In last week’s article on the importance of an Arab project, I concluded that this matter “requires considerable concerted Arab thinking” and, moreover, that this should “take place in the framework of an Arab – not American – board of peace, development, and regional security.”
This task has become exceedingly difficult because the situation has spiralled beyond the war on Gaza and its repercussions, including the current US-Israel war on Iran. It now includes an Arab dimension because, to everyone’s surprise, Iran did not restrict itself to confronting Israel and the US, but also extended its response to the Arab countries on the Western shores of the Gulf, violating their sovereignty and international law. This, moreover, is despite all the efforts by the Arab states to avert war during the negotiations over the Iranian nuclear programme. But before proceeding further regarding the new reality at the heart of the great storm, it is important to salute the valiant Arab soldiers manning the air-defence systems in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and Jordan. All these brave men, using the most sophisticated weaponry, are defending their countries and the honour of the entire Arab world. They merit our greatest respect and gratitude, as do their leaders.
It had been expected that the war would follow the path of the 12-day war in June 2025, with another window for negotiations and mediation opening soon into it, leading to a settlement process similar to the one in Gaza where efforts were focused on securing a ceasefire and preventing a return to conflict.
In the lead-up to the current conflagration, there was no doubt that the balance of power favoured the US-Israel axis over Iran. That became even clearer on the first day with the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, along with 43 other political and military leaders. It seemed as though Iran had learned nothing from the previous engagement after discovering that its security had been shamefully compromised. Yet strangely it did not try to buy time through negotiations in order to remedy the security gaps. Instead, it merely upgraded its missile systems and bolstered its proxy militias, pushing Hizbullah towards a Lebanese-Israeli war in which Beirut would be destroyed, just as Gaza had been.
But what actually happened was entirely different. Iranian resolve was directed against the Arab states on the other side of the Gulf, as well as Oman on the Arabian Sea and Jordan on the Gulf of Aqaba. The targets were not just US bases, from which no bullets or missiles were fired, but also civilian targets, including airports, seaports, oil facilities, and tourist sites. It also interfered with free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, by sinking oil tankers on their way to global markets.
In other words, Iran sought to transfer the pain being inflicted on it by Israel and the US to the world through the global economy, which cannot function without energy coming from the Gulf. It also sought to transfer its pain to others in the region which it seeks to subjugate to the Iranian will – regardless of whether the person in power in Tehran is a supreme leader or a president, since ultimately authority resides with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.
To put this situation in its proper context on the Middle Eastern chessboard, the “Iranian project” has pitted itself against the Israeli project in a region filled with rival projects. Unfortunately, there is no Arab project among them.
Both projects – the Israeli one, which has been joined by the US, and the Iranian one, which is now effectively in the hands of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, who are also trying to manage domestic discontent – have entered into competition over the flesh of the Arab states. As Israel broadened its campaign by invading Lebanon, Iran pushed Hizbullah to provoke Israel while itself firing missiles at Arab Gulf states.
Unfortunately, the US under Trump lacked sufficient maturity and, therefore, subordinated itself to the Israeli will instead of bringing its peace project for this region to fruition. Moreover, the US is not only determined to continue the war but to intensify its operations. The situation in Washington is as murky as the situation in the region is complex. One can only logically conclude that the lack of a comprehensive project for peace and a political settlement process in the Arab region reflects a failure to fully grasp the fact that neither Israel nor Iran has the right to compete for control of the interests of independent and sovereign Arab states.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 12 March, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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