The eruption that began in Syria with the overthrow of the Bashar Al-Assad regime on 8 December 2024 marked the crest a wave raised by the so-called Arab Spring a decade and a half ago.
It simultaneously represented a culmination in a series of regional developments set into motion by the Al-Aqsa Flood on 7 October 2023 and subsequent “epic fury” that continues to rage across the region. Amid the death, destruction and turmoil, the region fell into the crosshairs of world powers (primarily the US) and non-Arab regional powers (Israel, Iran and Turkey) bent on implementing schemes to engineer the Middle East in ways that serve their strategic objectives.
This grim reality calls for serious thought on an Arab regional project informed by both individual and collective national interests of Arab countries. Contemporary history vividly shows that externally imposed projects invariably produce significant levels of violence in the form of war and terrorism. Therefore, Arab states – specifically, those that have developed a mature understanding of the nation-state – must advance an Arab-driven project capable of rescuing the region from its current plight and setting it on the path to reform, stability and peace, thereby enabling it to join the ranks of the developed world.
At the same time, the prevailing uncertainty must not blind us to the negative dimension of shifting geopolitical and geostrategic realities. The Arab world itself has changed since the Arab Spring. The situation as it stood until the second decade of this century is no longer commensurate with the demands of the present era. Therefore, as the tempestuous Spring winds tore across several Arab states, a significant number of other Arab countries took the bull by its horns, launching bold initiatives aimed at reforming ideologically distorted sociopolitical conditions that were unsuited to the modern age.
The emergent Arab reform project rests on three principles, the first being the need to foster a national identity embodied in a state for all citizens, as opposed to a state dominated by a ruthless minority or a tyrannical majority. By definition, this state must monopolise political legitimacy and the legitimate use of force. The second principle is the pursuit of modernity across national territory, which requires extending development across national territory through large-scale projects to create modern communications systems and transportation networks. It also requires mobilising untapped national resources. The third principle is participation in the modern age to which we aspire, an age that engages large swathes of the youth and great levels of knowledge.
Despite the negative record of Arab regional projects, a new one is of vital importance. As noted above, the projects of parties outside the Arab region are threatening the national security of Arab states, individually and collectively, exacting a heavy toll in blood and tears. However, a collective Arab project cannot be driven by security-related concerns stemming from regional and global threats alone; it must also respond to economic needs. The Arab states that have chosen the path of the forward-looking, progress-oriented, modern nation-state need large markets. Security and progress are the twin objectives in the search for an Arab project. Such a project, moreover, would spur everyone who possesses the will, ability and national interest in drawing closer to other Arabs sharing the same motivation.
Two types of Arab states have emerged over the past two years, which have been marked by the Gaza war and its repercussions in a region already scarred by the outcome of the Arab Spring. The first type consists of states torn by war and strife between sects, creeds, and tribes; the second comprises states dedicated to construction, development and national unity, and the aspiration to compete effectively in the contemporary world. The first type breeds instability that spreads its pernicious effects across the entire Arab region, while the second requires extensive markets to accommodate its growing economic capacities. The latter category includes the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia.
This group remains open to any state that accepts the fundamentals of the nation-state and seeks to catch up with the contemporary world. Over the past decade, those countries have achieved considerable progress in strengthening their identities, territorial integration, engaging their youth and mobilising their resources. However, they cannot afford to disregard the negative shifts in the current geopolitical and geostrategic environment, as they strive to transform their realities to meet the demands of the age.
No Arab project in modern history is worthy of its name unless it addresses three crucial issues. First, how can this regional project contribute to furthering the national identities of other Arab states and achieving unity of arms? Secondly, how can it engage with neighbouring states within frameworks of cooperation, peace, and security so as to achieve lasting regional stability? Third, how can it contribute to the Palestinian cause and to resolving the Israeli question – the two defining issues of modern Arab history – on the basis of a two-state solution?
No Arab state can address these issues on its own. What is needed is a strong, robust and dynamic Arab order.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 30 April, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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