This came during Okasha’s speech at the "Changing Equations of Conflict and Security in the Middle East" workshop hosted by the ECSS, a Cairo-based think tank, on Thursday.

Okasha warned that the current confrontation between Israel and Iran has intensified beyond mere strategic deterrence.

He added that this situation alongside the Israeli military operations expanding from Gaza into Lebanon raised the spectre of a full-scale war, particularly amid a lack of opportunities for de-escalation and Israel's unlimited support from Western allies.

Okasha also addressed the escalating Houthi activities in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, which he said reflect the deep, interconnected impact on the Middle East and the Horn of Africa.

He highlighted the growing significance of technology surfacing amid the current conflicts, particularly in cyber warfare, alongside worsening humanitarian conditions in conflict zones.

Okasha underscored the pervasive uncertainty that characterizes the current situation in the Middle East, warning that miscalculations could potentially plunge the Middle East into a major conflict with far-reaching repercussions.

“It is difficult to separate the current regional turmoil from the repercussions resulting from the Arab revolutions of 2011,” he added during the event.

Okasha said that increasing polarization and competition has “pushed towards disrupting the equation of security and stability in the Middle East.”

Israel’s comprehensive strategy
 

For his part, Mohamed Ibrahim Eldawiry, deputy director of the ECSS, said southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip are only components of a comprehensive Israeli strategy, which cannot be limited to the military aspect only.

He explained that this extensive Israeli initiative is being rolled out in phases, underpinned by critical factors, such as Israel’s endeavours to integrate into the regional system in the region in all fields, trying to find common denominators with the Arab countries.

Israel seeks to create a threat that shakes the Arab region as a whole, by focusing on Iran and intensifying mutual strikes with it and its arms in the region, he added.

Also, Israel is adopting a gradual and systematic approach to the Palestinian issue by creating a fait accompli that is difficult to deal with through measures, such as settlement and exploiting the Palestinian division, he continued.

Eldawiry predicts that this Israeli approach is likely to persist amid the strong consensus among Israeli political sectors backing this comprehensive strategy, firm American support for advancing Israel’s objectives in the region, and lack of regional opposition to normalization efforts with Israel.

Israel is currently trying to dismantle the Arab argument that unresolved Palestinian issues contribute to regional instability, Eldawiry added.

Israel aims to decouple the normalization process from the Palestinian cause, he noted. He added that while Israel is prepared to revitalize normalization efforts within the region, it is seeking to create a fait accompli in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Eldawiry said the Israeli approach does not bode well for the possibility of establishing a Palestinian state in the near future as it seeks to place the region between two angles: “no stability and no explosion.”

He called for a comprehensive Arab project to confront the comprehensive Israeli project in the coming period.

Israeli-Iranian confrontations
 

On Israeli-Iranian tensions, Nevine Mossaad, a political science professor at Cairo University, said the direct conflict between Iran and Israel is set to intensify, particularly with Iran's military arms in the region.

She expected a prolonged attrition between both sides, with a regular pace of conflict that does not reach the point of explosion but does not achieve stability.

Mossaad noted that a temporary de-escalation may occur, driven by the pressing need for both nations to reassess regional dynamics for stability.

However, she suggested that ongoing escalations remain a likely scenario, as both Israel and Iran possess strong motivations for continued conflict — Israel aims to reshape the Middle East landscape, while Iran seeks to uphold its political agenda rooted in Shi'ism.

Mossaad also highlighted Israel's broader Israeli ambitions in the Middle East, particularly its efforts to modify the buffer zone between the occupied Golan Heights and Syria.

She also pointed out that statements from former US President Donald Trump, in which he asserted that Israel's borders are no longer sufficient, should be taken seriously.

Such statements reveal the reality of the American Zionist project, she noted.

Mossaad warned that there are attempts to destabilize Arab nations, noting that the US involvement in the Israeli-Iranian conflict could shift attention back towards Iraq.

Meanwhile, she asserted that Egypt is striving to maintain a strategic balance in its regional relations amid the heightened tensions across its borders.

Sudan longstanding issue
 

On the Sudanese crisis, Ahmed Amal, assistant professor of political science at Cairo University's Faculty of African Graduate Studies, said that Sudan holds special significance, especially with the escalating chaos there.

Amal, also head of the African Studies Unit at the ECSS, noted that the current turmoil in Sudan cannot be reduced to the aftermath of the 2019 ousting of former president Omar Al-Bashir.

