UN-Arab League envoy to Syria Lakhdar Brahimi on Saturday will embark on one of the most sensitive parts of his mission: meeting with embattled Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad.
Brahimi is tasked with mediating a viable deal on power transition between Al-Assad and top Syrian opposition figures, including armed factions. In the opinion of the Algerian diplomat's close associates, however, the mission will be close to impossible.
With so much blood shed between the regime and the heavily-armed anti-Assad insurgency (the latter of which is now being assisted by foreign Jihadists), getting both sides to sit down together to discuss political "transition" remains a tall order.
The idea of "transition" itself remains unclear, meaning different things to the different parties in the equation. According to most quarters of the Syrian opposition, transition means that the entire Assad regime must go, to allow for a transitional government and – eventually – free national elections.
For the regime, however, transition does not necessarily imply the president's departure – at least not immediately. Rather, it means that some opposition elements should be allowed into the government, pending early presidential elections that would decide Al-Assad's fate.
The latter scenario is unacceptable to all factions of the Syrian opposition, armed or not, which have taken part in the anti-Assad movement for almost one year and a half.
However, with concerns mounting among the opposition – especially among liberals and leftists – over the increasing influence of hard-line Sunni elements (with jihadist support), some opposition figures suggest that it might be wiser for Brahimi to pursue a more gradual transition, by which Al-Assad might step down without dismantling his entire regime.
"Some voice fears that if the entire regime, which is ultimately secular, is eliminated, it would lead to the 'Islamisation' of Syria, in line with the general trend of the 'Arab Spring' countries, such as Egypt, which been dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood," said a regional diplomat who took part in multilateral talks on Syria held last week in Cairo.
These "consultations" had brought together senior officials from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran. Meeting attendees say they agreed on the need for "transition" in Syria, but failed to see eye to eye on the nature of this transition or how it would be implemented.
The meeting took place as Brahimi was visiting Cairo, where he met with representatives of the Syrian opposition and Arab League officials. The get-together, however, failed to produce guidelines or a working plan that might have shed light on Brahimi's otherwise ambiguous mission – one which the veteran diplomat had been initially reluctant to take up.
"He initially hesitated, but felt obliged since he is aware of the extent of the atrocities going on in Syria, and because his good offices were called on by the Arab League," said one of the envoy's associates.
According to the same source, Brahimi, who takes over the unenviable task from former UN head Kofi Anan, is very realistic about what he can – and cannot – do. "He agreed to give it his best shot, but knows that the required ingredients for success have not been forthcoming," the source added.
Up until this point, neither the Arab League nor the UN has been able to agree on what to do with Syria. Even the Arab League's calls earlier this summer for the Syrian president to step down have all but dissipated, with Arab League Secretary-General Nabil El-Arabi telling journalists – at a joint press conference with Brahimi in Cairo last week – that the latter would ultimately take his own approach to the issue.
The only thing that is certain, say well-informed observers, is that neither the regime nor the opposition currently feels weak enough to make the concessions necessary to arrive at a viable deal.
According to one Damascus-based Western diplomat, the Assad regime "is getting significantly weaker," while the Syrian president is suffering defections, not only from within the regime but also from within his ruling minority Alawite sect. "But it's still too early to say the regime's falling apart," the diplomat noted.
Al-Assad, who has hardly any support left within the Arab world, still enjoys the firm backing of regional ally Iran, along with international heavyweights Russia and China.
According to informed foreign diplomats in Washington, the Syrian regime has used recent demonstrations at US embassies in Egypt, Libya and Yemen – held to protest a short film denigrating the Muslim Prophet Mohamed – to warn its detractors against the possible rise to power in Syria of Islamist hardliners.
"It's too early to assess the effectiveness of this scare campaign, but it's certainly expected to raise questions about what Washington has gained from its new policy of befriending political Islam," said one Washington-based Arab diplomat.
Meanwhile, the Syrian opposition is receiving more weapons and money from Arab and Western capitals. It is also receiving more militant jihadists from countries across the region, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Afghanistan.
"With each side digging in, it will be difficult for a mediator to hammer out a deal now," said the Damascus-based Western diplomat. And in the absence a political settlement, he added, "the bloodshed will only continue."
Brahimi, for his part, has set no time limit for his uncertain mission, but, as he told interlocutors in Cairo in recent days, it is not open-ended. If he fails to see any light at the end of the tunnel, these interlocutors say, Brahimi will not hesitate to wash his hands of the task and walk away.
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