That would be an embarrassment for the embattled prime minister facing elections in a few months, especially as none of his declared war goals against Iran have been achieved.
The escalation of Israel’s aggressions against Lebanon this week, in total breach of the US-sponsored ceasefire established in mid-April, and threatening to strike the capital Beirut again, leaves us in no doubt that Netanyahu continues to work hard to fail regional and international diplomatic efforts to gradually restore stability in the ill-fated region.
After Iran and the US agreed to a shaky ceasefire on 7 April, the Israeli premier vehemently rejected any link between the Iranian and Lebanese fronts, continuing the attack on Lebanon for 10 days until US President Donald Trump posted a clear order to his subordinate in war on 17 April: “Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough.”
Yet Israel’s record in honouring any of the ceasefires or even peace agreements it signs is exactly nil, and no wars are enough for its sense of security. In Lebanon, as in occupied Gaza, Netanyahu not only declared that he would continue to carry out attacks against targets he deemed a threat to Israel’s security, but also insisted that he would not pull out Israeli occupation troops from the large areas it now occupies in south Lebanon after the latest round of fighting broke out on 2 March. That was taking place at the same time US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted delegations from Lebanon and Israel in Washington for unprecedented peace talks.
As expected, Washington has reacted leniently to Israel’s violations of the ceasefire in Lebanon, reportedly setting attacks against the capital, Beirut, as the only red line for its ally in the war against Iran. Officials in Washington told Israel attacks against Beirut would complicate negotiations with Iran, which insisted that a ceasefire should extend to all fronts and allies involved in the war, topped with Lebanon and Hizbullah.
As negotiations between Iran and the US continued to drag on, defying announcements by Trump that a deal was within reach and normal traffic would soon resume at the vital Strait of Hormuz, it seems that the White House has decided to adopt a different strategy. Considering that Netanyahu starts each declaration of a new attack or assassination his army carries out by noting that this took place “in coordination with Washington” or after informing the White House, it is rather hard to imagine that the latest Israeli escalation in both Lebanon and Gaza does not have the US approval.
It cannot be a coincidence that at the same time the Israeli army was expanding its occupation of Lebanese territory in the south, going beyond the Litani River, which marks the undeclared border of south Lebanon, Netanyahu started a new round of military attacks against Gaza and declared that he planned to expand the area Israel’s army occupies in the Strip from 60 to 70 per cent. Iranian reports pointed out that the US sought to put pressure on Tehran to accept Trump’s terms for a deal by giving Israel permission to escalate attacks on both Lebanon and Gaza.
At one point in the complicated US-Iranian talks, the trade-off was that Iran would compromise on its nuclear programme or the re-opening of Hormuz in order to obtain US concessions on its demands to unfreeze Iranian assets kept by Washington and to end sanctions. However, it seems the bargain right now is that if Iran does not accept the US demands for a deal, Washington will encourage Israel to escalate its attacks against Lebanon and Hizbullah, as well as Hamas and Palestinians in Gaza. Many of Iran’s critics in Lebanon have been quick to point out that Iran stood still while Israel continued to kill and displace the Lebanese people, despite its close alliance with Hizbullah. However, Tehran insisted that it would not agree to any deal with Washington that does not include a ceasefire in Lebanon and the withdrawal of Israeli occupation troops.
Feeling the pressure from its own hardliners as well as its adversaries, Iran’s military declared on Monday that if Israel insisted on breaching the ceasefire in Lebanon, and bombed the capital Beirut and the Hizbullah stronghold known as Al-Dahya Al-Janoubia, it would issue a warning to residents of northern Israeli settlements to evacuate in preparation for Iranian retaliation. If such a scenario took place it would be the official declaration of the return to an all-out regional war, and the fulfillment of Netanyahu’s wishes to resume attacks against Iran. The Israeli prime minister claims that there remain scores of targets that were missed in the first round of fighting that lasted 40 days, starting 28 February, and that toppling Iran’s regime, his illusory aim, can still be achieved.
Unfortunately, only a fool repeats the same mistake twice expecting different results. The first round of fighting, which practically continues to this day, has only caused massive suffering and economic loss on both the regional and world levels. The Arab Gulf nations that once prided themselves on being beacons of oil wealth, stability and advanced technology have been attacked with missiles and drones. That is why Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE and Oman have been at the forefront of nations seeking to end the war, along with Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey. Instead of the negotiations between Iran and the US being limited to the nuclear programme, long-range missiles and regional proxies backed by Tehran, what is more, the Iranians won a new “nuclear weapon” they never possessed before, which is controlling traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz where 20 per cent of the world’s oil, gas, and fertilisers passes.
Trump would be totally in error if he believed that giving Israel a free hand to kill civilians in Lebanon and Gaza will help improve his negotiating stand with Iran. Restraining Israel and helping Netanyahu seek treatment from his war addiction is the only path to restoring stability in a region that has witnessed nothing but wars for the past three years.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 4 June, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly.
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