As the military confrontation between the United States and Israel and Iran intensifies, Iraq finds itself once again in a highly sensitive geopolitical position, standing on what feels like the front line between warring powers.
After years of attempting to regain stability following decades of war and internal strife, the country now faces the possibility of becoming a theatre for regional repercussions over which it has little control.
Iraq’s geographical position is only part of the story, however, since the complex network of political and military ties linking the country to both Washington and Tehran, combined with the ongoing American military presence in the country and the role of its Iranian-aligned armed factions, ensures that it remains deeply entangled in the conflict.
The Iraqi government is trying to maintain a precarious balance. Prime Minister Mohamed Shia Al-Sudani has repeatedly stressed that Iraq rejects being a battleground for settling scores, asserting that the country “will not allow its territory to be used to attack neighbouring countries, and at the same time it rejects any violation of its sovereignty.”
This stance reflects an awareness that any direct entanglement in the war could drag Iraq back into the cycle of violence and instability that it has been trying to escape since the defeat of the Islamic State group (IS) in the country.
Maintaining this delicate balance is far from easy, however. Iraq retains security and military relations with the United States, while large segments of its political and security landscape remain closely tied to Iran through influential political parties and armed factions that, after years of fighting IS, have become key actors in Iraq’s domestic equation.
These factions are among the most critical variables that could either pull Iraq into the conflict or keep it on the sidelines. While some view the current confrontation as part of a broader regional struggle between the so-called “Axis of Resistance” and the US-Israeli alliance, many within Iraq recognise that any direct involvement in an open war with Washington could have catastrophic consequences.
Iraqi political analyst Ihsan Al-Shammari said that the “full engagement of these factions in the war could once again turn Iraq into a direct battlefield with the United States, something the Iraqi state could not bear at this stage.”
He added that some of the factions are fully aware that any escalation could trigger substantial US strikes on Iraqi soil, endangering both the country’s security infrastructure and economy.
Beyond the armed factions, the US military presence in Iraq remains a sensitive factor in the current war. Although American forces officially continue to provide training and support as part of the International Coalition against IS, their bases could quickly become targets if Iranian-linked forces decide to retaliate against US or Israeli strikes in the region.
Iraqi researcher Rinad Mansour described Iraq as living with a “strategic paradox” by trying to balance its relations with both the United States and Iran amid escalating regional tensions.
He emphasised that Iraq is not just a battleground between two powers but a sovereign state attempting to regain its authority, though its sovereignty remains fragile under the strain of rising regional conflict.
The Kurdistan Region of Iraq is watching developments with similar concern. People in the region, which host coalition military sites near the Iranian border, understand that any expansion of the war could involve it directly, especially after Tehran carried out missile strikes within Iraq, citing attacks by opposition Kurdish groups.
Any escalation on this front could open another theatre of conflict inside Iraq’s borders.
The threats Iraq faces extend beyond security as the war also carries significant economic risks for a country almost entirely dependent on oil exports. Iraq produces millions of barrels of oil a day, with oil revenues accounting for over 90 per cent of state revenues, making any disruption in regional stability or export routes a direct threat to the country’s economy.
Iraqi economic expert Nabil Al-Marsoumi said that while rising oil prices might initially appear beneficial, they could carry substantial risks if production is disrupted or infrastructure is threatened. He warned that Iraq is one of the countries that is most vulnerable to prolonged disruptions in the regional energy market.
All these factors make Iraq’s public mood highly sensitive to the possibility of the war expanding. People in Iraq have painful memories of conflicts that began outside the country’s borders but ended up causing domestic disasters.
The Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s lasted eight years, claiming hundreds of thousands of lives, followed by the Gulf War and the severe economic sanctions that ensued. The US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 opened another chapter of violence and sectarian strife.
In the following years, Iraq fought another war against IS, a conflict whose effects remain deeply embedded in society and state structures. Researcher Ghassan Al-Atiya explained that Iraqis have become acutely aware of the costs of regional wars, noting that “Iraq often pays the price for conflicts it had no part in starting.”
Baghdad today is striving to keep the country out of the escalating war between Israel and the United States and Iran. But Iraq’s geopolitical reality makes this goal extremely difficult. The country lies at the heart of the region’s strategic corridors, and domestic entanglements with US and Iranian interests make it nearly impossible to fully separate internal issues from the broader conflict.
Iraq appears to be walking a tightrope by attempting to maintain neutrality while simultaneously preparing for the repercussions of a war that could expand at any moment.
However, while it has little luxury in choosing its role in the conflict, it is trying to avoid becoming a main battlefield. The question that concerns many observers in Baghdad remains, can Iraq remain outside the current war, or will its location and its relations with the powers involved once again place it at the centre of the fighting?
* A version of this article appears in print in the 19 March, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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