He noted that Sudan's state deterioration has been a long-standing issue since its independence in January 1956.

This included the 2011 secession of South Sudan, a protracted civil war, and the rise of various ethnic and internal conflicts, he explained.

Amal noted that the situation in Sudan has confirmed the inability of successive Sudanese governments to find a solution, leading many parties to exercise control on the ground.

He noted that the Rapid Support Forces, which, contrary to being a subordinate faction within the military, now boasts greater numbers and armament than the Sudanese army itself.

The transitional phase initiated in 2019 has been marked by unprecedented tensions, extending beyond the typical five-year timeline for political transitions witnessed in Africa, he added.

Amal warned that Sudan's situation could evolve through one of three troubling scenarios: the persistence of a failed state, a fragmented society, or division.

To avert these dire outcomes, he proposed critical paths including an urgent need to halt hostilities and cultivate a sense of legitimate governance through elections or local referendums.

Africa crises
 

Ambassador Zeid Alsabban, director of the Sudan and Horn of Africa Department at the Arab League (AL), emphasized that the current geopolitical landscape is increasingly dominated by economic interests that transcend traditional national and religious ideologies.

Alsabban spotlighted the complex motivations fueling ongoing conflicts in the region, asserting that these drivers extend beyond mere financial gain and trade.

He noted that international and regional interests frequently intersect, citing critical issues, such as the controversial Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project, competition for fertile agricultural land in Sudan, or disputes over mineral resources in the strategic corridor between Kenya and Somalia.

Egypt and the Arab countries contributed to strengthening the national state in Somalia through the military agreement to support the sovereignty and unity of the Somali territories, he noted.

He also warned of Ethiopia's ambitions, supported by various powers – not only Israel – to assert itself as a dominant force in the Horn of Africa.

The ambassador reiterated the AL’s crucial role in safeguarding the integrity of the Sudanese state and preventing the disintegration of the Somali state.

American-Israeli strategy
 

Mohamed Mujahid Al-Zayat, academic advisor to the Egyptian Centre for Strategic Studies (ECSS), described the ongoing conflict in the region as unprecedented in military history, highlighting the advancements in weapons and cyber warfare employed by Israel.

Al-Zayat noted that the Israeli military does not act in isolation, as it receives continuous external support from the world's five strongest armies.

He expressed concern over a "predefined American-Israeli strategic project," suggesting that this alignment will persist in the coming years.

Addressing the tensions between Israel and Iran, Al-Zayat clarified that Israel's objective is not to eliminate Iran but to curtail its influence, as Iran's presence serves as a means of regional intimidation.

Furthermore, Al-Zayat warned that the ongoing war could hinder the prospects for establishing a future Palestinian state — a long-standing goal for Israel.

He also warned of potential civil unrest in Lebanon, citing the movement of Hezbollah supporters from the south to the north as a precursor to possible clashes.

He also indicated a shift in Syria's stance, suggesting that the country is distancing itself from Hezbollah and Iran, a move he said is supported by Russia to avoid confrontation with Israel.

Al-Zayat dismissed reports of a purported naval manoeuvre between Iran and Egypt as false, asserting that such a collaboration is not feasible.

From globalization to regionalism
 

Mohamed Kamal, a member of the Advisory Board of the ECSS, noted a shift in focus back to the Middle East, particularly in light of recent crises, contrasting it with previous priorities on Asia.

He highlighted that, for a significant period, both Israel and the US sought to separate the Palestinian issue from broader regional concerns. However, it has become clear that there is a substantial connection between the Palestinian cause and other regional matters.

Kamel, also a political science professor at Cairo University, expressed that the current crisis reveals the fragile nature of the international system, which is faltering under a lack of adherence to established norms and moral failures from the West.

The decline of US leadership in the Middle East has created a vacuum not filled by other major powers, he said, adding that this situation necessitates a re-evaluation of the narrative surrounding a multipolar world.

He argued that it is more accurately described as a non-polar international system.

He pointed out a transition from globalization to regionalism, where different regions operate largely independently from major global powers, with regional players becoming more significant.

Kamel said Israel has a clear project, supported by the US, that aims to alter the structural framework of the region, specifically targeting Iranian influence and establishing new norms based on military strength and economic power among certain Arab nations.

Shipping lanes security
 

Dalal Mahmoud, ECSS executive director, provided critical insights into the complex dynamics surrounding the militarization of shipping lanes in the Middle East.

