The need to end a war that has been ravaging the region and the world for two months is felt more strongly than ever. While expectations are low, except for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the whole world agrees that continuing this war will produce nothing but human suffering and economic pain.
Predicting the outcome has proved difficult, mainly because of the negotiating style of US President Donald Trump, swinging in endless posts on social media and in public statements between “a deal is very close” and renewed threats to bomb every single bridge and power plant in Iran if no deal is reached. It doesn’t make it easier that Trump will take aggressive action to pressure Iran while negotiating, blocking its ports and preventing its oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, while expecting Tehran to remain committed to opening the vital navigation lane for the rest of the world. Yet the minimum outcome that the world aspires to is an extension of the shaky ceasefire that expired on Wednesday, to make room for more negotiations.
World markets reacted very positively when Iran’s foreign minister announced on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz was open and free, with oil prices dropping more than 10 per cent and stock markets recovering most of their losses since the US-Israeli war against Iran broke out on 28 February. However, such optimism quickly evaporated following Trump’s declaration on imposing a siege on Iranian ports, and even seizing an Iranian oil tanker, which led Tehran to reverse its decision and announce that Hormuz has been closed again less than 24 hours later.
While Trump has accused Iran of using the Strait of Hormuz to leverage concessions in talks over its nuclear programme, the United States acting like the de facto party in control of the strait by displaying its military power does not help effort to keep it open in order to ease the pressure on the world economy. While both the United States and Iran have a long list of demands to agree to permanently end the war, the nuclear programme, missile capabilities, support for regional proxies, Tehran’s demand for US war repatriations and the withdrawal of US troops from the Gulf, perhaps both sides could agree as a first step to restore the opening of the Strait of Hormuz for world shipping while negotiating.
International financial institutions and economic experts agree that the effects of the US-Israeli war on Iran will last for years to come. Oil prices are unlikely to fall immediately in the case of an agreement to end the war. Repairing the damages to oil and gas installations hit by Iranian missiles during the war will cost billions and take years. The continuation of the blockage of Hormuz has already resulted in shortages in vital commodities worldwide, topped with fertilizer, and a spike in shipping costs which translates into increases in the prices of all goods.
While Trump continues to deny that he is under pressure to end the war, realities on the ground prove otherwise. The war is increasingly unpopular within the United States, including among his own Republican and MAGA (Make America Great Again) base. Americans can see for themselves how they are being dragged into a war that did not serve US interests, and only caused pain at home with repeated increases in gas prices at the pump.
Moreover, going back to fighting is clearly unlikely to change the outcome of the war. With its military superiority, the United States can certainly resort again to large-scale bombing of Iranian targets, including civilian ones cited in Trump’s threats such as bridge, power stations, even oil fields. Yet, despite the lack of effective air defences or an air force, Iran has demonstrated its ability to cause massive damage to the world economy by targeting oil and gas installations and US military bases spread all over the Gulf.
Geography also plays into the hands of Iranians, allowing them to use the Strait of Hormuz as a pressure card that did not exist in previous rounds of negotiations with the United States. While the United States is now demanding the immediate reopening of the strait, it cannot be denied that this vital navigation route was open and free before the war started. Ironically, it was the continuation of the war over 40 days that led the Iranians to contemplate going as far as requesting passage fees from ships and tankers sailing through Hormuz, which had never happened before the war.
Another theory that Netanyahu successfully sold to Trump on the expected speedy collapse of the Iranian regime as soon as US and Israeli bombs start dropping on Tehran has also proved terribly wrong. On the contrary, shocking threats by Trump of imminent destruction and the end of Iran’s civilisation within hours actually backfired, and more Iranians rallied behind the regime to defend their country.
If there is anything positive that happened this week, it is setting the record straight on who is running the show in the ongoing US-Israeli war against Iran after Trump issued clear instructions to Netanyahu that he must stop his aggression against Lebanon. Trump said that Netanyahu was “prohibited” from bombing Lebanon and should stick to yet another shaky ceasefire between the two countries that expires on Sunday.
Hopefully this is the beginning of recognition by Trump of the urgent need to restore peace and stability in the region, restraining his closest ally from starting endless wars while chasing illusions of superiority and hegemony over the region. This region will have to cope with the consequences of the US-Israeli war on Iran for years to come, and the US needs to cooperate with its close Arab allies to restore stability instead of being dragged into needless wars.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 23 April, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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