New release: Demographics expert analyses Egyptian voting

Ahram Online, Sunday 24 Feb 2013

Akram Alfy relies on political demography analysis to predict voting in upcoming parliamentary elections

How Egyptians Vote
How Egyptians Vote

Kayf yosawet al misreyun … al dimographia al syasia wal suluk al tasweety ba'd thawret 25 yanayer (How Egyptians Vote … Political Demography and Vote Behaviours after January 25 Revolution) by Akram Alfy, Cairo: Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, 2013.

The new book by researcher Akram Alfy looks into Egyptians' voting power via a demographic analysis of the society. Alfy, whose thesis on political demography of the Hebrew state, draws the demographic map of Egypt and analyses two trends: the population's large and growing youth component and the increasing exodus from the villages to the cities.

Alfy refutes the argument that Islamists are bound to continue winning any elections in Egypt, reasoning that Egypt is divided into two blocks: one that is in full support of Islamist currents and a second that leans towards the secular current. The latter is mainly composed of urban residents, the middle class, the richer segments of the villages and where religious tension is lowest.

Akram Alfy concludes that the secular current is likely to increase its share in votes up to 40 percent, while the Islamists will likely exceed 45 percent, with the remaining undecided voters continuing to linger between stability and the need for change.

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