Pakistan’s conundrums

Haitham Nouri , Tuesday 31 Mar 2026

Bearing the brunt of the war, Pakistan is intensifying mediation efforts.

Pakistan’s conundrums

 

The foreign ministers of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey converged in Pakistan on Sunday to address the repercussions of the US-Israel-Iran war, with several regional media reports describing Islamabad as a leading broker in mediation efforts.

In fact, Pakistan has compelling reasons to try to bring the war to an end. For decades, it has maintained balanced relations with Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the US. Iran was the first country to recognise an independent Pakistan, a gesture reciprocated by Islamabad when it became the first to recognise the Islamic republic in 1979. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have, for decades, been among Islamabad’s main economic supporters.

The reason for this balance is Pakistan’s demographic composition, with its distribution between Sunni and Shia communities, which has encouraged the country to maintain neutrality in the rivalry between Riyadh and Tehran for more than four decades. But which side is Islamabad leaning towards? Is it Saudi Arabia, with which it signed a strategic agreement a few months ago, according to Pakistani officials, providing Riyadh with a nuclear umbrella upon request? Or is it Iran, following fire exchanges along their shared border of 900 km?

The Balochistan region, located in both Iran and Pakistan, poses an issue for the two countries. Baloch groups have been demanding independence from both Islamabad and Tehran, creating a shared interest in suppressing separatist movements in Balochistan. While Pakistan harbours concerns regarding US and Israeli policies that support groups seeking independence from Tehran’s authority, such as the Baloch, it wants to establish closer relations with the US to outpace its traditional rival, India.

India’s Hindu nationalist government, led by Narendra Modi, has strong ties with Israel’s religious right-wing government, and Hindu nationalists view this relationship as a pathway to closer ties with Washington. In the meantime, tensions between India and Pakistan remain high, particularly following clashes along their shared border in April 2025. Regarding the US-Israel war on Iran, Islamabad has reached an understanding with Tehran to allow vessels flying the Pakistani flag to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting some states to rely on Islamabad to facilitate the transit of essential oil shipments.

Pakistan is also mediating between the warring countries in an attempt to preserve its pro-US positioning, shaped during the war on terror in the 2000s, as Islamabad tends to believe that it is witnessing its final conflict against the Taliban, the extremist movement currently governing Afghanistan. The war between neighbouring Pakistan and Afghanistan began on 27 February, one day before the flareup of the US-Israel-Iran war, which has driven up global oil and natural gas prices, affecting world economies. This has concentrated attention on the Strait of Hormuz, with the focus being restoring international shipping to normal. Consequently, other conflicts have gone out of focus, thereby delaying their resolution and hindering the mobilisation of international humanitarian efforts to assist those affected.

Within ten days of the outbreak of war against Iran, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced stringent measures to confront rising global energy prices. “Difficult decisions have been taken to preserve economic stability,” Sharif said, noting that Pakistan imports the majority of its fuel needs and relies on oil and gas supplies from the Arabian Gulf. He also announced the closure of schools for two weeks and the transition of universities to remote learning to reduce movement. In addition, Pakistan reduced fuel allocations for official vehicles by 50 per cent and suspended the operation of 60 per cent of government service vehicles, with the exception of public buses and ambulances.

Public expenditure was cut by 20 per cent, alongside restrictions on the purchase of air-conditioning units and furniture, and the limitation of official travel to the bare minimum. Pakistan also raised fuel prices by 55 rupees ($0.2) per litre for petrol and diesel, nodding to one of the steepest rises in long years. The State Bank of Pakistan maintained the interest rate at 10.5 per cent, while uncertainty over inflation persists, as Pakistan’s heavy dependence on energy imports from the Gulf heightens the risk of inflationary pressures, a challenge shared by almost all Asian economies.

Islamabad relies heavily on remittances from nationals working in the Gulf. The Pakistani media estimates that about a million nationals work in the Gulf, sending remittances of billions of dollars annually. Pakistani schools in the Gulf face additional challenges, as final examinations in South Asian countries, including India, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka are traditionally held in March, but they have now been postponed in the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Iran. Students have been granted the option to sit their exams in Pakistan in accordance with procedures set by the federal board of secondary education, placing an added logistical burden on the authorities in Islamabad. Hence, Pakistan feels it has to play a part in stopping the war, driven by its pressing needs in energy, daily life and education.

 


* A version of this article appears in print in the 2 April, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly.

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