In the early 1980s, a novel titled The Mahdi was published by the British writer Philip Nicholson, better known by his pen name A J Quinnell. The novel opens with a striking premise: the possibility that a deeply rooted religious expectation, the anticipation of the Mahdi, could be used to influence Muslim societies.
Regardless of its fictional nature, the work raises a broader question: how do research institutions and intelligence agencies around the world view religious movements built around the expectation of a “saviour” or a dramatic historical transformation?
The expectation of a redeemer is not unique to one religion. In Islamic tradition, both Sunni and Shia, there is the belief in the coming of the Mahdi, who is expected to appear at the end of times to fill the world with justice after it has been filled with oppression.
Judaism contains the idea of the awaited Messiah, who will restore the kingdom and bring redemption to the people of Israel. Christianity centres on the belief in the second coming of Christ at the end of history. Even in Buddhism, there is the concept of the future Buddha known as Maitreya, who is expected to appear in a later era to renew the teachings and guide humanity into a new stage.
Because this expectation appears across multiple religions and cultures, it has attracted the attention of many Western scholars who have studied it from social and political perspectives. Movements that anticipate a redeemer or a decisive historical transformation often possess a powerful capacity to mobilise large groups of people. They are driven by collective hope, the hope of deliverance from injustice, disorder, or prolonged crisis.
For this reason, Western research institutions have studied such phenomena since the mid-20th century in order to understand their potential impact on political stability.
One of the most prominent is the RAND Corporation, a strategic research organisation established in the United States after World War II to provide policy analysis for the American government. Studies produced by RAND and other think tanks have examined the role of religion in politics and the influence of religious belief on social movements, particularly in politically sensitive regions such as the Middle East.
Intelligence agencies, including the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Britain’s MI6, have also followed religious phenomena that might evolve into protest movements or political revolutions. Officially, the purpose of such studies has not been to manipulate religious beliefs but to understand how societies respond when political conditions intersect with powerful religious narratives.
Interest in this subject intensified after several major events in the late 20th century. The Iranian Revolution of 1979 demonstrated how religious discourse could mobilise a broad movement capable of reshaping the political order of an entire country. In the same year, the seizure of the Holy Mosque in Mecca shocked the Muslim world when an armed group proclaimed that the long-awaited Mahdi had appeared.
Such events prompted scholars to examine the phenomenon of redeemer expectations across different religions as a social dynamic with potential political consequences. When religious belief intersects with social frustration or political crisis, the idea of a saviour can become a powerful mobilising force capable of moving large segments of society.
From another perspective, strategic think tanks have played a significant role in shaping major policy debates concerning the Middle East. Researchers affiliated with the RAND Corporation have produced numerous studies on the region’s future, energy security, and political transformations. Some of these studies later appeared in policy discussions preceding the Iraq War, leading many observers to associate such institutions with the intellectual frameworks that influenced American policy in the region.
Historical studies have also suggested that, at various moments in the 20th century, certain Western powers attempted to exploit internal divisions within Muslim societies by supporting radical or extremist groups for geopolitical or economic purposes. These strategies were not intended to promote religion itself but rather to intensify internal fragmentation, thereby weakening these societies’ ability to unite in confronting larger challenges.
This history highlights the importance of fostering critical awareness of international policies and collective political consciousness, ensuring that societies retain control over their own political and social destinies rather than allowing religious beliefs to be instrumentalised by external actors.
In the light of these realities, it may be necessary to rethink how deeply rooted religious ideas, particularly beliefs centred on the expectation of a redeemer or a great historical transformation, are understood within our societies. Rather than focusing solely on external strategic interpretations, greater attention should be directed towards education, interfaith dialogue, and strengthening social and political awareness within communities themselves.
Understanding religion primarily as a source of ethical values, rather than merely a tool for political mobilisation, may reduce the likelihood that such beliefs can be exploited for external purposes. Likewise, promoting social justice and equality of rights can diminish the temptation to seek miraculous solutions to complex problems through the arrival of a redeemer.
Ultimately, the most sustainable path lies in enabling societies to develop their own independent understanding of their religious and historical traditions free from manipulation by external powers.
The writer is an Iraqi journalist based in Baghdad.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 26 March, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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