According to Mahmoud, this is not a new phenomenon as it traces back to the regional upheavals that began in 2003.

Currently, 10 out of the 39 most powerful military nations are active in the Middle East in the form of military bases, troop deployments, or military operations.

She underscored the strategic importance of navigational threats linked to key chokepoints in the region, such as the Straits of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, which rank as the second and third most critical straits globally.

Mahmoud also highlighted the intense international competition for influence in strategic regions, particularly concerning shipping lanes.

Meanwhile, she called for a collaborative effort between Egypt and Saudi Arabia to ensure the safety of the Red Sea, given their significant roles in regional affairs.

Additionally, she urged the initiation of strategic dialogues with the European Union and Arab nations to confront emerging security threats in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Al-Aqsa Flood impacts
 

Hoda Raouf, head of the Iranian Studies Unit at the ECSS, compared the Flood of Al-Aqsa events to the 11 September attacks, viewing them as pivotal moments in international politics that carry significant repercussions.

She discussed how the Flood of Al-Aqsa shifted the nature of the conflict between Israel and Iran, changing it from indirect confrontations to direct clashes, evidenced by exchanges of attacks on Israeli and Iranian soil.

Raouf noted that Iran, recognized for its strategic acumen, is leveraging this situation to establish new points of tension, such as by orchestrating attacks by the Houthis in the Red Sea, thereby creating pressure on regional allies and threatening Israeli interests.

She further indicated that the 7 October attack “prompted Israel to achieve a major objective — dismantling the Palestinian resistance axis and weakening its military and leadership capacities to eliminate threats to its security.”

Cyberwar!
 

Raghda Al-Bahy, head of Cyber Security Unit at the ECSS, noted that Israel and Hamas have employed technological and cyber dimensions in the war.

She highlighted that Hamas's use of technology has not resulted in any military advantage on the ground. In contrast, the Israeli side is utilizing various artificial intelligence applications within its military strategies.

Furthermore, she highlighted a collaboration among Israeli intelligence, the defence ministry, and universities to implement smart applications in the conflict against Gaza.

She noted the increasing reliance on cyber agents as a strategy of some nations to avoid blamefor attacks, a trend that is expected to grow in the future.

Al-Bahy concluded that neither the technological nor the cyber aspects would decisively resolve any conflicts, despite the severe losses they entail.

Towards stability
 

Alaa Al-Tamimi, director of Research and Strategic Studies Department at the AL, stressed the importance of reaching an Arab perspective for a stable and sustainable regional system.

He outlined eight challenges to achieving such stability, with the erosion of state sovereignty and the challenges of rebuilding centralized states being particularly significant.

According to Al-Tamimi, political settlements in crisis-stricken countries will not be solely internal affairs but will involve agreements with regional powers.

Additionally, he noted that some major countries play a crucial role in shaping the future of nation-states.

Al-Tamimi concluded that achieving stability relies on regional cooperation, strengthening multilateral diplomacy, enhancing economic integration, and establishing effective mechanisms for conflict resolution.

Costly conflict for all parties
 

Gamal Abdel-Gawad, director of the Public Policy Programme at the ECSS, described the current situation in the region as a costly conflict for all parties involved.

He stated that the regional security system is "in direct opposition to the current conflict," asserting that war fundamentally represents the use of power. He emphasized that establishing a security framework signifies an end to war.

He pointed out that medium-term understandings and compromises create conditions that reduce using violence in managing or resolving conflicts.

Abdel-Gawad stressed the need to distinguish between peace and stability to signal the end of conflict.

He noted that "peace, as a state of complete agreement and satisfaction, is unlikely to be achieved in the Middle East."

Abdel-Gawad said it is essential to refine ideas that focus on stability, which leads to reduced attraction of violence for all parties.

He warned that relying on the absence of violence, complete communication stability, and peace attainment "might not guarantee peace in the Middle East."

He noted that a middle-ground solution depends on addressing the root causes of direct violence without abandoning fundamental demands.

He noted that the conflict in the Middle East is defined in terms of the Arab East, potentially ignoring issues in the Horn of Africa, attributed to the differing nature of the actors involved.

Abdel-Gawad identified several security issues, emphasizing the need to establish multiple regional security systems.

“Conflicts in the region must be dealt with differently, as it is difficult to address them all at once," he said.

He outlined three main components in the East Mediterranean region: Gaza, Lebanon, and the Israel-Iran conflict, urging the development of distinct strategies for each.