Diplomacy is over, and it is now war between the US-Israeli alliance and Iran.
Negotiations between the United States and Iran concluded on 26 February without reaching any serious agreement, with talks having been scheduled to resume on 2 March in Geneva in the presence of experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
The world was anticipating an imminent breakthrough, particularly after both sides described the last round as positive and expressed optimism.
The only exception was US President Donald Trump, who stated that “we’re not exactly happy with the way they negotiated. They cannot have nuclear weapons, and we’re not thrilled with the way they’re negotiating.”
Just two days later, at precisely 10am, a fierce American and Israeli air campaign against Iran began. This was not intended as a mere show of force or a bargaining tactic to secure a better deal, but rather as a full-scale operation aimed at toppling the Iranian regime.
The campaign was dubbed “Epic Fury” by the United States and “Lion’s Roar” by Israel.
US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth released a statement saying it was “the most lethal, most complex, and most precision aerial operation in history”. He said that the strikes would continue to target Iranian missile stockpiles and production facilities.
The air campaign began with the neutralisation and destruction of Iran’s western air defences, carried out in parallel with strikes on its command centres. The objective was to completely paralyse any Iranian capabilities that might obstruct the aerial offensive in the western sector.
As in last year’s 12‑day war, long‑range munitions were employed in the opening phase, including air‑launched ballistic missiles and cruise missiles of both subsonic and supersonic types.
Once the first phase succeeded, medium‑sized drones from both the United States and Israel were immediately deployed to loiter for extended hours. Their mission was to detect and track any moving Iranian vehicles that could be air-defence systems or ballistic missile launchers.
Coordinates were then relayed in real time to fighter patrols or to new strike assets such as LUCAS loitering munitions and HIMARS guided rocket artillery, the latter being tested by US forces during these operations.
The Israeli Air Force was not left to operate alone, and it was reinforced with firepower and logistical support via aerial-refuelling planes that enabled it to conduct successive attack waves with greater freedom. These were synchronised with US Navy missile strikes, producing devastating effects against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Iranian military.
According to one US defence official, “the US military carried out nearly 900 strikes in the first 12 hours of this operation,” with the strikes coming “from land, air, and sea and including drones”.
It defended itself “against 100s of incoming Iranian ballistic missiles”, he said, adding that Iran has 2,000 long-range missiles and 2,000 shorter-range missiles.
The timing of the operation itself was striking, since Israeli and American strikes are usually carried out at night. The decision to launch this time around at the start of the day raises several questions.
The US official confirmed to the US network Fox News that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and 10 top Iranian leaders had been killed in initial Israeli strikes on his compound.
Multiple sources said that the timeline for the strikes had to be moved up based on CIA intelligence that the compound, where Khamenei and others were meeting, was a “target of opportunity”.
“There was a deliberate decision to accelerate the timeline,” he said, which was why the US and Israel took the unusual decision to strike during the daytime to achieve the element of surprise and to target the meeting.
Trump wrote on his Truth Social page that “Khamenei, one of the most evil people in History, is dead. The heavy and pinpoint bombing, however, will continue, uninterrupted throughout the week or, as long as necessary to achieve our objective of PEACE THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE EAST AND, INDEED, THE WORLD!”
“This is the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their Country. Hopefully, the IRGC and Police will peacefully merge with the Iranian Patriots, and work together as a unit to bring back the Country to the Greatness it deserves.”
Iran vented its fury not only on Israel but also on American bases located in the Gulf states, Iraq, and Jordan. It even attempted to target Cyprus in an unjustified manner.
Despite the psychological and material damage to these countries, the campaign has had no operational impact worth mentioning. The American attacks on Iranian territory have not ceased, and instead they have been ongoing since Saturday.
It appears that the primary objective of the Iranian attacks on the Gulf states was an attempt to push them to pressure the United States to stop the military operations. However, the time for diplomacy has now passed.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated to the Qatari network Aljazeera that “some of our neighbours are angry. I wish they understood that the current situation in the region is not our fault. This was not our choice; it is a war imposed upon us by the United States and Israel. If they are angry, that anger should be directed at the US and Israel. They shouldn’t pressure us to end this war; they should pressure the other side.”
But instead of Iran’s indiscriminate campaign, which is facing international condemnation, efforts could have been concentrated on targeting Israeli air bases and exerting pressure on Israeli air defences. Through heavy barrages over Israeli air space, the Iranians could have exhausted Israeli and American air defences and inflicted the maximum possible damage on military infrastructure.
This would have hampered aerial operations over Iranian airspace or, at the very least, eased the pressure on what remains of Iran’s air defences, which have been destroyed for the second time in less than a year. This destruction has been directly followed by the loss of even more precious medium-range missile launchers, which are increasingly difficult to replace.
Iranian air space is now open and primed for further air strikes, which have not been limited to military targets but have also extended to judicial and government facilities. With this environment established, the opportunity is certainly open for US strategic bombers, whether the conventional B-52 and B-1 or the stealth B-2.
These aircraft carry massive payloads that can deal painful blows, further weakening the Iranian regime.
The bombers commenced their first missions of the year on Saturday night, and they will likely repeat them while the Iranians attempt to boost morale following the confirmed shooting down of American MQ-9 and Hermes-900 drones earlier this week.
The current US-Israeli military operations in Iran are a blunt test of the Iranian regime’s resilience since 1979. It remains to be seen whether it can withstand this violent campaign directed at its core and the targeting of its leadership, which is similar to what occurred with Hizbullah in Lebanon.
This was stripped of its weaponry and command capabilities, weakening it to the point where it can no longer support Iran or attack Israel.
The same thing applies to the Houthis in Yemen, who launched missiles in parallel with the Gaza war. It appears that all these parties are now making their own calculations that transcend what was previously known as the “Axis of Resistance”.
Iran’s other allies also have their own calculations. The massive American support for Israel, providing air-defence munitions, bombs, and missiles, as well as supplying forces during the operation, spares Russian forces a great deal of trouble, as none of these supplies will now be sent to Ukraine.
Additionally, current operations in the Middle East may delay the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks.
As for China, the current war in the Middle East provides a significant opportunity for the Chinese to study American military doctrine and munitions and their overall impact. They can gather observations that might prove useful in the event of a future invasion of Taiwan.
Furthermore, the US Navy is depleting a vast amount of munitions that will require a significant amount of time to replenish.
The story certainly will not end here, but the current operations represent a monumental opportunity to learn about modern warfare. In their aftermath, the Middle East may also change beyond recognition.
The writer is a researcher in the Security and Defence Programme’s Amament Unit at the Egyptian Centre for Strategic Studies (ECSS).
* A version of this article appears in print in the 5 March, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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