Dabla made her remarks in response to an Ahram Online question, asked during a hybrid press briefing to release its flagship Fiscal Monitor report, on the Fund’s projections for the country’s debt amid the severe implications of the regional conflict in the Middle East.
The release of the report comes on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings, which kicked off this week.
Dabla also told Ahram Online that while Egypt’s financing needs remain large, public debt is projected to decline over the medium term. However, the current environment, marked by higher fuel import bills due to the Middle East war, adds pressure on public finances.
“As an energy importer, Egypt is now facing higher fuel and import costs and tighter global financial conditions,” she said, warning that this increases debt risks given the already high debt levels.
Despite these challenges, Dabla said the economic impact of the war on Egypt has so far been contained, supported by “decisive and coordinated” government action.
She stressed that sustained fiscal reforms remain critical, including strengthening debt management, mobilising revenues efficiently, and reducing the state’s footprint in the economy.
Egypt is engaged in an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) loan programme that is scheduled to conclude by mid-December 2026. The total loan amount is $8 billion, with two remaining reviews to be discussed.
An Egyptian high-level delegation is participating in the Spring Meetings.
Uneven fiscal impact across the region
Meanwhile, Davide Furceri, Division Chief at the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, said the fiscal impact of the crisis is expected to vary widely across countries, depending on whether they are oil exporters or importers.
Private debt is projected to rise globally to around 54 percent of GDP by the end of the forecast horizon, exceeding pre-COVID levels, he added.
For oil-exporting countries, Furceri explained that the fiscal impact will depend on two opposing forces: higher oil prices, which support revenues, and disruptions to production and exports, which reduce them.
“The net effect will depend on the strength of these channels,” he said, noting that some countries, such as Oman, could see improved fiscal space, while others, like Iran, may face declines.
For oil-importing countries, including many in the region, the outlook is more challenging. Lower economic activity and weaker consumption are expected to weigh on revenues, while government spending pressures rise.
Furceri added that energy subsidies in many countries limit the pass-through of higher global prices to consumers but increase fiscal costs, further straining public finances.
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