Abul-Fotouh dips, Moussa holds steady in Ahram presidential poll

Ahram Online, Monday 14 May 2012

Mubarak-era minister Ahmed Shafiq gains slightly against renegade Islamist candidate Abul-Fotouh while Moussa maintains a healthy lead, latest Al-Ahram opinion poll finds

Moussa and Abul-Fotouh
Moussa and Abul-Fotouh

The latest weekly opinion poll by the Cairo-based Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies puts Mubarak-era foreign minister Amr Moussa at the head of Egypt's presidential race, garnering almost 41 per cent of the popular vote. This indicates a slight increase in Moussa's popularity since the previous poll – conducted from 28 April to 1 May – in which he received 39 per cent.

Ahmed Shafiq, Mubarak's last prime minister, jumped to second place in this week's survey, receiving almost 20 per cent – a 2-per cent increase on the last poll. Shafiq pushed former Muslim Brotherhood figure Abdel-Moneim Abul-Fotouh into third place with 17.8 per cent, down from 24 per cent in the previous poll.

The Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Morsi, meanwhile, maintained his fourth-place position with 9.4 per cent. Independent Nasserist candidate Hamdeen Sabbahi, for his part, came in fifth place, with 7 per cent.

The poll also found that the percentage of undecided voters had increased from 10.7 per cent in the last poll to 15.3 per cent currently, indicating an increased level of confusion and indecision among the voting public.

The latest poll included questions about possible runoff scenarios, with Moussa scoring considerably higher than Abul-Fotouh in a runoff vote, with 63.8 per cent for the former FM and 36.2 per cent for the renegade Islamist candidate.

Moussa scored even higher in a runoff scenario against the Brotherhood's Morsi, garnering 77.6 of the vote against 22.4 for Morsi. Moussa also secured 68 per cent of the runoff vote against Shafiq, who received 32 per cent.

In a runoff scenario between Abul-Fotouh and Shafiq, Abul-Fotouh picked up 52.9 per cent of the vote against 47.1 per cent for Shafiq. And in a runoff poll between Abul-Fotouh and the Brotherhood's Morsi, the former received 74.7 against 25.3 per cent for the latter.

The latest poll is the seventh to be conducted by the Al-Ahram centre since Egypt's first post-Mubarak presidential elections kicked off earlier this year.

Polls are conducted using a sample of 1,200 voters, all of whom are interviewed personally. The geographically representative sample excludes Egypt's sparsely-populated coastal governorates (such as North and South Sinai, Marsa Matrouh, Al-Wadi Al-Gadid and the Red Sea governorates), all of which combined represent less than two per cent of Egypt's overall population.

Egypt's first post-Mubarak presidential poll will be held on 23/24 May, with a runoff round on 16/17 June if no single candidate wins an outright majority. Egypt's next president will be formally named on 21 June.

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