he present war also lacks the global support except for Israel who looks as the one sitting in the driver’s seat. Many countries in the Middle East are wondering who will be the next victim of Israel’s aggression that is supported by the United States and acquiesced by the rest of the West. The Middle East and the whole World will pay dearly for this war that must immediately stop.
After more than two weeks of American and Israeli heavy air bombardment and Iranian missile retaliations, it is obvious that neither side is going to capitulate or back off. More countries in the region are targeted and pressured to join in the war. The US and global economies are signaling alarm of a major crisis. Those countries and individuals with lower income would be the most affected. Sensible people should act before a devastating global economic crisis or a catastrophic nuclear holocaust would hit us.
A face-saving solution must be found. Egypt is trying its hands. Regional powers, Europeans, Russia and China should cooperate to broker a compromise. The Russian and Chinese abstention on the recent pro US UN Security resolution rather than vetoing it could facilitate their role as mediators. The war’s exit should be through an internationally guaranteed gateway. The United Nations Security Council must be reactivated as a principal tool to maintain international peace and security. It could approve, guarantee and supervise the implementation of an agreed compromise solution.
Such a solution should be comprehensive and goes beyond a mere cease-fire arrangement. It should also include international guarantees against a unilateral violation, breach or termination as happened to the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Because of the lack of confidence between the waring parties, negotiations should be initially conducted in secrecy and through one or two mediators trusted by both sides. I believe that Egypt and Turkey are uniquely qualified to play that role.
I expect initial reluctance on both waring parties to engage in such indirect discrete negotiations. I also believe that developments on the ground in the military battlefield and on the global economic scene would pressure both sides of the war to use trusted backchannels to explore a face-saving exit. We should explore the main elements of an agreement that would end the war while enabling both of its parties to declare victory. It could incorporate the following ideas:
- The Iranian nuclear program could easily be internationally inspected and verified in accordance to an agreement similar to that which was almost reached in Geneva with Omani mediation on the eve of this war.
- The agreement could include some language that requires both Iran and Israel to respect limitations on their long-range missiles and drones such as those restrictions included in the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) of 1987. MTCR is an informal, voluntary political understanding among 35 nations aimed at limiting the proliferation of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) systems capable of delivering weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
- A non-aggression pact between the US, Israel, Iran and other countries in the Middle East might open the way to subsequent discussions on regional security. All permanent members of the United Nations Security Council should participate in such deliberations. A Security Council’s Resolution would endorse the agreed upon security arrangements.
- Easing of the US and Western sanctions on Iran should also be part of that compromise deal. It could be done gradually and parallel to the return of navigation in the Gulf to its pre-war status.
- Regional powers such as Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan could play key roles in implementing any security guarantees which could be agreed upon. Their participation could make for the loss of Western countries credibility with Iran since the termination of the JCPOA.
- An Arab-Islamic peace keeping force could guarantee the safety and free passage of civilian cargo ships through the strait of Hurmuz following the withdrawal of foreign military naval presence.
Regardless of when the war stops, it will never be possible to go back to the Status quo ante. We should start discussing the day after in order to find an off-ramp exit of this extremely dangerous quagmire. As wisely put, more than a century ago, by H.G. Wells “If we don't end war, war will end us”.
*Abderahman Salaheldin is a retired Egyptian Ambassador and a political science scholar
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