As the US started its naval blockade of Iranian ports this week, Pakistani mediators were intensifying calls to arrange for a second round of US-Iranian negotiations that could convene in Islamabad.
“It could happen in the coming days,” said a Pakistani official on Tuesday morning. “It is not yet confirmed, but we are working very hard on it,” he added.
The objective of the second round of the negotiations, he explained, is to build on the understandings that were made during the first round of talks that convened in Islamabad during three rounds of negotiations last Friday and Saturday.
The source said that the next round might also be inconclusive in terms of bridging the gaps between the US and Iran, but it could lead to an extension of the ceasefire reached on 8 April that was reached after Pakistani mediation supported by the other three members of the new regional quartet, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.
Two Egyptian sources and one Turkish source agreed that there is a good chance for the ceasefire to be extended after its current 22 April deadline by a week or two.
“It depends on how the preparations for the second round of the negotiations happen and how the second round itself unfolds,” said one of the Egyptian sources.
The Pakistani, Egyptian, and Turkish sources agreed on calling the nuclear part of the deal the most difficult challenge for the negotiators, given that the two sides stand far apart on the matter, with the Americans, and also the Israelis, insisting that Iran should be practically stripped off its nuclear programme, while Iran is not set to agree to this condition.
None of the five sources, however, agreed to qualify the discrepancies on the Iranian nuclear programme as the ultimate deal-breaker. They all agreed that what is at stake is the mutual perceptions of the Americans and Iranians.
In the words of the Turkish source, “the Iranians believe, and rightly so, that they have demonstrated a level of resilience that neither the US nor Israel had expected.”
He added that “the Americans, and rightly so, believe that they have inflicted huge damage on Iran’s military and economy and that they have caused Iran a huge political setback in its relations with its Arab neighbours who have been subject to strikes during the war.”
Throughout the 40-day war that the US and Israel started against Iran on 28 February, Iran targeted military and civilian installations in all six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, claiming that its targets were either US bases in the Arab countries or facilities hosting or providing services to the American military or economic interests in the region.
However, the sources agreed that it was the Iranian constraints imposed on the traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz that falls between Iran and Oman that dealt the worst blow to the Gulf economies whose oil imports mostly go through the strait, along with essential imports.
Two Gulf-based sources said that Iran has shown considerable flexibility in allowing the passage of ships carrying the flag of Oman, the country that was mediating to avert the war earlier this year.
However, they agreed that this conditional tolerance does not amount to much.
The US-Israeli war on Iran has started a global energy crisis that seems, in the words of even the most optimistic economists and energy experts, unsurmountable before weeks, or months, have passed, even after the conflict comes to an end.
“This is the crucial question today: will the conflict come to an end, or will it evolve into one of those protracted and hard-to-resolve conflicts,” commented one of the Egyptian sources.
He added that things could go either way. “Much depends on how the current standoff over the Strait of Hormuz will be managed,” he added.
According to the sources, there is a good chance that the US imposition of the blockade is designed to speed up chances for a deal.
According to the Turkish source, if the US and Iran manage to avert any direct military confrontation before the second round of the talks, then there is a good chance to move towards a partial deal that could end the US maritime blockade, terminate attacks from Iran against its Arab neighbours, allow for a partial release of some of the frozen Iranian assets, and extend the ceasefire.
“The rest, including the nuclear deal, could be subject to further negotiations,” he added.
However, according to the Pakistani source, it is not clear whether the US and Iran are comfortable pursuing this gradualist approach, logical as it might appear for an exit strategy out of the crisis.
“It is quite complicated because the Iranians have no faith in the US. They say that the negotiations were moving forward very well before the war started,” he said. For its part, he added, Washington is also determined to get a deal on the Iranian nuclear programme.
Statements coming out of Tehran and Washington following the weekend talks reflected the lack of confidence on both sides. However, they did not indicate any reluctance to move towards a deal.
According to the sources who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly, each side is fully aware that the failure to reach a deal will be costly. They also agreed that an understanding on the operation of the Strait of Hormuz would open the door for progress in the talks.
According to a Cairo-based European diplomat, leading regional and world capitals have tried to convince the US to refrain from implementing the blockade. The diplomat added that now the blockade is happening, these capitals are trying to offer a reconciliatory plan that could be acceptable to both sides.
“This crisis could have been averted if the negotiations had been given enough time, but now that we are in the middle of a global energy crisis, we need to find an exit soon,” the diplomat said.
According to an Atlantic Council paper that came out late last month, the Iran crisis has put Europe in a vulnerable position because “it must refill its depleted gas storage after high winter demand and increased exports to Ukraine.”
“As LNG [liquified natural gas] markets tighten, Europe will have to compete with China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan for purchases — risking either severe price shocks or potential energy shortages,” the paper added.
On Tuesday, the French presidency announced that French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will host a video conference with other European leaders to discuss an exit strategy on the Hormuz crisis.
According to Gulf-based sources, most of the Arab Gulf countries are also keen to see this conflict coming to an end sooner rather later, especially owing to the disturbing effects it has had not just on their economies but also on their food and water security.
The Arab Gulf countries import over 85 per cent of their total food consumption. They are also very dependent on water desalination, which provides over 70 per cent of potable water for most of the six members of the GCC.
According to a recently released US Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) paper, “the six Gulf states now count some 3,401 operational desalination plants, comprising 19 per cent of all desalination facilities worldwide.”
The paper noted that some of the desalination plants have been subject to strikes during the 40-day war.
Further hostilities, the paper noted, could prove critical for the Gulf countries’ water supplies, given that their desalination infrastructure “is susceptible to multiple vulnerabilities, from its energy and seawater supplies to its distribution networks and operating systems.”
According to the Cairo-based European source, “now everybody has a reason to want to end this crisis very soon and everyone is working to bring it to an end.”
Once a firm path of de-escalation is created, the diplomat said, then there could be ideas to manage all sorts of guarantees for the global energy market, the water supplies for the Gulf, and the security of the Middle East, including of key trade passages like the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab Al-Mandab.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 16 April, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly.
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