One of the first countries to have qualified for this year’ World Cup could now be the first to leave – without a ball being kicked.
Iran’s World Cup place in the US has been put in doubt ever since the US-Israeli war against the country began on 28 February.
Recent back and forth statements by Iran and the US have still left Iran’s participation in the tournament unclear.
To recap, on the first day of the war, Iran’s Football Federation President Mehdi Taj was quoted as saying: “What is certain is that after these attacks, it’s hard to look at the World Cup with hope” but added “the sports chiefs are the ones who must decide on that”.
On 3 March US President Donald Trump said he “does not care” if Iran take part in the World Cup.
A week later FIFA said it anticipated Iran’s national team will be allowed to come to the United States, where it will be playing, even with war going on between the countries. FIFA President Gianni Infantino said he had met with Trump that night and had received assurances that Iran would be permitted to come to the US.
But a day later, on 11 March, according to Iranian Sports Minister Ahmad Donyamali, Iran would not be competing in the World Cup. He told state television that the country will not participate, “given that this corrupt government assassinated our leader [Ayatollah Ali Khameini]. Under no circumstances can we participate in the World Cup.”
Trump said a day later he did not think it would be “appropriate” for the Iranian soccer team to attend the World Cup, and cited safety concerns as a reason while the countries remained embroiled in a war. “The Iran National Soccer Team is welcome to The World Cup,” Trump wrote on his social media site, “but I really don’t believe it is appropriate that they be there, for their own life and safety”.
One more item on the chronology list of dates: on Friday 13 March, pushing back on Trump’s comments, Iran’s national soccer team insisted “no one can exclude” it from playing in the World Cup. Instead, a post on the team’s official Instagram account suggested maybe the US team should be excluded after Trump indicated that the host country couldn’t guarantee the safety of the Iranian players.
As of writing, Iran have not yet officially told FIFA, football’s world governing body, that they have withdrawn from the tournament. The Iran team’s riposte on Instagram appeared to say it still wants to participate, and pointed out that the tournament is run by FIFA – not Trump or the US.
And they seem determined to make their own decision, wanting to call their own shots, rather than have one imposed upon them from the outside.
So, what’s next? Neither Iran nor Trump have fully shut the door on Iran’s participation (while it is far-fetched, if the US refused to host the Iran team, it could risk being removed as World Cup host by FIFA). At any rate, at the moment, FIFA remains adamant Iran will play their scheduled matches against New Zealand, Belgium and Egypt.
If Iran do withdraw, FIFA’s regulations give the governing body – in other words Infantino – wide discretion to choose a replacement, but it is unclear who that would be.
One option could be to cancel a planned 31 March playoff between Iraq and the winner of a match five days earlier between Bolivia and Suriname, with Iraq taking Iran’s place and the other team taking the spot reserved for the playoff winner.
The most likely scenario is thought to be a fellow team from the Asian Football Confederation, either Iraq, who could secure qualification anyway through their play-off match this month, or the UAE, who missed out on the play-offs.
Note, however, that FIFA’s rules state that a replacement need not be from the same confederation.
For now, FIFA is likely to wait. The play-off matches at the end of the month will determine the final list of qualified teams, which will make any decision easier to make.
It would be a pity if Iran, which qualified in March last year, boycott the World Cup. They are a power in Asian soccer, ranked No 20 in the world by FIFA out of 211 teams, have qualified for their fourth straight World Cup edition, and have qualified for six of the past eight World Cups. They have not been lower than No 24 since the last World Cup in Qatar in 2022.
At 31 in the world, Egypt will probably shed no tears if Iran do a no-show at the World Cup. The two most likely replacements, Iraq or the UAE, are 58 and 68, respectively. The prospective game between Iran and Egypt is on 26 June.
There are consequences for withdrawing. Should Iran pull out of the World Cup – again, still speculative – their football federation would forfeit at least $10.5 million.
All 48 qualified teams get $1.5 million from FIFA to cover preparation costs. FIFA will also pay $9 million in prize money to each of the 16 federations whose teams fail to advance from the group stage,
The Iranian federation also would face disciplinary fines from FIFA – at least $321,000 for withdrawing up to 30 days before the tournament, and at least $642,000 if the decision is taken in the last month before kickoff.
Iran would also risk being excluded by FIFA from qualifying for the next World Cup in 2030.
But if Iran do play, there is now likely to be even more scrutiny on safety around the team’s matches, and the squad’s planned training base in Arizona.
Iranian politics in and out of World Cup stadiums is nothing new. The country’s games at the 2022 World Cup, including against the US, took place against a backdrop of mass anti-government protests in Iran.
During their second match against Wales, there were confrontations between fans with opposing views about Iran’s government, and given the current heightened state of tension, it is possible a similar scenario could play out this summer. Los Angeles, where Iran are scheduled to play twice, is home to one of the world’s largest Iranian communities.
There are also likely fears from Iranian soccer players about playing in a tournament abroad where they could be met by a diaspora of mainly government detractors while their families face threats back home.
Iran must also be concerned by possible defections by some of their players who might want to seek political asylum in the US. This month, two of the Iranian women’s soccer team, which arrived in Australia to play at its Asian Cup tournament before the US and Israeli bombing attacks on Iran started, stayed in Australia on humanitarian visas.
No qualified team has ever withdrawn from the World Cup finals for political reasons since the event was first contested in 1930.
Iran would be the first.
The country must now wrestle with the uncomfortable truth: being hosted by a country with which their government is at war.
Despite the comments by Iranian sports minister Donyamali, it is still too early to rule the national team out of the World Cup. The BBC reports that the Islamic Republic of Iran ultimately has the final say, regardless of what the minister might say.
In the meantime, one of Infantino’s favourite slogans these days is ‘Football Unites the World’.
But sometimes football does not unite the world.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 19 March, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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