Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the civil aviation industry has found itself at the heart of a geopolitical storm, testing its resilience and adaptability in the face of one of the most serious operational crises for the sector since the Covid-19 pandemic.
The military escalation has led to widespread disruption of air traffic across the Middle East, one of the world’s busiest air transit hubs, and the closure of numerous airspaces resulting in what could be described as “air arteries hardening”.
The ongoing war has caused significant disruption to the region’s air traffic network, which for nearly three decades has connected the world’s continents. It has turned the equation upside down, transforming the network from a source of strategic strength into a direct threat to air travel.
The region now finds itself at the heart of a crisis that is redrawing the global air route map by moving away from areas of tension.
Among the repercussions of the crisis is a decline in travel and passenger numbers, estimated at around half a million passengers a day, most of whom were transit passengers who relied on Gulf airports as primary transit points.
With the closure of airspaces and the cancellation and rerouting of thousands of flights, travellers began seeking alternatives at safer airports far from conflict zones even if these were more expensive.
This has led to a shift in travel away from the region with airports and airlines in Turkey and Southeast Asia experiencing a significant increase in demand. This threatens the standing of the air connectivity network and passenger confidence in airlines in the Middle East region.
Not only has the crisis disrupted travel and passengers, but it has also extended to the very heart of the operational processes of airlines and airports, which rely on punctuality, flight continuity, and the continuous operation of aircraft and crews.
The system has been severely disrupted, and in an attempt to maintain operations, airlines have been forced to use longer air routes avoiding conflict zones. This has led to increased flight times and higher fuel consumption.
In some cases, airlines have been forced to reduce the number of passengers or cargo to conserve fuel in anticipation of longer flights than usual. This has resulted in decreased revenue and increased expenses.
Some airlines have found themselves in a dangerous operating environment, forcing them to relocate their fleets or operations to neighbouring countries.
The repercussions of the crisis have extended to the Egyptian aviation sector, which has been affected by the closure of airspaces and the rerouting of flights between Europe and Asia through Egyptian airspace, which remains a safe air corridor for transit flights.
Many flights have been diverted to Egyptian airports, as some airlines have resorted to safer alternative routes and airports. Conversely, Egyptian airlines have been negatively impacted by increased operating costs.
However, experts believe that the continued escalation enhances Egypt’s role as a regional hub and a safe transit centre far removed from areas of tension.
The crisis has also exacerbated the direct financial pressures on airlines due to the sharp rise in jet fuel prices, which alone represent 30 to 35 per cent of operating expenses. Aircraft insurance premiums have increased due to the risks of war, and some airlines have even cancelled flights due to high fuel costs.
The aviation sector thus finds itself caught between the hammer of geopolitical tensions and the anvil of rising operating costs.
The ongoing war has also placed significant financial pressure on travellers, with airfares soaring to unprecedented levels due to the crisis. Experts believe that some of this increase is justified by rising operating costs, but some airlines, particularly those operating within the Middle East, may have exaggerated their price hikes to exceed the actual cost increases.
This has placed an additional burden on travellers who will ultimately bear the cost.
The air cargo sector is a vital artery for global trade, especially with the disruption and instability of some maritime routes, and it has been among the hardest hit. Increased risks have led to longer flight times, higher fuel and insurance costs, and delays in the arrival of perishable goods.
This has resulted in higher shipping costs and increased prices for these goods.
As the crisis continues, some companies have begun shifting their operations to alternative cargo hubs outside the conflict zone, potentially altering the global air cargo landscape.
While the situation remains uncertain, experts believe that future scenarios hinge on crucial variables, most notably the duration and geographical scope of the conflict and energy prices.
If the escalation is contained within weeks, the sector is likely to recover quickly, bolstered by travel demand. Should it drag on and expand, the aviation industry, particularly in the region, will enter a dangerous phase going beyond the current turmoil to threaten its stability, increase losses, freeze expansion plans, disrupt global supply chains, delay the delivery of new aircraft, and weaken the position of regional airlines.
While the current crisis has once again exposed the vulnerability of the aviation sector to sudden geopolitical crises and tensions, it has also demonstrated resilience and adaptability over time.
The greatest challenge remains ensuring the continued operation of the aviation system in an unstable environment that threatens the sector’s economics and the Middle East’s position as a strategic hub in the global aviation system.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 26 March, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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