With massive death and destruction all round, it is even more dangerous that the situation is only going downhill.
As we enter the third week of an unnecessary and unwelcome war, the threat of widening regional conflict seems closer than ever. The entire world, topped with Middle East countries, is bracing for long-term, dim economic prospects, especially as oil prices rise around the clock.
With the price surpassing the $120 per barrel mark, this is the highest level recorded since the Covid pandemic, and it cannot be justified as a “small price to pay” for saving the world from the danger Iran represents, especially amid the near global and even American consensus that this is a war with no clear plan or sufficient consideration of the implications of victory or the day after.
It is clear that both US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had assumed that, within hours of the assassination of Iran’s top political and spiritual leader, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with other top Iranian military leaders, the regime would collapse, and Iranians would fill the streets to cheer for US and Israeli bombing before overthrowing their government.
This did not happen, and it seems impossible with heavy bombs falling over the heads of Iranian civilians, killing more than 1300 people so far, including the 70 schoolgirls whose school was bombed on the first day of war. As many analysts and observers expected, the continuation of the war and its expansion have only strengthened the hardliners within Iran, together with Trump’s repetitive and bizarre statements that he must have a role in picking Iran’s next leaders, including the next Ayatollah. Had Trump and his advisers known Iran better, they could easily have guessed that even hinting at backing a given Iranian figure under the circumstances would amount to that figure’s political death sentence, ending any prospect they might have for leading the country or moderating its stands.
The US president also seems to be stuck into the Venezuela model, hoping to repeat it in Iran and elsewhere. Looking for a cooperative political figure even after the stunning kidnapping and capture of the former Venezuelan president, Nicolas Maduro, can never be repeated in Iran, where the history of suspicion of US intentions dates back to long before the Islamic Revolution of 1979.
Meanwhile, Israel’s decision to launch a huge attack against Iran’s oil storage facilities on Sunday has reportedly not only angered its partner in this war, Trump, but also the oil-producing Gulf nations who have repeatedly alluded to feeling they were being dragged into a military confrontation with Iran that can only put the entire region on fire. It is no coincidence that this Israeli attack took place at the same time Israeli officials were leaking false reports that the United Arab Emirates had launched a direct attack against an Iranian water desalination facility. The UAE strongly denied any such claim.
While bombing the oil facilities in Iran on Sunday, and threatening to bomb the key Iranian island of Kharg, through which most of Iran’s oil exports go, Israel’s war mongering premier must have known that this could only result in Iranian threats to bomb oil facilities in the Gulf. This would not only put pressure on the Gulf nations to join the war, it could also lead to period of conflict much longer than the four to six weeks the US president floated, and destroy the region’s economy for many years to come.
In that nightmare scenario, the US’ closest Arab allies in the region will hurt the most, and be unable to provide even one per cent of the trillions they promised US President Trump in investments for the US economy. This is one of the most puzzling aspects of Trump’s decision to join Netanyahu in striking Iran, contradicting not just long-standing campaign promises that he would not start any new wars in the Middle East, but also his more recent effort to end the war in Gaza and establish a Board of Peace to work on restoring stability in the entire region.
Egypt has been firm in expressing solidarity with allies and fellow Arab nations in the Gulf, and has categorically rejected the unjustified Iranian attacks against them, aimed not just at US bases and military facilities, but also civilian targets including airports and hotels. Meanwhile, Cairo has been exerting tremendous effort to find a way out of this war, one that would spare those Arab Gulf countries more threats and dangers. Despite all this pressure, the leaders of the Gulf nations must be praised for their awareness of the danger of being directly involved in a war they were not consulted about in the first place, nor even provided with the same level of military protection against as Israel by their US ally.
The one party who has an interest in expanding the war and keeping it going regardless of any costs is the Israeli premier, Netanyahu, backed by extremists within the Trump administration who support Israel for messianic reasons and back its plans to become the dominant power in the region; the US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee is a case in point. Top US Department of War officials are also seeking to keep their job and satisfy the big boss by acting Rambo-like, making repeated daily false claims about the destruction of 90 per cent of its missiles and 80 per cent of its drones while those missiles and drones continue to rain on Israel as well as Arab Gulf countries.
Israel’s decision to expand its attack against Lebanon, killing more than 400 people in one week and starting a ground invasion to occupy Lebanese territory under the false banner of a “buffer zone”, is another example of how it wants to use every possible excuse to keep this region in a permanent state of war. Lebanon’s Hizbullah had probably calculated that they were next on the list, and that was the justification they used to launch their missiles against Israel despite domestic opposition.
Like the rest of the world, this region is entitled to the real reasons behind the war that is wrecking it, particularly as Washington’s justifications and goals seem to be shifting on a daily basis. Considering that the countries of the region are the ones paying the price, we also have the right to know what might be the exit strategy, and how it is that, following this war against Iran, overall chaos for many years to come can be avoided.
US memory might be short especially as it fights easy wars from afar, but the peoples of the region have not forgotten the consequences of the unjustified and illegitimate US war to invade and occupy Iraq in 2003, simply because we have been living with the consequences.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 12 March, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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