Cairo and Riyadh have long anticipated the grave risks looming over the region, and both countries have worked to deepen their cooperation, opening new channels and building a comprehensive strategic partnership with Pakistan and Turkey.
In diplomatic and analytical circles, there is a growing belief that recent developments have accelerated the momentum of this emerging quartet, which could evolve into a core alliance capable of reshaping the regional balance of power and helping contain both Israel and Iran.
Informed Arab sources suggest that the direct and serious consequences of this war point to a clear conclusion: Arab and Islamic countries must strengthen their internal resilience, forge new patterns of cooperation, and explore every possible avenue to restrain the most destabilizing tendencies of the Trump administration. At the same time, they must send a firm message to both Israel and Iran that Gulf security is a red line, and that the region will not be allowed to become an open arena for external conflicts.
Within this framework, Pakistan is hosting a quadrilateral meeting of the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt in Islamabad on Sunday and Monday, as part of ongoing diplomatic efforts to reach a settlement to the war in the Middle East.
The Pakistani Foreign Ministry confirmed that the meeting aims to conduct “in-depth discussions on a range of issues, including efforts to reduce regional tensions.” The ministers are also scheduled to meet with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to review the latest developments in the crisis.
For its part, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry announced that Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty had traveled to Islamabad to meet with his counterparts from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey to discuss the ongoing military escalation and explore pathways toward de-escalation.
Pakistan has recently emerged as a potential mediator between the parties, at a time when Iran continues to reject direct negotiations with the United States, while conveying its response to a 15-point US plan through Pakistani mediation.
The four countries appear fully aware that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thrives on prolonged conflict and the opening of multiple fronts. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned that current efforts to pave the way for peace must not once again be undermined by Netanyahu’s positions, stressing the need to protect the diplomatic track from obstruction.
Fidan also cautioned against the deliberate manufacture of chaos aimed at keeping regional states locked in a state of continuous conflict, thereby weakening them and perpetuating fragmentation. He noted that while the recent escalation has generated a degree of regional solidarity, it has also exposed the fragility of existing security arrangements. The region, he added, is undergoing a profound transformation and will not return to its previous state.
Meanwhile, the Egyptian-Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani quartet is working to contain the war and push toward a rapid ceasefire. This represents a formidable challenge and a real test of the quartet’s capacity to influence the trajectory of events. At its core, it will also test the viability of relying on such an alliance to maintain a balance of power and raise the cost for forces threatening regional stability.
These countries are seeking to halt the war through mediation aimed at ending direct military confrontation between Iran, the United States, and Israel. The ministers, in coordination with the Pakistani leadership—both Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir—and with US mediator Steve Witkoff, are exploring avenues to initiate indirect or direct negotiations, particularly in light of Iran’s responses conveyed through Pakistani channels.
These efforts face substantial obstacles, including Iran’s continued refusal to engage in direct talks, the persistence of military escalation, and the complexity of the regional landscape. The quartet is therefore relying on coordinated regional diplomacy to contain the crisis and prevent it from escalating into a broader war.
It is reasonable to question the quartet’s ability to de-escalate the situation. However, the collective weight of these countries may enhance the chances of success. The alliance brings together major regional powers: Saudi Arabia’s political and spiritual influence, Egypt’s central diplomatic role, Turkey’s geopolitical reach, and Pakistan’s strategic capabilities and ties with multiple actors.
At the same time, pulling the warring parties away from confrontation remains an extremely complex task. According to an informed Arab source, Trump appears unwilling to end the war as long as he believes Iran has conceded to his demands, raising concerns within the US administration that he may ultimately be compelled to make concessions regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
Another possible scenario involves a phased agreement that would allow Iran to reopen the strait, scale back its attacks, and begin a gradual withdrawal. However, the extent to which Tehran is prepared to take such steps remains uncertain.
By contrast, Arab and Islamic actors are betting that Iran’s engagement in political discussions around these proposals may signal the beginning of a gradual diplomatic process.
Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, mediating Arab and Islamic states are working to manage expectations, acknowledging that it is still too early to assess the initiative’s chances of success while simultaneously preparing for the possibility of failure. According to informed Arab sources, the absence of an agreement could lead to a prolonged escalation lasting months. In such a scenario, Trump may seek a decisive ground victory by attempting to seize control of the oil-rich island of Kharg, while Israel would likely intensify its strikes against the Iranian government, nuclear, and missile targets.
Ultimately, the emerging quartet of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey represents the nucleus of an important regional alignment and a potentially influential diplomatic front aimed at de-escalating the conflict in the Middle East. These countries possess considerable political, military, and moral weight, and are working to advance diplomacy over confrontation—particularly between Iran and the United States at this critical moment. This alliance is likely to remain a significant factor in shaping the region’s future trajectory.
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