US President Donald Trump, who described the war in Iran as an “excursion” recently when receiving the Japanese prime minister at the White House last week, gave Iran an ultimatum to open the Strait of Hormuz in 48 hours on 21 March, failing which he would “hit and obliterate” the energy infrastructure in Iran.
Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Mohamed Baghez Ghalibad wrote in reply that “immediately after our country’s electricity and infrastructure are struck, we will consider vital infrastructure, as well as energy and oil facilities throughout the region, to be legitimate targets and will destroy them in an irreversible manner.”
In the light of these two “existential threats”, it would be risky to predict how the US-Israeli war of choice against Iran will unfold this week and whether it is near its end.
However, on 23 March, after I had finished the first draft of this article, Trump then took to his Truth Social platform to announce his decision to extend his ultimatum for five more days until 27 March, adding that he had held “very good and productive conversations” with Iran over ending the war in the Middle East.
He described the talks as “in-depth, detailed, and constructive”. It is to be hoped that the region and the world will step back from the brink.
The Iranians had previously been given 48 hours to open the Strait of Hormuz, and American marines were seaborne from Japan and from the United States en route to the Gulf. Some talked about a mission to wrest control of the Strait of Hormuz from the Iranians, while others believed that Trump was considering a land “invasion” with the aim of looking for the 60 per cent enriched uranium, of which Iran is believed to possess around 400 kg, and seize it.
Will this operation, or the threat thereof, provide an off-ramp for the American president to claim victory and declare that his administration has achieved all its war aims in Iran and “totally destroyed the Iranian military”? Will it allow him to say that his “excursion” in Iran has ended?
The war will only end when the Israelis call off their attacks against Iran. Israeli Chief-of-Staff Eyal Zamir has talked about the war developing until Easter, in other words in April, and has said that the US-Israeli attack on Iran “is beginning to accumulate into a systemic, strategic, military, economic and government achievement”.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has said that the “intensity of the attacks” against Iran will increase in the coming week. Are we witnessing a coordinated US-Israeli escalation in the last stage of the war before treading on the off-ramp? It could depend on the true mission of the American marines heading for the region and whether Trump will go after the energy sector in Iran. His final decision has been postponed for five days.
The war against Iran is entering its fourth week, and maybe its conclusion, and unlike other American wars in the Middle East, the so-called “forever wars”, this one up to now has been limited to the aerial carpet-bombing of Iran.
Despite the unprecedented intensity of this air campaign over the last three weeks, Iran has been capable of targeting sites near the Dimona nuclear reactor in Israel causing serious damage. Despite Trump’s boast about the “complete destruction” of all Iran’s military assets as well as its nuclear installations, the fact of the matter is that Iran has been retaliating for three weeks in response to the US-Israeli attacks.
Its arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones has not been exhausted. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) stressed one week ago that it has reserves that will enable it to wage war for another six months. The Iranians seem to have planned their capacities well, both militarily and economically, to withstand outside attacks.
Last Sunday, Trump wrote that Iran has offered to negotiate, but he said he had declined to do so while boasting that his war had destroyed the entire military arsenal of Iran. His tweet on 23 March belies this rejection. If it is the case that you have accomplished your aims in Iran, and the Iranians are ready to negotiate, some might ask, why don’t you call it quits and spare American taxpayers, the Iranian people, the peoples of the Gulf and the Middle East, and peoples around the world, the disastrous economic consequences of your war of choice against Iran?
Many American commentators believe that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sleepwalked Trump into a deadly trap in the war against Iran. It could be called “Kushner’s trap” in a reference to Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law.
If the war ends, as it eventually will, its aftershocks will be felt for quite some time throughout the Middle East and the Gulf.
It is incumbent on Arab and Gulf governments, including that of Iran, to chart the way forward towards more resilient, solid, and responsible relations that can lay the basis for a regional security system decoupled from the Americans and the Israelis. This would be a regional security system that would be a shield against American and Israeli military adventurism in the Middle East and the Gulf.
The governments of the region owe it to future generations to find such a solution.
The writer is former assistant foreign minister.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 26 March, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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