Aside from Trump’s unpredictability, there are obvious conclusions to be made 40 days into relentless American-Israeli war. The US president has threatened to unleash hell against Iran, destroying every bridge and single power plant in the country within four hours, and bringing a proud nation of 93 million back to “the Stone Age”, disregarding warnings that this would amount to war crimes. And it is true that US military capabilities are vastly superior to Iran’s. Iran has no air defence system or air force that can stand up to non-stop US and Israeli air strikes. Still, the dramatic developments of the past six weeks proved that, despite its limited capabilities, Iran cause much harm to the regional and world economy.
The universally condemned targeting of oil and gas facilities, and of ports, refineries and civilian buildings in nearby Arab Gulf nations does not require US-made F-35s or advanced F-15s, like the one the Iranians shot down with a shoulder-to-air missile over the weekend. Iran needs only short-range missiles and cheap drones to wreak havoc on the Gulf, targeting the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman.
Iran has also closed down the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than 20 per cent of the world’s oil and gas and a third of the world’s fertiliser pass, and even Trump admitted in a press conference on Monday that Tehran does not need a navy or advanced weapons to keep it choked. Word that Iran has mined the crucial naval passage, or a lone man driving a speedboat laden with explosives would be more than enough to keep owners of huge oil and gas tankers worth billions of dollars unwilling to go through, he said.
While the press conference was full of threats of what the US would do to Iran, what was missing was an honest assessment of the expected Iranian retaliation and how this would only leave the whole situation out of control for many years to come. After an astonishing post on his privately-owned social media platform, Truth Social, in which he used profane language to threaten Iran, the expected response from Tehran was a statement vowing retaliatory operations that would be “carried out much more crushingly and extensively”.
Moreover, what has taken place since the war started on 28 February proved that the Iranian regime is no closer to submission or “total surrender”, the condition Trump once declared for stopping the war. It would also be naïve, to expect the Iranian people to rush to the streets to demand the removal of their regime while they see their country being destroyed, adding to tremendous economic difficulties they have already been suffering for many years.
Trump claimed on Monday that some Iranians were allegedly asking him to keep on bombing their country in order to be rid of the regime. Yet he would not dare to name a single Iranian who made such a call simply because that would be the end of the figure or faction that celebrates the death of their own people and the destruction of vital infrastructure belonging to all Iranians, not to the government.
Egypt, for its part, has not given up hope that there could be light at the end of the tunnel, despite the many great difficulties. On Saturday alone, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty carried out 11 phone calls with counterparts from all six Arab Gulf countries, plus Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, the International Atomic Energy Agency and the US Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff, amid intense efforts to mediate an agreement to stop the war. Similar contacts were being carried out daily with all concerned parties.
Abdelatty warned that escalating tensions risks triggering an “unprecedented regional explosion” with severe economic and geopolitical consequences. He reiterated Egypt’s opposition to targeting civilian infrastructure, and emphasised Cairo’s condemnation of Iran’s attacks on the brotherly Gulf states, Jordan and Iraq. He called for respect for the sovereignty of those countries and an immediate halt to violations, describing them as clear breaches of international law and the United Nations (UN) Charter. While Egypt’s efforts centred on bringing the war to an end, top officials have also emphasised the need for continued coordination to mitigate risks to food and energy security, which is fast becoming a pressing issue for many emerging and fragile economies all over the world, especially in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.
The diplomatic push is part of a broader effort by Egypt to coordinate with regional partners, including Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, to advance de-escalation proposals and prevent the conflict from spreading. Officials from those countries have also held parallel discussions in Islamabad aimed at aligning positions, as part of a wider set of diplomatic initiatives that include coordination with China. Reports on talks between Iran and Oman to facilitate passage through the Strait of Hormuz and the limited increase in the number of oil tankers and ships navigating it, could also be encouraging news and a reflection of ongoing efforts to find a near end for this war.
Even if this extremely difficult goal is achieved, the world will certainly need a long time to overcome the scars of a conflict in which there are no winners so far. Experts expect disruptions in the oil market to continue even after the war ends, since the damage inflicted will need years to fix. Eight members of OPEC Plus, the oil producing consortium, who met this week, warned that “restoring damaged energy assets to full capacity is both costly and takes a long time.”
As António Costa, president of the European Council, noted in recent statements, threats of “escalation will not achieve a ceasefire and peace,” and will only make matters worse for the region and the world. Therefore, this is the right time to make honest assessments based on the experience of the past 40 days, and to stop boasting of military capabilities and the ability to instantly set fire to the region.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 9 April, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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