What he declares one day is the complete opposite of what he insisted on the day before. For example, he threatened Iran with “death, fire, and fury” if it refused to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, only to extend the deadline for five days and then ten. Moreover, even as he issued such stark ultimatums, he claimed that negotiations were in progress.
Some political analysts maintain that Trump is pursuing a shrewd approach that entails the use of military force to bolster diplomatic leverage. They suggest that this is what Secretary of War Pete Hegseth meant by “negotiating with bombs”.
However, such interpretations of Trump’s policies project a method and a logic that do not exist. The facts tell another story. Iran has categorically denied the existence of any negotiations with the US, and it has not paused its volleys of missiles at strategic targets in Israel. This undermines the claim that there is anything rational about Trump’s contradictions. It also puts paid to the notion that the use of force is intended to bring Iran to the negotiating table. In fact, negotiations were already underway before the war and the two sides had reached many points of agreement. But even as negotiations were in progress, Trump surprised Iran with the unprovoked assault while Israel targeted the Iranian negotiator, Ali Larijani.
So what is the real reason for the US president’s swings between things and their opposites? It is easier to see than one might imagine. You only need to look at the US financial markets, rather than the negotiating table. With every escalation of the war against Iran, the New York Stock Exchange will plunge dramatically, while with every announcement suggesting de-escalation and the existence of negotiations, the market will recover and stock values will rise again.
So were Trump’s lies about negotiations with Iran deliberate? Were they about manipulating privileged information to increase his personal wealth and that of his billionaire friends by controlling the rise and fall in the value of the assets they owned or traded in?
* A version of this article appears in print in the 2 April, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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