In The Triangle of Power: Rebalancing the New World Order, he writes not as a distant observer but as a practitioner who has operated inside the machinery of global politics at moments of acute crisis.
His career spans the European Union, national leadership, and high-level diplomacy, placing him in direct contact with the very forces he seeks to interpret. This dual identity—scholar and statesman—gives the book both authority and urgency. It is not a theoretical meditation on power; it is an attempt to make sense of a system that is visibly unraveling.
That sense of urgency is reinforced by Stubb’s current diplomatic engagement in Egypt, which comes at a time when the Middle East and the Arab Gulf are experiencing one of the most dangerous phases in their modern history.
His visit to Cairo is not a routine diplomatic stop but part of a broader recalibration in Western strategic thinking. Egypt today is not merely a regional actor; it is a pivotal node in the evolving global order, linking Africa, the Arab world, and the Mediterranean.
Meetings with Egyptian leadership have focused on regional security, economic resilience, and the future of international cooperation, particularly in a context defined by the war in Gaza, instability in the Red Sea, and mounting pressures across the Gulf. In engaging Cairo, Stubb is effectively putting into practice the central argument of his book: that the emerging world cannot be governed through Western frameworks alone, and that engagement with influential states of the Global South is no longer optional but essential.
From its opening chapters, The Triangle of Power advances a bold and unsettling thesis. The liberal international order—constructed in the aftermath of World War II and consolidated after the Cold War—has entered a phase of structural decline. The assumption that this order would expand and eventually universalize has proven false. Instead, the world has moved toward fragmentation, competition, and uncertainty. The institutions that once mediated conflict and facilitated cooperation have not disappeared, but they have lost their capacity to shape outcomes in the way they once did.
Stubb’s analysis of this decline is both nuanced and unsparing. He does not attribute the collapse of the order to external challengers alone. Instead, he places significant responsibility on the West itself. The optimism of the 1990s, when liberal democracy appeared to be the final stage of political evolution, created a dangerous complacency. Western powers assumed that globalization would naturally align interests, that economic interdependence would prevent conflict, and that the appeal of liberal values would prove irresistible. These assumptions led to a series of strategic miscalculations.
The first of these miscalculations was the failure to share power within global institutions. While the West expanded organizations such as NATO and the European Union, it did not fundamentally reform the structures of global governance to reflect the rising influence of non-Western states. The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and even the United Nations retained power distributions that reflected an earlier era. This created a growing sense of exclusion among emerging powers, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
The second miscalculation was the selective application of principles. The West presented itself as the guardian of a rules-based order, yet it often acted outside those rules when it suited its interests. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, undertaken with varying degrees of international support, exposed this contradiction. These interventions not only destabilized entire regions but also undermined the credibility of the system they were meant to defend. The result was a loss of trust that has yet to be repaired.
Stubb’s narrative gains particular force when he shifts from structural analysis to personal experience. His account of the early days of the Ukraine war, including his attempt to engage Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, captures the moment when diplomatic communication itself began to break down. The exchange is revealing not because it resolves anything, but because it demonstrates the depth of the divide between competing worldviews.  What emerges is a picture of a system in which shared assumptions no longer exist, where even the language of diplomacy has become contested.
The Ukraine war, in Stubb’s interpretation, is not simply another geopolitical conflict. It is a defining moment that signals the end of the post-Cold War era. It forces states to take positions, exposes the limitations of existing institutions, and accelerates the transition toward a new configuration of power. It is, in many ways, the event that makes the transformation of the international system undeniable.
At the heart of Stubb’s framework is the concept of the “triangle of power,” a model that seeks to capture the emerging structure of global politics. This triangle consists of three broad groupings: the Global West, the Global East, and the Global South. Each of these components represents not only a set of states but also a distinct approach to power, governance, and international relations.
The Global West, led by the United States and Europe, remains a formidable economic and institutional force. It continues to dominate key international organizations and retains significant technological advantages. Yet it is also facing internal challenges, including political polarization, economic inequality, and a growing skepticism toward globalization. These internal dynamics weaken its ability to project coherence and leadership.
