb.
On 26 February, just two days before the United States and Israel started their new campaign, President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran would not develop nuclear weapons because Khamenei had banned them.
“The religious leader of a society cannot lie like politicians. “When he announces that we will not have a nuclear weapon, it means we won’t have it,” Pezeshkian said ahead of an expected third round of nuclear talks with the United States.
Khamenei was killed by a coordinated US- Israeli operation two days after a third round of nuclear talks between US and Iranian negotiators failed to persuade Trump of pursing diplomacy rather than military action.
In outlining his objectives in “Operation Epic Fury”, Trump has declared that preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon was his first goal.
Trump has framed the strikes as a counterproliferation operation and a direct consequence of Iran’s refusal to renounce nuclear ambitions despite three rounds of negotiations:
Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who continued to accuse Tehran of seeking a nuclear weapon, has also repeatedly made the annihilation of Iran’s nuclear programme his number one priority.
Trump and Netanyahu have also made it clear that they want regime change in Iran, and they have designed the ongoing campaign to instigate anti regime popular uprising.
Now that Khamenei is gone, the key question is what follows and whether a new supreme leader in Iran will adhere to Khamenei’s fatwa or he will have another opinion.
Many analysts and Iran’s observers believe that Khamenei’s fatwa to avert nuclear weapons was sincere because of both theological and practical reasons.
Theologically, the fatwa is considered to be consistent with Islamic Sharia, or the code of laws, rules, and traditions of war in Islam.
Politically, the edict was the strongest statement by the head of Iran’s regime to ensure refraining from producing a nuclear weapon.
Iran’s constitution has established Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist), which is the foundational principle of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Under this principle, a senior Shia cleric would hold absolute authority over the state in the absence of the Twelfth Imam, which Imami Shias believe he will emerge from a long occultation to establish justice.
When the post of the supreme leader, or Velay-e Faqih, becomes vacant, an Assembly of Experts, an 88-member clerical body, convenes to deliberate and choose a successor.
Candidates for the Assembly and eventually for the supreme leader post must first be vetted by the Guardian Council, ensuring the field is tightly screened.
On Monday, the offices of the Assembly of Experts in the holy city of Qum were bombed by Israel and the United States, Iranian news agency Tasnim reported.
The Assembly’s offices in Tehran were bombed overnight. The strikes could underscore a message to the Assembly’s members to avoid selecting a hardliner replacement to Khamenei.
It is widely believed that a successor to Khamenei would likely continue his theological school, which follows traditions set by Ayatollah Rohallah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic and his political line.
Iran has already declared an interim provincial three-member leadership council, which will assume the supreme leader’s duties until a replacement is formally appointed.
The temporary body comprises President Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, who serves as the Guardian Council’s representative.
There are several frontrunners for the supreme leader’s position, and all eyes will be on him to see whether he will take a moderate or confrontational posture ahead.
Senior Shia clerics play a major role in Iran in steering their congregations, even on political issues. On Tuesday, two prominent clergy, Grand Ayatollah Hossein Nouri Hamedani and Grand Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi, issued fatwas calling on Muslims worldwide to take revenge for Khamenei’s killing.
Concerning the nuclear ban fatwa, may Shias believe that a Shia can continue to follow the teachings of the dead marja or find another knowledgeable cleric to follow.
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