The Global East, anchored by China and supported by Russia and other authoritarian regimes, presents an alternative model. It emphasizes sovereignty, state control, and a more transactional approach to international relations. China’s rise, in particular, represents one of the most significant shifts in global power in recent history. Its economic expansion, technological advancement, and strategic investments have reshaped global networks of influence.
Between these two poles lies the Global South—a diverse and increasingly assertive set of states that refuse to be reduced to passive actors. This is where Stubb’s analysis becomes particularly relevant for readers in the Middle East and the Arab Gulf. The region is not simply a battleground for great-power competition; it is a central component of the emerging order. States such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates are actively shaping outcomes, leveraging their strategic positions to engage with multiple partners simultaneously.
In the Gulf, this dynamic is especially pronounced. The region sits at the intersection of global energy markets, maritime security routes, and financial flows. It is both a source of stability and a potential flashpoint. The ongoing tensions in the Red Sea, the implications of the war in Gaza, and the broader confrontation between regional and external powers create an environment in which the balance between competition and conflict is constantly at risk. Stubb’s framework helps to make sense of this complexity, highlighting the ways in which regional actors navigate a shifting landscape.
One of the book’s most significant contributions is its distinction between multilateralism and multipolarity. Multilateralism, in Stubb’s view, is a system based on shared rules and institutions that constrain power and enable cooperation. Multipolarity, by contrast, is a system in which multiple centers of power compete without necessarily adhering to common rules. The danger is that the world is moving toward multipolarity without the safeguards that might make it stable.
This distinction is illustrated through the historical contrast between Yalta and Helsinki. Yalta represents a system in which great powers divide the world into spheres of influence, making decisions over the heads of smaller states. Helsinki, by contrast, embodies a more inclusive approach, grounded in principles and participation. The relevance of this contrast is evident in the current trajectory of the Middle East, where great-power competition increasingly intersects with regional ambitions, creating a complex web of alliances and rivalries.
The dynamics that shape this triangle—competition, conflict, and cooperation—are deeply interconnected. Competition is inevitable and often beneficial, driving innovation and economic growth. However, in a world where economic tools, technological platforms, and even information can be weaponized, competition can easily escalate into conflict. The Middle East provides a clear illustration of this risk, where economic pressures, security concerns, and political rivalries intersect in ways that can rapidly destabilize the region.
Cooperation, therefore, becomes both more necessary and more difficult. Stubb is realistic about the challenges. The erosion of trust, the weakening of institutions, and the divergence of interests all complicate efforts to build consensus. Yet the global challenges facing humanity—climate change, technological disruption, demographic shifts—cannot be addressed without cooperation. This creates a fundamental tension at the heart of the international system.
In response to this tension, Stubb proposes the concept of “values-based realism.” This approach seeks to reconcile the commitment to universal values with the realities of a diverse and contested world. It calls for engagement with states that do not share Western norms, while maintaining a commitment to fundamental principles. It is an attempt to move beyond the rigid dichotomies that have long shaped foreign policy debates.
The strength of this concept lies in its recognition of complexity. It acknowledges that the world cannot be divided neatly into allies and adversaries, that engagement requires flexibility, and that influence depends as much on understanding as on power. At the same time, it raises important questions about consistency and credibility. Balancing values and interests is inherently difficult, particularly in regions where strategic imperatives often dominate.
Despite these challenges, The Triangle of Power succeeds in providing a compelling framework for understanding a world in transition. It does not offer simple solutions, but it clarifies the stakes. The future of the international system will be determined by how states navigate the interplay of competition, conflict, and cooperation within this emerging triangle.
For readers in Egypt and across the Arab world, the implications are profound. The region is no longer peripheral to global politics; it is central to it. Its choices will shape not only its own future but the trajectory of the international system as a whole. In a moment defined by uncertainty and risk, Stubb’s analysis offers both a warning and a call to action. The world is not merely changing. It is being remade.
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